Rafael Harvey-Pinard: From Future Regular To Bubble Player

This time a year ago, Rafael Harvey-Pinard looked like a potential part of Montreal’s long-term plans.  However, after how poorly things went last season, he stands out as someone whose spot on the roster next season could be in some jeopardy.

In 2022-23, Harvey-Pinard had a strong first half with Laval, showing his offensive breakout the year before wasn’t a fluke.  That earned him a midseason recall and from there, he was up the rest of the way aside from a final-week appearance with Laval for their playoff push.

Notably, with the Canadiens, Harvey-Pinard continued to produce at an impressive, albeit unsustainable rate.  He had 14 goals in 34 games with a shooting percentage of 24.1%, more than double the league average.  But thanks to his offensive touch, energy, and the litany of injuries they were dealing with, he spent a lot of time with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki and didn’t look out of place.  That helped him earn a two-year, one-way contract with a cap hit of $1.1 million per season.

While many acknowledged that a top-line role wasn’t the best fit for him, the belief was that Harvey-Pinard’s playing style made him a fit for the bottom six with the ability to produce if moved up the lineup when injuries arose.  Those types of players aren’t generally going to command a lot of attention but they certainly can be valuable, making him a candidate to be a longer-term support piece for the Habs.

The first attempt at proving that didn’t go quite so well, however.  For starters, instead of being the player who moves up when injuries arose, he was often injured himself; Harvey-Pinard missed 37 games due to three separate lower-body injuries.  That made it hard for him to get much going and it showed.  When he was in the lineup, the 25-year-old managed just two goals and eight assists in 45 games despite averaging a little under 13 minutes a night; it’s not as if he was mired on the fourth line getting Michael Pezzetta-level minutes.

The underlying numbers weren’t great either.  While he was a decent penalty killer in relative terms (the unit as a whole wasn’t exactly good most nights), his possession numbers weren’t pretty, nor were the expected goal rates.  That, coupled with the actual limited production, paints the picture of someone who is more of a bubble player than a possible multi-year piece in the bottom six.

Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t intended to be a hit piece; Harvey-Pinard certainly could turn things around.  But right now, he likely projects as the 12th or 13th forward on this roster when everyone is healthy and that’s not factoring in the potential for a youngster like Joshua Roy or Owen Beck to come in and make the team or any other moves made via trade or free agency that adds to their current forward group.

As things stand, Juraj Slafkovsky is the only waiver-exempt player who’s a lock to make the team.  I think it’s safe to say he’s not going to the minors.  So, if they need to open up a spot, who could be the odd one out?

Joel Armia cleared waivers last season but was one of Montreal’s better players in the second half of last season.  Barring a rough training camp, I don’t see them going that route again.  Michael Pezzetta doesn’t play much but he’s a better fit for a depth role than Harvey-Pinard and frankly, is likelier to be claimed off waivers if it came to that.  And while some of you are probably saying what about Josh Anderson or Christian Dvorak, that’s not happening.

With Harvey-Pinard still being relatively unproven, coming off a down year, and carrying a seven-figure cap hit (and salary, for that matter), I don’t think there’s any sort of viable trade market for him at the moment.  I’m also not certain there are many teams who would be willing to take a flyer on a waiver claim with that cap charge and salary.  Look at Rem Pitlick’s situation from a couple of years ago, there are some similarities in terms of money and circumstance and he made it through unclaimed more than once.

That’s why I have Harvey-Pinard squarely in bubble territory.  He could very well make the team out of camp, get off to a better start, and re-establish himself as someone who could be around for a bit.  But if the Habs do anything else up front, he could very well be the casualty as well.  It’s not a spot many thought he’d be in at this time a year ago but it’s safe to say that training camp in the fall is going to be quite important for him.