PGA TOUR RBC Heritage Betting Guide
Tournament and Course Overview
While it is always bittersweet exiting from a major championship as a bettor, we are still fortunate to be treated to one of the better courses on TOUR this week with the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC. We also have a strong field on tap, as defending champ Webb Simpson, world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, and Masters debutant darling Will Zalatoris headline the event.
Ball-striking is the name of the game at this par 71 Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus layout at Sea Pines Resort that has yielded a wide variety of winners from TOUR stalwarts such as the aforementioned Simpson, Jim Furyk, and Matt Kuchar to a win — including high-priced winners we saw from 2017-2019 with Wesley Bryan, Satoshi Kodaira and C.T. Pan.
Place a premium on driving accuracy over driving distance this week, and the most notable stat about RBC Heritage is that the GIR rate is a whopping eight percentage points lower than a TOUR average course (57.5% vs. 65.7%).
The Picks
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Given the fact that we have seen some big outright numbers hit at the RBC Heritage over the past few years, it would be nonsensical not to throw a few darts out there in this field. My card will start with Chase Seiffert (+22000). The third-place finisher at last month’s Honda Classic has shown he can get scorching hot with his approach play on more than one occasion in his young career, and recently his driver has come into form as well. Winning this tournament outright may be a lot to ask but play him in exotics at juicy prices.
Another triple-digit outright I fancy is Zach Johnson (+14000). A grizzly PGA TOUR vet who has historically fared well at this tournament. Although he comes in off two straight missed cuts, he had quietly made the weekend in 14 straight events and has posted three top 10s on the TOUR season. ZJ is a great putter — and if the irons are clicking — there is awesome value on his top-20 price here.
In the mid-tier, I love the value on Russell Henley (+6000). Henley ranks out first in this field in my custom stat model for the week that factors in Greens in Regulation Gained, putting on Bermuda, approach play on Pete Dye-designed courses, and total ball-striking over the past 50 rounds. Henley is not quite in the form he showed last fall where he was a top-10 machine, but a T3 last time out at the Honda must have him feeling primed for this week.
It was a disappointing Masters that ended with a missed cut for Daniel Berger (+1900), but he should pick right back up with the consistent golf he has displayed over the past year at a course he made a late Sunday run on last year, nearly giving him his second win in as many weeks coming off the COVID restart. Berger has gained strokes in every category consistently since the turn of the calendar year, and you will catch him at a discounted price near the top end of the board in this field.
My Card
Chase Seiffert Top 20 (+750)
Chase Seiffert Top 10 (+1600)
Zach Johnson Top 20 (+300)
Zach Johnson Outright (+14000)
Russell Henley Top 10 (+500)
Russell Henley Outright (+6000)
Daniel Berger Outright (+1900)