Habs Stats: The First Five Games

As the Habs are about to play their sixth game vs the New York Rangers with a 4W-1L record, let’s have a look at how the team is performing so far. The bottom line is, they’re doing great. Right? But are the results, the spectacular seat-edge finishes, and amazing flashes from our young stars hiding underlying statistics that could foreshadow some issues in the near future? Are they playing above their pay grade right now?

Before we look at the statistics and compare to last year, we should weigh in on the opposition. Although we don’t know where this season’s opponents will end up, we do know how they are doing so far. The average ranking of the teams they played so far is 12th. Last year, it was 14th (after game five). Last year, four of the five games were at the Bell Centre, this year it’s two out of five. All in all, a fair comparison.

As shown below, the Habs have outperformed significantly compared with last year’s first five games in many aspects, in particular, the shots against decreasing by nine shots per game. This explains the three fewer goals allowed this year through five games (including two empty netters in both seasons). On the other hand, they have scored five more goals this year so far even though they have had the same number of shots per game as last year with 26 (and no empty-net tallies).

Stats courtesy of the NHL’s EDGE website.

Looking at the PDO (shot percent + save percent) which is essentially a representation of “puck luck” where a value of 100% should be midway between lucky (above 100%) and unlucky (below 100%), the Habs seem to be more on the lucky side while opponents are “unlucky” against the Habs. Considering they have one more goal per game on average with the same number of shots supports the Habs’ “puck luck” so far this year.

Statistics presented by the NHL’s EDGE website also show the improvement of the Habs so far compared to the rest of the league. They are 11th in Offensive Zone time (compared to 27th last year total), 13th in Defensive Zone time (27th last year), and seventh in high danger chances (30th last year). These are huge improvements so far and clearly support Martin St-Louis’ comments that he feels his team has been very solid defensively after more than a year of working on their hybrid defensive zone structure. St-Louis was criticized early in the season last year and many were suggesting that the Habs return to an easier zone defence. St-Louis’ insistence has paid off so far this year.

St-Louis, after the last game vs Nashville, mentioned that his intentions will now shift towards offensive zone structures and strategies. More precisely, establishing different strategies depending on the defensive structure of the opponent. For example, forwards need to learn how to attack the areas between the zones covered by a zone defence but may choose to create two-on-ones against a man-to-man structure.

The team now stands at eight points in five games. Last year, the Habs reached the same result after the ninth game. They would not surpass the 0.500 mark in points until game number 40. Accumulating points early on is a net advantage over the season. In order to pass a team that is five points ahead, averaging 0.600 points percentage requires a 0.750 average points percentage over 34 games. This is why late-season runs like what the Habs did last year is not only spectacular but also not sustainable year after year.

With the news of injuries to Kaiden Guhle (4-6 weeks), Kirby Dach, and Patrik Laine (day-to-day), the task will be even more difficult. That said, before today, the Habs were the only team left with no injury time lost this year. It’s part of a long marathon season for every team. On the good side, seeing the pairings with Struble-Hutson and Carier-Xhekaj during Guhle’s absence is reassuring, and a testimony of the Habs’ D core depth. The Struble-Hutson pairing last year was very good. With 323 minutes of play together in 51 games, they were first on the team in expected goals percentage and fourth in the league for pairings with +200 minutes played together.