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Game Day: USC football is ahead of the expectations game

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Game Day: USC football is ahead of the expectations game

Editor’s note: This is the Monday, November 28 edition of the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.


Good morning. After beating UCLA and Notre Dame the past two Saturdays, the USC football team not only is favored to win the Pac-12 title but is on track to be in the national College Football Playoff a year after going 4-8. Who saw this coming? An answer is below.

First, other news:

  • Chargers coach Brandon Staley (surprise!) gambled on a last-minute two-point conversion and it paid off in a one-point win at Arizona.
  • The Rams (shocker!) couldn’t keep up in Kansas City as their injury list kept growing again.
  • The Clippers got a spectacular game from Ivica Zubac and beat the Pacers. The Ducks await word on goalie John Gibson’s health after a loss to the Kraken.
  • The Kings’ experience with one-goal games didn’t help them against the Senators.
  • And UCLA didn’t need an ailing Jaylen Clark to rout Bellarmine, breaking a two-game losing streak.

Now, how surprising is USC?

In his story in today’s newspapers, beat writer Adam Grosbard follows up on the 38-27 victory over Notre Dame, which elevated quarterback Caleb Williams’ Heisman Trophy chances, by looking at the impact of the high bar set by Lincoln Riley from the moment he was hired as USC coach one year ago today.

“I can’t say, like, yes, I knew this was going to happen,” Riley said after the win over the Irish made the Trojans 11-1, No. 4 in the Associated Press rankings, on top of the Pac-12 standings and 2½-point favorites over Utah in the conference championship game Friday night in Las Vegas.

But Riley’s stated expectations included the possibility of championships in the first season with Williams and other elite transfers.

“You guys know me, I stood right by and told you what our expectations were from Day 1,” Riley said Saturday night. “A lot of people thought I was crazy, and that’s fine.”

If so, others were crazy too.

The preseason poll of reporters covering the Pac-12 picked USC to finish third behind Utah and Oregon. Of the 33 voters, however, five picked the Trojans to finish first.

The preseason national polls put USC at No. 14 (writers, via AP) and No. 15 (coaches, via USA Today), and presumably many voters put the Trojans quite a bit higher.

When the newsletter conducted a Q&A with Grosbard and reporter James H. Williams about USC’s and UCLA’s prospects at the start of September, Adam said he expected a 9-3 record and third place in the Pac-12 for the Trojans and ranked them No. 22 nationally, with better possible if they overcame “serious questions about the defense with so many unproven players across the depth chart.” (Williams picked the Bruins to win eight or nine games and have an outside shot at playing in the Rose Bowl game. They’re 9-3 and will play in a lesser bowl.)

As it turns out, the most accurate preseason forecast for USC came from oddsmakers and gamblers. Las Vegas odds gave the Trojans the fifth-best chance to win the national championship (at roughly 21-1), behind Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson, the winners of 10 of the past 13 titles. So a lot of bettors saw something like this coming. And as the newsletter said then, bettors tend to be better predictors than poll voters.

Still, Las Vegas set the Trojans’ win-total over-under line at 9½, so they’ve already blown past that.

USC football usually doesn’t revel in defying expectations. The Trojans set high expectations, even in some less promising seasons, and defy opponents to stop them.

But if they win the Pac-12 championship – let alone the national championship – maybe this will be the year Trojans players embrace the plucky-underdog role and trot out the common winners’ refrain: “Nobody thought we could do this.”

If that happens, a fact-checker’s response will be: Not nobody, exactly, but not most of us either.

TODAY

  • Lakers go for their sixth win in seven games when they host the Pacers (7:30 p.m., SPSN).

NEXT QUESTION

Do the Lakers’ recent wins mean they can be an over-.500 team this season, or have they just been beating up bad opponents? Respond by email (KModesti@scng.com) or on Twitter (@KevinModesti).

280 CHARACTERS

– Rams beat writer Gilbert Manzano, summing up a Sunday when coach Sean McVay was accidentally hit in the jaw by one of his players and the 3-8 Rams beat the point spread but not AFC-leading Kansas City.

1,000 WORDS

Star of the day: Clippers center Ivica Zubac blocks a shot by Pacers forward Isaiah Jackson, one of Zubac’s three blocks. Zubac also had 31 points, 29 rebounds and three assists in a 114-110 victory over Indiana yesterday at Crypto.com Arena. Photo is by AP’s Mark J. Terrill.

LET’S TALK

Thanks for reading the newsletter. Send suggestions, comments and questions by email at KMoedsti@scng.com and via Twitter @KevinModesti.


Editor’s note: To receive the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.


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