Picks and predictions for the 147th British Open

The oldest major in golf can be the toughest to pick. But here are some predictions for Tiger, Rickie, and the rest of the week at Carnoustie.

The Open Championship is the oldest major in golf and it is often the most unpredictable. A links setup can bring all sorts of players and styles into contention. The weather can also turn in a hurry and quickly wipe out a favorite’s chances whether he has anything to do with it or not. This year’s British Open comes to Carnoustie, the toughest course on the rota. The Scottish links is baked out after almost no rain for a month, which will lead to a variety of strategies with perhaps unpredictable results. Nevertheless, we march on with a set of predictions and fun themes to watch for this week.

Who’s your dark-horse pick to win or contend down the stretch on Sunday? (ideally odds 60/1 or higher)

Brendan: It’s hard to call Lee Westwood, maybe the greatest player to never a win a major, a sleeper. But Westy is 80/1 and hasn’t really toured regularly as a pro this season. He’s got six Euro Tour starts and half those came in the last three weeks leading into The Open. This is his first major of the year. He’s a darkhorse. He knows how to play links golf and this venue, specifically. He looked competent, even competitive, for a a few days at both the Irish and Scottish Opens the last two weeks. Sure some nostalgia is influencing this but I wouldn’t slot him here if I didn’t think it was possible.

Kyle: Ah, yes, holding on to the last vestiges of Westy. Definitely not sad at all, and sure to disappoint. Time to get on a new name from the Isles.

I’ll ride with Roo Knox as a real possibility as a winner down the stretch. He’s coming off a really nice win in Ireland, and doesn’t ever get the credit for the quality of player he is. I’ve got him in the top-15 in my field rank for a reason, so I’m not even sure if he qualifies as a darkhorse. He really shouldn’t.

Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images

Is there a first-time major winner out there this week? How about a super random long shot (like Todd Hamilton)?

Kyle: The hell with never winning a major, how about never winning an event? Ryan Fox (100-1) and Jorge Campillo (250-1) are two names to watch, despite holding a combined zero PGA Tour or European Tour wins between the two of them. Fox is surging the last two weeks in Scotland and Ireland with top-6 finishes, and Campillo’s as steady as anyone on the Euro Tour this year — seven top tens in sixteen starts. He’s a reliable contender you see week-to-week if you wake up for Sunday morning coffee golf. He is also a former Indiana Hoosier and played his practice round with fellow countryman Sergio, so very on-brand for me.

Brendan: Jordan Smith is No. 129 in the world so he’s not a random player, but 500/1 is a longshot. The big hitting Englishman could be a flier play from deep down the board. Most will go Rickie but I think another English lad is the best bet for the first-time winner prediction: Tommy Fleetwood. He’s obviously a world-class player who has shown his best stuff in the biggest events.

Who is one big name, or maybe a few if you’re feeling mean, you expect to bomb out early and never contend at Carnoustie?

Brendan: I know he’s having a Player of the Year type season, but I will never get on board with Bubba at the British Open. I also think Rory McIlroy could miss his second straight major championship cut. It’s so hard to tell with him and he can go one way or the other so fast these days, depending on if he gets on tilt with the putter.

Kyle: I’m in line on both of those. Bubba’s playing great golf but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever really seriously threaten at one of these. Rory gives me pause if he can control things off the tee on this golf course. One more for good measure: I’m worried about Justin Thomas this week. JT hits it hiiiiiiiiiiiiiigh, and I think links golf develops a few years later for American players. He might just still be a couple years away from figuring things out over here, though a fine showing at a tough Le Golf National was positive, if not completely a links track.

Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images

Is the British Open the best men’s major? Is it British Open, The Open, Open Championship, or who cares?

Kyle: It’s really good, but not the best — as the resident U.S. Open stan here. I’ve also written this take before, which is, well, something I somewhat regret. All that’s important to remember is that The Masters is the worst major, gotta go.

Brendan: I do not care what you call it. I am also not offended by the R&A’s insistence that you call it one thing and not the other. Call it all of them, be deferential if that’s your thing, whatever. I also think it is the best men’s major championship and have written many words why over the years. Here are a some.

Rickie is the forever trendy pick and he is again this week. Does that make sense?

Kyle: Here’s where I remind you that Rickie Fowler has as many PGA Tour wins as Chris Kirk.

Fine, fine, that’s a bit misleading. But I don’t fully understand this one, I’ll admit. Yes, Rickie had a nice finish at the Scottish Open, but, uh, so did lots of other guys! It’s like we’re still basking in the glow of his win there from literally three years ago.

I guess it makes some sense, if you’re buying the notion that a lower traj is the way to play this week — Rickie isn’t one to hit the ball six million miles into the stratosphere, links golf does seem to set up well for him. But, man, Carnoustie’s a different animal. This just seems like a random thing we’ve all latched onto because we want it to happen. Much more so than it actually being likely.

