Writers Weigh In: Discussing Guhle’s Extension

While it took longer to get done than Juraj Slafkovsky’s new deal, the Habs were able to get Kaiden Guhle signed to a six-year, $33.3 million extension last week.  Our writers offer up their thoughts on the contract.

Terry Costaris: I’m happy with the Guhle extension. He is a special player who, if all goes right, will be a key anchor on Montreal’s defence during its contention window. The key word here is “if.”

The only reason that Guhle was not signed for more money was his injury history. So, a compromise deal with reduced term, lower salary, the use of bonuses, delayed non-trade clauses, and the like, helps make him more movable in the event that things go south.

This signing was as conservative a deal as one could hope for, leaving both parties reasonably happy in the end.

Guhle’s contract is yet another savvy display of GMsmanship ^TM by Kent Hughes.

Much of the team’s core has now been locked in during what should be during its likely window of contention with money to spare for the acquisition of high-end traded talent and/or coveted free agents.

As a longtime Habs fan, I’ve seen decades of promising Hab prospects suffer career-debilitating injuries- many in ways that only a Hollywood writer could conjure up. I don’t believe in bad luck but I can understand why many of this team’s supporters feel that there is a “curse” in this regard. Here’s hoping that Guhle puts on 10-15 more pounds of muscle, improves his situational awareness/timing, and becomes the star player that he seems destined to become.

Under the right circumstances, Kaiden Guhle would have signed for more. But the kid will now be richer than 99.9999% of anyone reading this column. Hab management has secured a signee with as reasonable an insurance clause as could be possibly be expected. So, this is a win-win for all parties.

Allan Katz: With all the Habs’ housework done, everyone needs to take a breath and refresh because for the next 24 months, the Habs’ defensive corps competition is going to be an insane experience to watch. Guhle’s contract fits the timeline for this team and the dollars seem to match up with his talent. The famed ground floor level for the young man is a second-pairing defensive stud with some offensive gifts for a Stanley Cup contender. He has one more year on his entry-level contract so this is essentially a seven-year deal.

To be honest, signing a $33-million-dollar deal is really beyond my comprehension. We can safely say this solid player is or will be either worthy of this contract or underpaid. It might take a year or two, but if a storm is coming the management has hatched down the schooner and now the tough part of running this team is about to begin and it will be scary.

There are 11 high-end defensive talents belonging to Montreal and over the next two years, four or five of them might be traded. Depending on who the Habs are offered (what if it was a Tkachuk brother or someone of equal or more talent) any of the three defencemen just signed could be traded including Guhle. Some of us are going to feel ill as our beloved young crew will have to be thinned out. By completing the housecleaning with Guhle’s quite fair deal the next news event could be a huge trade.

P.S. – Doubt it will be Guhle but you never know. Weirder things have happened.

Brian La Rose: When Alex Vlasic signed a six-year, $27.6 million contract earlier this offseason, that set the floor for this type of contract if the Habs wanted to do a similar length with Guhle.  Truth be told, this price feels a bit high when directly comparing the two (though it’s worth noting Guhle’s starts a year later when the salary cap should be a few million higher which accounts for some of that difference).  I’d say Guhle is better, but perhaps not $900,000 per season better with the questions that still exist.

Without hammering home too much on those, I have questions about his ability to stay healthy and questions about whether he can put up the type of offensive numbers needed to justify that price tag.  That’s why I’m a bit surprised they did this deal now; I don’t think there was much risk in waiting as I don’t think he has a big offensive jump coming that was going to push the asking price much higher next summer.  I think this deal or something pretty close would have been available 12 months from now.

It’s not that I really dislike the contract.  Guhle is a big part of Montreal’s plans, that much is obvious.  This deal gets a couple of extra years of team control and with his camp admitting to asking for Jake Sanderson money ($8.05 million per season) initially when discussing a max-term deal, the two sides clearly weren’t going to line up on that type of contract.  And again, with his injury history, I’m not sure I’d have wanted eight years either.

When you look at the big-money deals the Habs have handed out to members of their young core, be it Nick Suzuki under Marc Bergevin or Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky under Hughes, there was (or still is) a possibility for those deals to become team-friendly.  I don’t see that upside here, not when players like Mike Matheson, Lane Hutson, and Logan Mailloux are going to command the power play minutes to inflate the offensive stats to make this a bargain down the road.

As long as he stays healthy and in a similar role as he’s had the last two seasons, this deal should age well.  But there isn’t as much surplus value potential as there is with Montreal’s other core pieces.

Kevin Leveille: Much like the Slafkovsky extension, I am a big fan of the signing. In this case, there is relatively little to no risk. The AAV of the deal is essentially paying Guhle for what he is right now, an excellent second-pairing defenceman who is capable on the top pair, but won’t stand out in that position. Much like Slafkovsky, these aren’t the players you worry about their AAV because if they don’t work out in their roles, your rebuild is pretty much toast anyways. $5.5 million for a 3D is excellent and is going to be awesome by the time this deal expires, so I have absolutely zero concern with the number.

