The EAGLE has landed

WELCOME to the home page of EAGLE, the Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator. EAGLE is a mathematical model of golf tournaments that measures every player’s chances of victory at every point in the event. When any competition that EAGLE predicts is in progress, its projected leaderboard and estimated probabilities of winning will be displayed at the top of this post. Its historical forecasts for nearly every men’s major since 2001 will appear below. You can see how the likelihood of a title evolved over the course of the event for the champion, all runners-up, the golfer we would have projected to win before play began and the golfer who attained the highest chance of victory before finishing third or lower, as well as a ranking of the worst collapses in our dataset. Between tournaments, these past predictions will move to the top of this page.

A detailed description of EAGLE’s methodology follows below. You can see our original post announcing the publication of the model here.

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