Following the Winning Blueprint

It has been a trend since the arrival of the Cap Era in the NHL that a team could compete with the Stanley Cup Champions by following their blueprint without having to break the bank. The salary cap eliminated the easy way of winning a Cup by essentially buying it. Although there were many examples of spectacular failures of such attempts, it remained a definite advantage over the years. Even during the Cap Era, teams are still trying to circumvent the rules by using LTIR money during the season and later take advantage of the lack of Cap limits during the playoffs. This year, the loophole was removed and it will be interesting to see how teams adapt over the years.

In this Cap Era, every time a new team raises the coveted trophy, other teams quickly look at the winning team’s recent draft/acquisition history, the individual players’ main attributes, the style of play, attitude, and anything else that may be perceived as the “key to their success”. This becomes an obsession when a team wins back-to-back championships. For the last two years, the Florida Panthers have been the blueprint to follow. For a rebuilding team to copy their process, it needs to go back to the beginning, namely the drafting/acquisition strategies that were used by the champions. Once that is accomplished, the rebuilding team can delve into more specific details of style of play, collective strategies, and even team management such as establishing an internal salary cap.

If we jump into the comparison bandwagon for the Habs, there are some interesting similarities that can’t be coincidental. Clearly, Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton had a plan that they knew worked in the past, and the current Panthers are proving them right. Below is a series of very basic comparisons between the Panthers’ and Habs’ rosters.

Note: Percentages were used due to the different number of players per roster.

The Habs are roughly four years younger than the Panthers on average. But interestingly, in both cases, nearly half the team’s players’ ages are within two years of the average. Both teams have a core of players of a similar age and, hence, maturity, experience, and understanding of the game. They will therefore reach their peak at approximately the same time.

Although it may seem obvious that this is an advantage and should be followed, it is quite difficult to ensure that the players of that age group, who are selected or acquired through trade, are also among the best in the NHL. Predicting a prospect’s ceiling is far from an exact science but basic statistics show that a prospect’s chance of playing a single game in the NHL decreases exponentially with their overall draft position. The comparison between the Panthers and Habs is quite revealing. Both rosters have a similar percentage of players selected in the first two rounds and the same overall average selection spot. Notably, the Panthers have three undrafted players, while the Habs have two. In those cases, they were positioned at Round 7, 220th overall (below the last draft selection over the years).

Can we expect a Stanley Cup in three or four years in Montreal based on this? No. That would be a gross oversimplification. Four years ago in the 2021-2022 season, the Panthers finished first overall and went on to lose in the second round to Tampa Bay. The following year, they lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Vegas Golden Knights and then went on to win two championships back-to-back. Only eight players from the 2021-2022 roster remain with the team this year. The Panthers have been quite aggressive over the last four years in acquiring pieces to reach their ultimate goal. They were in a different context than the current Habs. They had just finished first overall and were bona fide cup contenders. Being that close makes it much easier to sacrifice the long-term future to win now.

Based on what Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have been saying, it seems that they have chosen to diverge from the Panthers’ playbook. At least right now. They have said multiple times that they wish to be a contending team for many years. This requires them to have a constant flow of quality prospects in the pipeline that develop in the minors to become the core of the future. That approach lengthens the contending life of a team but pushes its beginning farther in time. Time will tell if fan/media pressure once they reach the top 10 of the overall standings will make them change their approach.