Fantasy Focus: Ivan Demidov

It’s rare that we typically do a Fantasy Focus piece on a rookie.  But Ivan Demidov projects to be a crucial player for the Habs right away and will be counted on to be a key producer even though he doesn’t even turn 20 until two months into the season.

2024-25

It would be fair to say that Demidov had an eventful year last season.  While he was generally one of SKA St. Petersburg’s top players when he got a chance to play an important role, his game-to-game playing time felt like it was being decided by a dart throw, a roll of dice, or a Magic 8 Ball.  There was no consistency from head coach Roman Rotenberg so Demidov could be on the top line one night, score a goal, and still be the 13th forward the next night.

The good news is that he got to experience some ups and downs which could potentially help him should he struggle at times with Montreal.  And after barely seeing any time at the KHL level the year before, the limited usage helped get him through a full KHL season (one that’s pretty long) without issue.  That’s not an entirely backhanded compliment either. That’s actually a legitimate positive as he gets set to play an 82-game campaign with the Habs.

Despite not finishing in the top ten among SKA forwards in ice time, Demidov led the team in scoring during the regular season and had three streaks of at least five straight games with a point.  In the playoffs, the restrictions came off as he was a full-timer in their top six.  But SKA was still eliminated in the first round and Demidov and the team worked out an early release, paving the way for Demidov to get into the final couple of games of the regular season in Montreal.

His NHL debut was, uh, decent.  All he did was get two points in the first period and had the Bell Centre buzzing with dreams of what’s to come.  (Yes, decent is an understatement.)  He wasn’t as impactful in the playoffs though and frankly, he looked a little overmatched at times but for a rookie with about a week of NHL experience, that’s not any reason to be concerned.  That was to be expected.  Still, his brief cameo in North America was quite promising which is a nice way to end his season.

Regular Season Stats (KHL): 65 GP, 19-30-49, +14, 22 PIMS, 0 PPG, 2 GWG, 160 shots, 13:45 ATOI
Playoff Stats (KHL): 6 GP, 3-2-5, -1, 4 PIMS, 1 PPG, 0 GWG, 22 shots, 17:03 ATOI

Regular Season Stats (NHL): 2 GP, 1-1-2, +1, 0 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 5 shots, 13:43 ATOI
Playoff Stats (NHL): 5 GP, 0-2-2, -5, 0 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 9 shots, 14:29 ATOI

5-Year Averages

Considering Demidov has all of two NHL regular season games under his belt, yeah, we’re skipping this section.

2025-26 Role

It’s fair to say that expectations are high for Demidov heading into the upcoming season.  After seeing Lane Hutson come in as a rookie and grab hold of a key role on the way to the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie, there are a lot of people thinking Demidov could come in and do the same.  He has the talent to make that happen although it will be interesting to see if he’ll be on a shorter leash early on than Hutson was.

At first glance, the logical landing spot for Demidov would be the second line, assuming that Nick Suzuki’s trio remains intact.  He and Patrik Laine would make for a very intriguing winger duo on that trio although the lack of a viable centre to get them the puck is a potential concern.  But it’s not often that a 19-year-old winger is a regular in the top-six.  Look at Juraj Slafkovsky from a couple of years ago as an example, a first-overall pick who spent the first couple of months in his sophomore year in the bottom six before getting the promotion.

Knowing that, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him handled with kid gloves, so to speak, early on.  If he has second-line minutes, maybe they don’t use him a ton on the power play.  Or if he’s viewed as a key piece on the man advantage (we’ll get there shortly), maybe he’s used in more of a third-line role at even strength with an eye on managing his ice time early on.  Basically, what they did with Slafkovsky in this situation a couple of years ago and even in Demidov’s limited NHL action last year.  Then, as the year goes on, they can start upping the ice time and responsibility.

As for the power play, this is an interesting one.  Late in the playoffs, the all-youngster power play (the one where Suzuki somehow was the elder statesman) showed some creativity and chaos, elements that are much needed.  On the other hand, Laine was elite on that top unit last season and probably shouldn’t lose his spot.  If Slafkovsky is viewed as the net-front player and Cole Caufield the opposite-wing shooter, there isn’t a spot for both Laine and Demidov on the top unit.  Again, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Demidov start on the second wave to get his feet wet and then as injuries or top unit struggles arise, he’d get his chance to stake his claim for a full-time role on the top wave.

Projected Stats

If everything went perfectly, could Demidov average a point per game this season?  I think there’s a chance he could.  But what are the odds of that happening?  Pretty low.

I expect Demidov is going to get the Slafkovsky treatment which means the playing time is going to be more limited than what a lot of people will want to see early on.  While Montreal is a little further ahead in their rebuilding plan now, they’re still going to want to play the long game when it comes to trying to maximize his development.  The end result should be an ATOI around the 16-minute mark.  Could that hurt his Calder Trophy chances?  Perhaps, but him winning that award isn’t the organization’s priority.

Put simply, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Demidov closer to the half-point-per-game mark for the first couple of months before moving up from there.  That will cap his overall offensive upside as a result compared to what it could be a year or two from now.  For single-season leagues, you’ll want to consider his usage more than anything and rank him accordingly to avoid the risk of grabbing him too early.  But he’s someone who could be a big difference maker in the second half so be patient if he’s quiet out of the gate.  Meanwhile, if he’s up for grabs in the first time in a dynasty league, he’ll be one of the top rookies (if not the top rookie) off the board.

The sky is the limit for Demidov but chances are that we won’t see the peak of that upside at any point this season.  But even with that, he should be one of Montreal’s better offensive performers.

GP: 80
Goals: 25
Assists: 32
Points: 57
+/-: -9
PIMS: 18
PPG: 4
GWG: 3
Shots: 178