#LAKings Kings midseason analysis: Potential with a chance of pitfalls (Daily News)
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Eighty-two games have become 29 as the Kings stare down a trail that should lead them back to the playoffs for a second consecutive season and afford them an opportunity to advance in the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade.
They sit in a points tie for first place in the Pacific Division after going 13-6-1 in their past 21 games, tying for the best points total in the Western Conference during that span. Only Boston, which the Kings defeated to start their run, and Carolina, which rallied from three goals down to saddle the Kings with an overtime loss heading into the All-Star break, have owned better marks in the past quarter of the NHL schedule.
But the Kings will need to stay sharp given that the three teams within three or fewer points of the Kings all have at least three games in hand on them. The developments to date and a glimpse ahead show a team with tremendous potential, but also indicate some possible pitfalls as temperatures rise and the quest for Lord Stanleys Cup intensifies.
Reaching this point
Initially, Coach Todd McLellan described his roster as one striving for an identity, then as one that miscast itself as a run-and-gun roster, then as one that was part of the majority of teams seeking consistency and, lately, as a group thats begun to find itself and sustain its efficacy for longer periods.
The Kings current position is an enviable but precarious one, perhaps most succinctly evidenced by their goal differential. Of the top 19 teams by record at the break, the Kings are the only one with a negative goal differential. The other four teams sitting atop their division have goal differentials ranging from plus-26 (Seattle) to plus-81 (Boston), with the Kings negative-10 differential placing them among the also-rans, 22nd in the league.
By McLellans own assessment, the season so far would receive a grade of incomplete. From their own netfront to the locales where they have prospects playing around the world, the Kings will shape their destiny in tiny crevices and open spaces alike in the next three months.
In the cage
Statistically speaking, the Kings goaltending was at or near the bottom of the league, though that changed with the radical decision to demote Cal Petersen to the minors. Initially viewed as a period where Petersen would recuperate his form and veteran Jonathan Quick would carry a heavy load, instead 30-year-old Pheonix Copley took what was initially a limited opportunity and bolted into the horizon.
In substantive terms, the Kings have also tightened up defensively in a number of ways that have not necessarily shined through in the numbers but certainly have in the results. A toothier penalty kill, fewer low-reward risks on offense and limiting opponents ability to connect on long plays have all aided Copley, along with stronger goal support than the Kings have given Quick of late.
Even though there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg debate regarding the Kings improvement since Copley made his organizational debut, theres little doubt that that period has been more fruitful for the Kings. Unless goaltending shifts from a nagging concern to full-blown crisis, the most likely outcome seems to be that the Kings ride Copley the rest of the way, a dream scenario for a pro who appeared to be in danger of becoming a career minor-leaguer.
On the blue line
Top defenseman Drew Doughty missed more than twice as much time last season as he had during his entire career combined, but has largely returned to form this season. Sean Durzi has continued his trial by fire, becoming more prolific and a less of a defensive liability in the process. Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy have looked to get into the play a bit more while still providing a strong defensive presence, with Anderson gaining a reputation league-wide for his denial of zone entries.
Yet the Kings defense corps still seemed to be missing an ingredient, and it hasnt been able to add a piece despite that sentiment dating to the summer when general manager Rob Blake identified physicality, especially on the back end, as something he sought to improve. That void has manifested itself in tangible ways, as the Kings have the fifth-lowest proportion of hits given to hits taken in the NHL.
While the Kings are light years ahead of where they were during the shortened season of just two years ago in so many ways, they can still improve defensively and in terms of their defense corps. Theyve allowed the eighth-most five-on-five goals in the league. While thats skewed slightly because the Kings are tied for the most games played, its concerning since the penalty kill and play in net have been works in progress. Overall, the Kings have allowed the seventh-most total goals in the NHL, with the half-dozen teams behind them all but eliminated from playoff contention.
Up front
Its been said that winning is a great deodorant. For the Kings this year, their new and improved power play has been the active ingredient. While the Kings five-on-five production has been definitively average, their two balanced, four-forward units have soared this season. Combining a knack for drawing penalties (sixth most in the NHL) and a vastly improved conversion rate (from 16.1% to 24.2%, the strongest about-face in franchise history), the Kings have scored the third-most goals in the NHL combining all five-on-four, five-on-three and four-on-three situations.
