Fantasy Focus: Kaiden Guhle

Offensively, Kaiden Guhle probably isn’t going to produce enough to make a big difference on that front.  But the other elements he brings to the table are valuable to the Habs and potentially valuable in fantasy leagues.

2023-24

After missing nearly half of his rookie season due to injury, one of the early-season goals for Guhle was simply to stay healthy.  That didn’t happen as he sustained an upper-body injury in the third game of the season although he only missed four games with the issue.  Upon returning, he had one of his better segments of the season, finishing the first quarter with seven points.

He stayed healthy for the second and third quarters of the year but his offensive production dropped considerably.  That said, it’s worth noting that along the way, he moved to his off-side.  That move coincided with spending a lot of time on the top pairing, especially as the year went on.

Guhle was able to finish relatively strong…sort of.  Over the final quarter of the season, he had seven points in 13 games which was good to see.  It’s not enough to suggest he’s capable of maintaining that heading into this season but it’s a positive nonetheless.  However, his year ended early after suffering a head injury.

Stats: 70 GP, 6-16-22, -8, 56 PIMS, 0 PPG, 1 GWG, 95 shots, 20:51 ATOI

As we did with Juraj Slafkovsky, we’re going to skip the averages section.  With Guhle’s rookie campaign being a half-season, there isn’t enough of a track record to make any sort of meaningful projections based on averages.

2024-25 Role

A lot will depend on if the coaching staff decides to continue the experiment with playing Guhle on his off-side.  As things stand, the Canadiens only have two right-shot defenders who appear to be locked into a roster spot, David Savard and Justin Barron (whose waiver eligibility locks him in).  Barring a rookie making it, one of the lefties is going to have to move over.  Guhle is probably the early favourite to do so and if that happens, he’ll likely play big minutes on the top pairing with Mike Matheson.

If they try someone else on that side (or one of Logan Mailloux or David Reinbacher makes the roster), Guhle likely starts on the second pairing behind Matheson.  With it still being early in his career, that wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing to start, allowing him to get at least a little easier of a workload.  In that scenario, he’d likely play alongside Barron, a duo that was one of Montreal’s most-used last season before Guhle moved up with Matheson.

From a special teams perspective, Guhle has seen spot duty here and there on the power play in his first two seasons.  It would be surprising to see him even get that much this season.  If Lane Hutson is up, he’ll run one of the pairings and if he’s not, Barron and Arber Xhekaj could run the second wave, freeing up Guhle for more even-strength minutes.  He will, however, play a regular role on the penalty kill.  He generally was on the second wave before but it wouldn’t shock me if they move him to the top group and Matheson to the second at times.

Projected Stats

With Kirby Dach returning, the acquisition of Patrik Laine, and the possible presence of Hutson on the roster (plus ideally continued progression from the young core), there’s room for optimism that Guhle will be able to improve upon his point total from last season.  If he stays healthy (admittedly, that’s a big if), surpassing the 30-point plateau is a realistic outcome.

On its own, that point total isn’t enough to merit much consideration unless it’s in a particularly deep league.  However, for points-based pools with multiple scoring categories or head-to-head leagues, Guhle becomes a bit more intriguing.  He was five shots shy of being a member of the triple-100 club last season; had he stayed healthy, he’d have gotten there.

Why does this matter?  There were fewer than 50 players last season who had 100 shots, 100 blocks, and 100 hits.  If Guhle can get there, being a stat-stuffer in those categories with a bit more offence would make him much more valuable, either as a late-round pick in medium-sized leagues or a decent fourth option in deeper pools.  He’s not going to be one of the first Habs off the board but for some leagues, he’s worth keeping an eye on as your draft progresses.

GP: 75
Goals: 8
Assists: 20
Points: 28
+/-: -12
PIMS: 66
PPG: 0
GWG: 1
Shots: 105