Fantasy Focus: Josh Anderson
Last season was an ugly one for Canadiens winger Josh Anderson, to put it lightly. Will he be able to rebound in 2024-25 and become at least a bit more reliable as a secondary scorer?
2023-24
Last season was not a case of things starting well and then going by the wayside as the year went on. No, it started badly and stayed that way. For context, through the first quarter of the season, Anderson scored as many goals as anyone reading this sentence. For one of the highest-paid players on the team, there was no sugarcoating things. It wasn’t for a lack of shots (he had 42 through 20 games) but nothing was going in.
It eventually took until Game 25 for Anderson to get one in the goal column, albeit into an empty net. While it might not seem like much, that did seem to help a bit from a confidence perspective as he had six goals and three assists in 13 December games. That provided at least a bit of hope that he was starting to figure things out.
Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. As soon as the calendar flipped to 2024, things went off the rails once again. Rather than breaking it down into two segments, let’s just look at the combined numbers. Over the final 42 games, Anderson had just three goals and six assists. Along the way, his ice time started to drop as he was moved into the bottom six with some regularity before injuries moved him back up the depth chart. In essence, last season was a year of everything going wrong for Anderson.
Stats: 78 GP, 9-11-20, -18, 74 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 141 shots, 15:28 ATOI
4 Year Averages
(With Anderson missing most of 2019-20 due to injury, we’ll omit those from the averages and just focus on his time with the Habs. The stats for 2020-21 are extrapolated to an 82-game rate.)
GP: 73
Goals: 19
Assists: 11
Points: 30
+/-: -16
PIMS: 67
PPG: 2
GWG: 2
Shots: 160
2024-25 Role
Last season, Anderson bounced around the depth chart more than most players. He saw time on all four lines, playing both wings along the way. Aside from not playing centre, he pretty much did it all in terms of where he lined up.
I can’t help but think we’ll see that again this season. While it rarely has worked before, we know at some point, they’re going to try him on the top line whenever either it falters or they break it up to try to get a second offensive trio going. He could see time with Kirby Dach on a second line that could certainly bring some size to the table as well.
But of course, as someone who has typically been a streaky scorer throughout his career, it’s fair to suggest that Anderson will also spend a fair bit of time in the bottom six. Knowing that Martin St. Louis doesn’t hesitate to play wingers on their off-side (often preferring it), I expect we’ll see Anderson shifting between the wings once again on a fairly regular basis.
On special teams, Anderson took a regular turn on the second wave of the power play last season, moving up at times as well. The power play isn’t a particularly optimal spot for someone who does a lot of damage off the rush but as a big body, he should be in a similar role this season. As for the penalty kill, it’s a role he played a bit early in his career but very rarely with the Habs and I don’t sense that will change.
Projected Stats
I expect Anderson will be more productive in 2024-25. First, in five of the previous six seasons before 2023-24, he had a shooting percentage of at least 10.1%. The one he didn’t is the injury-riddled 2019-20 campaign when he was playing through a shoulder injury. Generally speaking, he’s a safe bet to be in the double-digit mark for shooting percentage. Last year, he checked in at 6.4%, half of what his rate was the year before. This isn’t a stat that is the greatest at predicting things but that’s enough of a track record to suggest to me that he’s due to rebound somewhat.
If you’re looking for a more modern stat, let’s look at xGF. Per MoneyPuck, Anderson had the fifth-highest expected goal total on the Habs a year ago, checking in at 18.4. He had half of that. Being pretty much 50% off that xGF total also feels like an outlier. Going back to his first three seasons with the Habs, Anderson’s actual goal total was within four of his xGF (sometimes above, sometimes below.) It feels like he should be able to close that gap.
But with a limited assist total, Anderson’s overall utility in most fantasy leagues is limited. He’s not going to pick up enough points to be valuable in regular points leagues. He is a bit of a better fit in head-to-head leagues as his goals usually outweigh his assists while he has been a bit of a volume shooter in the past and picks up hits and penalty minutes at an above-average rate. In deeper leagues like that, he might be worth a late-round look. Move him down in the rankings if those last two categories are negatives in your scoring system, however.
GP: 76
Goals: 17
Assists: 13
Points: 30
+/-: -15
PIMS: 72
PPG: 1
GWG: 2
Shots: 171