Where Do Red Sox Odds Stand Heading Into Second Half?

The second half of the regular season begins on Friday with the Boston Red Sox traveling to Chicago to take on the Chicago Cubs. A ten-game win streak before the break brought the Red Sox into the thick of the playoff hunt. With 64 games remaining, let’s check in on where the team stands in the eyes of bookmakers and models.

Starting with the big prize, the World Series, oddsmakers think the Red Sox have a decent chance. On FanDuel Sportsbook, Boston is listed at +2700, or 27-1 odds. While that may seem like a long shot, it’s the sixth best in the American League and 10th best overall.

FanGraphs’ model gives the Red Sox a 2.5% chance to win the World Series. The betting odds of +2700 give you an implied probability of 3.57%. If you believe what FanGraphs’ model has to say, FanDuel is giving you a little bit of value.

In terms of awards, Ceddane Rafaela is tied for the fourth-best odds to win the American League Most Valuable Player at +12000. Aaron Judge is the heavy favorite, with Cal Raleigh as a distant second. Unless both get injured, Rafaela doesn’t have much of a chance.

Garrett Crochet, on the other hand, is making a case for the American League Cy Young. He’s second in odds at +260, trailing only Tarik Skubal. While Skubal is dominating nearly every time he touches the mound, he won the award last year, and voter fatigue could tilt the scales in Crochet’s favor. Pitchers get injured all the time as well, so Skubal missing time could make the Red Sox’s lefty the favorite.

Rookie of the Year is an interesting one. Jacob Wilson is the favorite due to his absurd .332 batting average, but other candidates are gaining ground quickly. Houston Astros outfielder Cam Smith is at +160, while the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz is at +340. Roman Anthony is a distant fourth at +2400, but he’s poised to hit in the middle of the lineup nearly every day on what could be a playoff team. A strong second half might give him an outside chance at winning the award.

Manager of the Year is all but guaranteed to go to Tigers manager A.J. Hinch at this point. He’s -3500, although Alex Cora is the third favorite at +2000. If the Tigers were to collapse, Cora would have a chance to win if he manages a very inexperienced team to the postseason.

The American League Reliever of the Year race is tight. Astros pitcher Josh Hader is atop the odds at +120, but Aroldis Chapman isn’t far behind at +340. Hader has seven more saves than Chapman, but Chapman’s 1.18 ERA is the best in the American League among qualified relievers.

Last but not least is Comeback Player of the Year. Texas Rangers pitcher Jacob DeGrom is the favorite. Deservedly so, given his injury history and his level of performance this season. Trevor Story is lurking at +3000 odds. It’s a long shot for him to overtake DeGrom, but if his August and September are anything like his June and July, he could receive votes.