The Kings additions over the past two campaigns have contributed heavily. Durzi, a callup last year, took Doughtys place on the top unit when he was injured then and has quarterbacked a formidable second grouping this season. Arthur Kaliyev and Gabe Vilardi, essentially second-year players, have taken major steps forward. Phillip Danault, a free-agent signing before last season, and his sidekick Trevor Moore have added man-advantage contributions to bags that already contained tenacity, versatility and strong defense. Wingers Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala, who were teammates in Nashville until 2019, were acquired over the past two offseasons and have spent much of the year ranked Nos. 1 and 2 on the team in power play points (Fiala is the current leader; Arvidsson is tied for third).
Improved consistency five-on-five, frequent transition scoring and more offense from defense in general are on every coachs wish list, but the Kings have deposited plenty of pucks in the net. They should also see an offensive boost soon after the break as Kaliyev, Moore and Vilardi were all able to use the downtime to recuperate and condition coming off injuries.
In the wings
Players returning from injury imminently and those who surmounted recent setbacks, like forward Quinton Byfield and defenseman Sean Walker, may all have runway for the stretch run. Former lottery pick Alex Turcotte, a center, has been up with the big club in a limited role of late. Forward Jaret Anderson-Dolan has earned the trusting player label that McLellan has given to other forwards like Moore and Alex Iafallo.
Beyond the top level, the Kings have defensemen Jordan Spence and Helge Grans in the minors, and once his Canadian junior campaign concludes, Brandt Clarke will also be eligible to return to Los Angeles. The issue there is that the Kings are already playing four right-hand-shooting defensemen on a nightly basis, leaving no room on the blue line even for such talented rearguards. If the Kings dont make a move to add a left-hand-shooting D-man, it should spell greater opportunities for Tobias Bjornfot, Jacob Moverare or both.
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Of course, a trade is very much a possibility, as is the case for most teams with designs on the playoffs. Blake has preserved intact his complement of draft picks, owning 21 picks over 21 rounds in the next three seasons. From his original picks, he is short just one seventh-rounder, which he more than made up for by acquiring another third.
Other than defenseman Brock Faber, a piece in the deal to acquire the teams leading scorer Fiala, Blake has conserved his prospect pool as well. The Kings can look at minor moves, like they made last year to shore up an injury-ravaged defense corps with Troy Stecher; they could seek a slightly more ambitious move to shore up a deficiency; or, if the circumstances align ideally, they could mobilize a larger package to pursue an impact player, likely a defenseman, near the trade deadline.
https://www.dailynews.com/2023/02/07...e-of-pitfalls/
They sit in a points tie for first place in the Pacific Division after going 13-6-1 in their past 21 games, tying for the best points total in the Western Conference during that span. Only Boston, which the Kings defeated to start their run, and Carolina, which rallied from three goals down to saddle the Kings with an overtime loss heading into the All-Star break, have owned better marks in the past quarter of the NHL schedule.
But the Kings will need to stay sharp given that the three teams within three or fewer points of the Kings all have at least three games in hand on them. The developments to date and a glimpse ahead show a team with tremendous potential, but also indicate some possible pitfalls as temperatures rise and the quest for Lord Stanleys Cup intensifies.
Reaching this point
Initially, Coach Todd McLellan described his roster as one striving for an identity, then as one that miscast itself as a run-and-gun roster, then as one that was part of the majority of teams seeking consistency and, lately, as a group thats begun to find itself and sustain its efficacy for longer periods.
The Kings current position is an enviable but precarious one, perhaps most succinctly evidenced by their goal differential. Of the top 19 teams by record at the break, the Kings are the only one with a negative goal differential. The other four teams sitting atop their division have goal differentials ranging from plus-26 (Seattle) to plus-81 (Boston), with the Kings negative-10 differential placing them among the also-rans, 22nd in the league.
By McLellans own assessment, the season so far would receive a grade of incomplete. From their own netfront to the locales where they have prospects playing around the world, the Kings will shape their destiny in tiny crevices and open spaces alike in the next three months.
In the cage
Statistically speaking, the Kings goaltending was at or near the bottom of the league, though that changed with the radical decision to demote Cal Petersen to the minors. Initially viewed as a period where Petersen would recuperate his form and veteran Jonathan Quick would carry a heavy load, instead 30-year-old Pheonix Copley took what was initially a limited opportunity and bolted into the horizon.
In substantive terms, the Kings have also tightened up defensively in a number of ways that have not necessarily shined through in the numbers but certainly have in the results. A toothier penalty kill, fewer low-reward risks on offense and limiting opponents ability to connect on long plays have all aided Copley, along with stronger goal support than the Kings have given Quick of late.
