Montreal’s Playoff Run Showed How Far They Have Come and How Far They Still Have to Go

While the Habs went out in five games at the hands of Washington in the opening round of the playoffs, they were still able to show how far along the rebuild has come.  At the same time, they also showed they have a long way to go to become contenders.

While the theme of the season was that management was hoping the team would be ‘in the mix’, those expectations seemed a little lofty.  After all, this was a team that didn’t make the playoffs last season and got arguably worse relative to the roster they had for most of last year before Sean Monahan left.  Yes, Patrik Laine’s addition provided some optimism heading into the season but there’s a reason that a lot of predictions had them safely missing the playoffs.

However, some things went Montreal’s way this season.  As they hoped, the top line continued to improve, giving them a number one unit that is comparable to other top trios around the league.  That’s a key development, especially with all three players signed for at least five more years.  That’s a big item on the rebuild checklist checked off.  Ivan Demidov certainly didn’t look out of place in his limited action either which is quite encouraging.

Lane Hutson’s breakout year also certainly went Montreal’s way.  While expectations were fairly high, there was at least some tempering down early on to allow him time to adapt.  Instead, he impressed early and only got better as the year went on, vaulting himself into Calder Trophy contention along the way.  It’s safe to say the organization couldn’t be happier with how Hutson’s rookie year went.

Even the goaltending went relatively well.  Samuel Montembeault held his own under a much larger workload and more importantly, he had some success during the stretch run and played well in his limited playoff run.  Cayden Primeau had a year to forget in the NHL but that provided an opportunity for Jakub Dobes to come up earlier than the team probably would have liked.  That said, Dobes showed well enough in the second half of the year that there’s a case to make that he can be the backup next year (and ideally not make Montembeault play 60 games again).  That’s certainly a positive.

When most of the young nucleus of a team is on the way up development-wise and the team winds up making the playoffs, things are definitely looking up from a long-term perspective.

But it also should be noted that the standings situation couldn’t have gone much better for the Canadiens this season.  Instead of phasing out of the playoffs, Boston nosedived.  The Rangers had a brutal year that few saw coming.  Detroit and Philadelphia took steps back and the end result was that a so-so team was going to get in with a point total that, in most years, isn’t quite good enough to get there.  That’s not Montreal’s fault for taking advantage but it’s something to at least acknowledge when looking ahead; the standings probably won’t break quite that way again next season.

Additionally, this season showed there are some holes that still need to be filled.  Until those are properly dealt with, it’s going to be hard for the Canadiens to get to that next tier.

For starters, the defence didn’t take a big step forward this year, particularly in the defending department.  Yes, Alexandre Carrier’s acquisition was a big help but he’s ideally more of a depth player, not someone whose presence should be making quite that big of a difference.  With David Savard going, they have precisely three defenders that they trust to kill penalties.  In a perfect world, that should be at least five.  That needs to be addressed.

And while learning curves for blueliners are understandably longer and more gradual, there is no way to fast-forward that development.  Basically, the youngsters still have a lot of improvement to make and that’s probably going to take more time, especially if one of David Reinbacher, Logan Mailloux, or Adam Engstrom gets into the mix next season.  They could try to move a youngster or two to get an extra veteran in to raise the floor of the back end but doing so probably lowers the overall ceiling.  This one can’t really be fixed or sped up, it’s just something they’re going to have to deal with.

The hope was that Kirby Dach could come back from his knee injury and perhaps show the promise from the second half of the season two years ago to fill that second centre position.  We know that didn’t happen and then he went and got another knee injury.  While they can be optimistic about him still being an impactful player, they can’t go into next season with him as the 2C, not if they’re serious about trying to stay in the playoffs.

Alex Newhook isn’t the solution for that spot either.  He has a place on this team but it’s not there.  Owen Beck and Oliver Kapanen could one day get there although they’re not ready yet.  Michael Hage could also be in the mix down the road but not for a while.  This is a spot that’s not easy to fill but until they have a proper second centre, the second line isn’t going to be able to score enough to help this team find another gear.

Personally, I’d like to see that centre be more of a proven veteran.  It’s great that the youngsters largely played well in the playoffs but good teams have contributing veterans to help shoulder the load.  The Habs have some serviceable veterans up front in more limited roles that can help but as we saw, short of one of them getting on a hot streak offensively, those players can’t be counted on for much.  While it’s easy to get younger as more prospects get integrated, there also needs to be an influx of an extra veteran or two to counterbalance that and take some pressure off the top youngsters.  All contending teams have that mix.

There’s also a depth issue with this team.  Granted, that’s to be expected after selling off for several years and the hope is that some prospects will develop and take those spots.  But in the playoffs, one injury up front saw the Habs choosing between a prospect who has yet to score in the NHL and a grinder who can’t be trusted to play five minutes.  Contenders have much better options than that and ideally a player or two who can fill a certain specialist role; the Habs aren’t there yet.

In a perfect world, a contending team should have seven top-six forwards.  When everyone’s healthy, a top-six guy on the third line helps create another line with some firepower.  Again, most contenders have that.  Montreal has three top-six guys and hopes that Demidov can be number four.  With a lot of team control on those players, that’s a terrific start.  But it also ends there.  Dach and Newhook aren’t there yet and while a healthy and motivated Laine could be, both of those elements are big questions heading into next season.  Filling three of those spots probably isn’t happening over the course of one summer.

Defensively, I take a similar approach.  If you have five top-four guys, you’re going to be in good shape compared to the top teams.  The Habs have three – Hutson, Kaiden Guhle, and Mike Matheson (who is a year away from UFA status).  Reinbacher and Mailloux could get there one day but probably not for a bit.  I like Carrier but he’s best off as a third-pairing guy who moves up when there are injuries.  Most of what the Habs have left either in Laval or in the NHL (Arber Xhekaj and Jayden Struble) probably aren’t getting to a top-four level.  Even if you can fill one internally, there’s still at least one external need, two if Matheson walks in 2026.  Again, this probably isn’t getting fixed in one offseason.

This isn’t to be critical of how the rebuild has gone.  So far, things are definitely looking up.  But before you start dreaming of a playoff series victory, some of these needs have to be addressed.  And if you want to think of them as a contender, most, if not all, of these have to get dealt with.  That’s still probably two or three years away, even.  Patience is something we’ve needed a lot of in recent years but a lot more is needed before the Habs can get to the level of a sustainable contender which is where Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have said they want to take this team.  The playoffs were a small taste but there is a long way to go yet to properly finish this rebuild.