Habs Stats: The First 55 games

After two regulation losses against divisional opponents Boston and Buffalo, and upcoming games versus Vegas, Colorado, and Buffalo, the chances of finishing this latest five-game sequence with a 0.600 record were quite slim. This was discounting the fact that the Habs tend to have their best games when playing the hottest teams in the league.

However, the Habs, with huge help from Jakub Dobes backstopping the team at a .928 save percentage in those three games, grabbed all the available points in the last three games while denying loser points to the Sabres in the process. The Habs and Sabres have traded two wins each in this year’s matchup. These two young teams could easily become the top two teams and biggest rivals in the Atlantic in the coming decade.

Statistically, the Habs remain in line with their yearly averages in most columns. Nonetheless, faceoffs have improved considerably in the last 10 games. Clearly, the arrival of Phillip Danault is showing its desired effect in the faceoff circle. That said, it has yet to yield improvement on the penalty kill so far.

This could take a little bit more time, though. Danault’s arrival and Jake Evans’ return may require more reps shorthanded to produce results. Special teams rely on particularly good chemistry and comfort levels on the ice as a group and often take more time to develop.

Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge are shown below. Not much has changed during the last five games compared to previous updates apart from the shooting percentage of 13% which has returned to the top of the league’s ranking. Zone time numbers remain middle-of-the-pack in both offensive and defensive zones.

That said, the zone time numbers on the penalty kill are difficult to understand in light of their 77% performance ranking 27th in the league. Montreal’s penalty kill ranks sixth in the NHL for the lowest defensive zone time at 56.6% and highest in the league in neutral zone time at 18.2%. These numbers should translate to a much more effective penalty kill. The Chicago Blackhawks, with a league-leading 85% success rate when shorthanded, have a defensive zone time of 58.0% and neutral zone time of 14.9%. The difference is not as surprising when you look at the two teams’ save percentages on the penalty kill. Chicago stands at .895 while the Canadiens are at .830. The goalie is always the most important player when shorthanded and these stats are a textbook example of that.

Compared to last year, the Habs are 14 points ahead after the 55-game mark.The team reached 69 points on March 12th last year, in game No. 65.

These recent three wins ensured that the Habs would remain above the playoff cut-off line and ahead of the Panthers, who still have games to play versus Buffalo, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Having their direct opponents battle against each other is the ideal scenario for the Habs before the team has a chance to regroup ahead of the final March stretch towards the playoffs.

Apart from Detroit, the top five teams in the Atlantic are keeping pace with each other recently. As a result, a separation is starting to widen between the playoff teams and the bottom of the division.  Florida is starting to struggle and while Toronto won out West, they’ve only won five of their last 13 games which won’t cut it in terms of trying to move up.

However, with the return of Linus Ullmark, Ottawa is showing signs of life, with wins in five of their last six games. The Senators have been playing well for most of the season but have had brutal goaltending all season. If Ullmark can find the form he has shown in the past, the Senators could be a candidate for a late push for a playoff spot. For them to fill the six-point gap to the playoff line, they will need a point percentage around .710 for the remainder of the season unless a team ahead completely melts down. The Boston Bruins, the second Wild Card team, are on pace for a 99-point season. The Senators will need to grab 37 of the 52 available points remaining this season to reach 100 points.