Brendan: I think Rickie winning a major, and this specific major, would be the best non-Tiger story at this point. He has clearly embraced Scottish golf and this major championship and I think that’s often why he’s such a trendy pick — that and the belief that it just has to happen at some point if you keep knocking on the door.

Amidst the commercials for mortgages and cars and insurance, I often forget the fact that Rickie is just a very nice dude who comes from a fascinating atypical background. He figured it out on his own without all the luxuries he now enjoys. That’s worth rooting for and I hope he gets it this week.

Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

What odd penalty does Phil Mickelson take this week? Where does he finish?

Brendan: It does not look like there is a “bad” side of the draw this week. I think that’s often where Phil gets wiped out from this championship at this point in his career. He’s figured out this style of golf and I’d be surprised if he missed the cut. That said, I think he’s been way too erratic this summer to actually contend. We’ll avoid a third weird rules infraction in his last four events on the way to a finish around 25th.

Kyle: We didn’t communicate at all about this before, I swear, so I’m just gonna quote myself from field rank:

Phil will probably do something dumb, and finish T-26.

I’ll take “hit a ball into some obscure object and argue about it for hours on end” this week. A mere 4/10 on the Phil scale. Glad we’re in alignment here at Sports Blog Nation Dot Com.

Who finishes highest among Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas?

Brendan: I think Justin Thomas is there late on Sunday pushing for a second major win. This is only his third Open and his record is underwhelming, but I think I trust him the most out of this group right now. Hearing him discuss strategy and learning the shots for links golf over the years was inspiring and fascinating on Tuesday. He’s also having another monster year and is No. 2 in the world. People really do forget that!

Kyle: There’s something about Jordan Spieth I love at Carnoustie. I think it’s a mental golf course and you’ve got to be willing to really hit some shots to get around. It’s the type of setup where I could easily see him scruff it around to a T-3 finish or something. We’ll see. I’m not super huge on any of the lot this week, but DJ and Spieth I like more than Rory and JT — which is rare for me.

There is a lottttt of murmuring about this being set up quite well for Tiger. What’s the Big Cat going to do this week?

Brendan: I tweeted this earlier in the week but Tiger at 25/1 is some of the best value I can ever remember for him. Even when his back was a mess and he had no shot of contending, his odds were way lower than that. He comes to this Open playing the season like a top 25 player in the world. He’s a real, competitive golfer again.

It’s unsurprising given his history and creative mind for links golf that there’s a serious non-fanboy wave of thinking he’ll win this week. He admitted this is the major that would suit him best for a win in the late stages of his career. We’ve seen that play out over the last decade at the Open. Tiger is a very serious threat to win this week. I just don’t think he’ll putt well enough to beat a small handful of players from the 156-man field that will finish ahead of him.

Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images

Kyle: I’m in man. I’m all in. I think Tiger can win this week. And I’ve been rather careful about saying that, especially at the other majors.

Maybe it’s the stingers, I guess. I love the thought of him putting driver away and being able to carve this place up and place the ball in spots off the tee. I think this is the best major setup for him of the three since his return. I’m still not sure about him actually getting it done, but I really do believe we’ll get four days of real Tiger Woods contention. I think we get the blood really flowing for the first time in a few years on a major Sunday. I’m about it.

Who’s your winner of the 147th Open?

Brendan: Ben Hogan won at Carnoustie in his only trip to the British Open. The schedule was far different back then and travel was onerous, but it still holds up as a truly badass move.

Well, I’m going with another surly Texan that may not have a gaggle of friends in the press or on Tour: Patrick Reed (that’s probably where the Hogan comps begin and end). Reed has said he’s an entirely different player under pressure since winning at the Masters. We saw it at Shinnecock. He’s picked up some tricks to links golf over the years, embraced the Scottish Open, and become much more flexible and creative with his play. Reed might be a major championship killer now and I think, given his short game, things are lining up for him to contend and win his second major of the year.

Kyle: I’m just gonna ignore that and proceed on, just like I’m going to maybe ignore some warning signs in making this pick. I’ve been beating the drum for Sergio to win at Carnoustie since we put on the last green jacket. Days away, I’m less sure of that pick.

Still, man, it’s hard to deny his performance here and just how dominant he was through roughly 60 holes compared to the rest of the field. He seemed to turn a corner at the French Open with a T-8 finish, but he’s gone back Zero Dark Thirty for a couple of weeks here. If you can chalk the slump from Masters to U.S. Open up to, you know, being a newborn dad and all the lack-of-sleep that comes with it — perhaps that makes a bit more sense.

My brain says Frank Molinari, after his insane run of play heading into this event — and he’s really got most of the skills that made Sergio great here in 2007.

But a man must trust his heart. Let’s get number two.