Many will clamour that it would have been nice to get a longer term on the deal considering Guhle’s importance to the team. I get the argument, but the counter in my mind is that Guhle has had some injury issues in the past and should those resurface and the team ultimately decides to move forward because they have too many of their long list of prospects that have panned out better, then the deal is easily moveable whereas a long-term deal is harder to get off the books. Also, I firmly believe that added years would have significantly bumped up the AAV, and it’s better to deal with those years once you have a better idea of the longevity and significance of the player to your organization. All that to say I think this a very positive signing for the team, its future, and a cap-friendly one at that.

Peter Longo: With up-and-coming prospects pushing for NHL playing time, the Habs are going to see leadership turnover on the blueline this season. In the next generation of defencemen, there’s no question Guhle has quickly established himself in the top four by playing over 20 minutes a night, often against top opposition while still contributing some offence with 22 points over 70 games last season. So. locking Guhle up for six years will provide some much-needed stability on the back end. And seeing how consistently Guhle has played, there’s isn’t much risk in signing him now rather than waiting until his rookie contract is done.

Having said that, I think the Habs overpaid for what Guhle brings to the table. Looking at Guhle’s stats and playing time, he’s actually very similar to David Savard ($3.5M cap hit). Don’t get me wrong, Guhle was thrust into top four minutes and has played very good and very consistent hockey since day one. And while the team has to be very happy with that, there haven’t been strong improvement steps in his game like we’ve seen with someone like Suzuki. I don’t envision Guhle on the power play or scoring 40 points. I think what we’ve seen so far is what we’ll get from Guhle, a good skating, good transitional defenceman. If he can become like Jeff Petry (30-40 points, 2nd power play, mobile defencemen) it’ll be a great contract. I just don’t see him getting to that next level.

Overall, there’s lots to like about the deal and if the team does end up overpaying by $1-2M a year, it’s not the end of the world. It will be more palatable as well if the NHL salary cap increases over the next six to seven years.

Dave Woodward: One should always agree to pay for future rather than past performance.  NHL GMs seem to have finally acknowledged this, given the league-wide trend towards locking up core players a year before their entry-level deals expire.  With the salary cap, this strategy seems to be more prudent than allocating valuable cap space on UFA deals that inevitably overcompensate veterans in the later years of those deals.  Kaiden Guhle’s contract is yet another example of this trend.

Of course, there is a limited body of work for the Canadiens to assess whether Guhle is part of the core long-term.  He has been injury-prone and has only played 114 games.  However, when Guhle has been in the lineup, the left-handed defender has matched up relatively well against some of the league’s elite talent, often while playing on the right side due to the lack of depth on that side.  Guhle is also a physical defenceman who can join the rush and add some offence, albeit not at an elite level.  Of the up-and-coming Hab defenders who have seen a fair amount of NHL time, Guhle is probably the most likely to be on their top pairing and his floor, when healthy, is likely that of a top-four defender.

All long-term contracts involve a reasonable amount of risk.  Six years is an eternity in professional hockey and a lot can change with the team and the player.  Despite the limited body of work, subject to durability concerns, the six-year term is probably a reasonable gamble on the 21-year-old defender.  Barring injuries, there is a high likelihood that Guhle will improve and at the very least remain a solid NHL defenceman over the term of the deal.  As noted, he may even become part of the top pairing, in which case the Canadiens will probably end up wishing they signed him for eight years.

As for the cap hit, at first glance, it seems high compared to the Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron deals.  However, with the organizational depth on the blueline, it remains unclear whether either of Barron or Xhekaj will be with the Canadiens long term, especially Barron.   Conversely, barring health issues, Guhle has proven that he is part of the future Canadiens’ blueline, at least for the medium term.   And if he only reaches his floor as a top-four defender, is a $5.5 million AAV a problem with the cap rising?   Not really.   Of course, if Guhle becomes a top pairing defenceman, this deal will be a bargain.

One could reasonably counter that another year or half-year should have been used to evaluate Guhle’s progress before committing to him in a long-term deal.  There is merit to this.  However, even if Guhle plateaus, the price would not have gone down.  A bridge deal with a rising cap would also have been a mistake.  If Guhle progressed or even plateaued over either the next year or the term of a bridge deal, the cap hit would end up higher.

Although there is risk in committing that much term and cap space on a young player who has yet to fully establish himself, the contract locks up their best young NHL defender at a defensible cap hit.  It may also establish a ceiling for the salaries of the Habs’ young defenceman in the medium term as they exit their entry-level deals.  This scribbler would also much rather sign a promising 21-year-old defenceman to a six-year deal than sign a UFA to a long-term contract.  On balance, the Guhle contract seems like a reasonable wager that will likely pay dividends.