Even though there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg debate regarding the Kings improvement since Copley made his organizational debut, theres little doubt that that period has been more fruitful for the Kings. Unless goaltending shifts from a nagging concern to full-blown crisis, the most likely outcome seems to be that the Kings ride Copley the rest of the way, a dream scenario for a pro who appeared to be in danger of becoming a career minor-leaguer.
On the blue line
Top defenseman Drew Doughty missed more than twice as much time last season as he had during his entire career combined, but has largely returned to form this season. Sean Durzi has continued his trial by fire, becoming more prolific and a less of a defensive liability in the process. Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy have looked to get into the play a bit more while still providing a strong defensive presence, with Anderson gaining a reputation league-wide for his denial of zone entries.
Yet the Kings defense corps still seemed to be missing an ingredient, and it hasnt been able to add a piece despite that sentiment dating to the summer when general manager Rob Blake identified physicality, especially on the back end, as something he sought to improve. That void has manifested itself in tangible ways, as the Kings have the fifth-lowest proportion of hits given to hits taken in the NHL.
While the Kings are light years ahead of where they were during the shortened season of just two years ago in so many ways, they can still improve defensively and in terms of their defense corps. Theyve allowed the eighth-most five-on-five goals in the league. While thats skewed slightly because the Kings are tied for the most games played, its concerning since the penalty kill and play in net have been works in progress. Overall, the Kings have allowed the seventh-most total goals in the NHL, with the half-dozen teams behind them all but eliminated from playoff contention.
Up front
Its been said that winning is a great deodorant. For the Kings this year, their new and improved power play has been the active ingredient. While the Kings five-on-five production has been definitively average, their two balanced, four-forward units have soared this season. Combining a knack for drawing penalties (sixth most in the NHL) and a vastly improved conversion rate (from 16.1% to 24.2%, the strongest about-face in franchise history), the Kings have scored the third-most goals in the NHL combining all five-on-four, five-on-three and four-on-three situations.
The Kings additions over the past two campaigns have contributed heavily. Durzi, a callup last year, took Doughtys place on the top unit when he was injured then and has quarterbacked a formidable second grouping this season. Arthur Kaliyev and Gabe Vilardi, essentially second-year players, have taken major steps forward. Phillip Danault, a free-agent signing before last season, and his sidekick Trevor Moore have added man-advantage contributions to bags that already contained tenacity, versatility and strong defense. Wingers Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala, who were teammates in Nashville until 2019, were acquired over the past two offseasons and have spent much of the year ranked Nos. 1 and 2 on the team in power play points (Fiala is the current leader; Arvidsson is tied for third).
Improved consistency five-on-five, frequent transition scoring and more offense from defense in general are on every coachs wish list, but the Kings have deposited plenty of pucks in the net. They should also see an offensive boost soon after the break as Kaliyev, Moore and Vilardi were all able to use the downtime to recuperate and condition coming off injuries.
In the wings
Players returning from injury imminently and those who surmounted recent setbacks, like forward Quinton Byfield and defenseman Sean Walker, may all have runway for the stretch run. Former lottery pick Alex Turcotte, a center, has been up with the big club in a limited role of late. Forward Jaret Anderson-Dolan has earned the trusting player label that McLellan has given to other forwards like Moore and Alex Iafallo.
Beyond the top level, the Kings have defensemen Jordan Spence and Helge Grans in the minors, and once his Canadian junior campaign concludes, Brandt Clarke will also be eligible to return to Los Angeles. The issue there is that the Kings are already playing four right-hand-shooting defensemen on a nightly basis, leaving no room on the blue line even for such talented rearguards. If the Kings dont make a move to add a left-hand-shooting D-man, it should spell greater opportunities for Tobias Bjornfot, Jacob Moverare or both.
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Of course, a trade is very much a possibility, as is the case for most teams with designs on the playoffs. Blake has preserved intact his complement of draft picks, owning 21 picks over 21 rounds in the next three seasons. From his original picks, he is short just one seventh-rounder, which he more than made up for by acquiring another third.
Other than defenseman Brock Faber, a piece in the deal to acquire the teams leading scorer Fiala, Blake has conserved his prospect pool as well. The Kings can look at minor moves, like they made last year to shore up an injury-ravaged defense corps with Troy Stecher; they could seek a slightly more ambitious move to shore up a deficiency; or, if the circumstances align ideally, they could mobilize a larger package to pursue an impact player, likely a defenseman, near the trade deadline.
https://www.dailynews.com/2023/02/07...e-of-pitfalls/