Fantasy Focus: Noah Dobson

Montreal swung one of the biggest trades of the summer when they acquired Noah Dobson from the Islanders.  What should they be expecting from him in 2025-26?

2024-25

After a breakout showing that saw him reach 70 points and finish in the top ten in Norris Trophy voting, expectations were sky-high for Dobson.  In his first full season under Patrick Roy (a more offensive-minded coach), some wondered if he might even approach the point per game mark.  He had a lot to live up to.

It didn’t happen.  While the Islanders were better offensively last season by 18 goals, they still were below league average in that regard.  Meanwhile, their power play fell off a cliff.  After running at a clip of just over 20% in 2023-24, it plummeted to 12.5% last season.  Not surprisingly, Dobson’s power play point total dropped by more than half which contributed to his drop in production.

Dobson got off to a quiet start last season, scoring just once in the first two months of the campaign while only picking up nine assists along the way.  He was starting to turn things around as he improved to 14 points between December and January but a lower-body injury sustained in late January derailed any possible momentum, keeping him out for more than a month.  Upon returning, he was able to at least get back to that midseason level, chipping in with 15 points in 24 games over the final two months.

Regular Season Stats: 71 GP, 10-29-39, -16, 28 PIMS, 1 PPG, 1 GWG, 196 shots, 23:16 ATOI

5-Year Averages

(2020-21’s numbers have been extrapolated to an 82-game season.)

GP: 75
Goals: 10
Assists: 36
Points: 46
+/-: E
PIMS: 23
PPG: 2
GWG: 2
Shots: 173

2025-26 Role

We know Dobson is going to play a big role for the Habs.  After all, you don’t trade two first-round picks plus a solid young winger in Emil Heineman to acquire a player and then sign him to the richest contract given to a skater in franchise history to not have him play big minutes.  But there are a few options in terms of who he might play with.

In terms of finding the best complementary fit, it’s Kaiden Guhle.  Dobson is prone to some fumbles with the puck as most puck-handlers often are so having a reliable defensive partner with him makes sense.  Also, Guhle has a solid understanding of when to jump into the play offensively and some good enough offensive instincts to not hold Dobson back on that front.

Then there’s Lane Hutson.  Putting the two top offensive blueliners together with the Nick Suzuki line could allow for plenty of offensive zone pressure.  That’s something that could be tempting for Martin St. Louis.  Mike Matheson is the other top-four defender and the two share similar strengths which could help them offensively.  They also share similar weaknesses but pairing them would allow Guhle and Hutson – a duo that finished up strong together – to stay together.  Either way, at five-on-five, there are some options for Dobson but he’ll be in a key spot on the depth chart whichever way it goes.

One area that might be different for Dobson is on the power play.  He was the anchor of New York’s man advantage in recent years.  While it’s possible that he is at times, it’d be hard to pull Hutson off the top wave.  Maybe they go with two blueliners at times which they could probably get away with considering their track records and Dobson being a legitimate shooting threat.  Failing that, Dobson would anchor the second wave but a dip in playing time with the man advantage is a real possibility.

In terms of the penalty kill, that hasn’t been a role Dobson has filled full-time in recent years.  He has done it at times but it’s usually more of a secondary or tertiary role when he plays there.  But with the Habs not wanting Hutson killing penalties and not trusting Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj to do so, Dobson might have to play more of a role here than he’s used to.

Projected Stats

There is a wide range of possible outcomes for Dobson this season.  If he sees a lot of ice time with the Suzuki line plus top power play minutes, he could plausibly come within striking distance of the 70 points he had in 2023-24.  On the other hand, if Hutson gets the prime offensive action and Dobson is more with the second line and second power play, it wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprising if he came in around the 39 points he had last season.

The safe bet is that he’s going to fall somewhere between those two extremes.  Personally, I think the 51 and 49 points he put up in 2021-22 and 2022-23 might be the sweet spot for expectations, acknowledging that Hutson should get the biggest offensive share.  And if the Habs have a second defender pushing around 50 points (plus Matheson still in the fold), that’s a pretty good spot to be in.

I do think we’ll see a couple of changes from his usual stats, however.  Dobson has averaged around 2.5 shots per game over the last four seasons but that has been as the go-to offensive threat on the back end.  If his power play time drops, that number should come down.  On the flip side, a bigger penalty killing role than usual could see his block rate go up.  He was at 1.77 per game last season and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see that tick up over two.  If you have a pool with those categories, adjust your rankings accordingly a little bit.

Early rankings for Dobson have him typically in the 14-18 range among defenders.  Frankly, that seems a little high if you’re like me and thinking the 50-point range is likelier than getting back near his career high since he won’t be the only go-to offensive threat from the back end as he was with the Islanders.  I’d have him in the early 20s in defensive rankings which is still going to have him going off the board within the top 100 in most leagues.

GP: 78
Goals: 10
Assists: 38
Points: 48
+/-: +3
PIMS: 32
PPG: 1
GWG: 2
Shots: 179