Pac-12 football preview: Top 10 trap games on the 2021 schedule (there’s a classic looming in Week One)
Identifying the top trap games on a schedule is admittedly a trap itself. Lopsided matchups are required to create the proper conditions, and there are only so many instances available over the course of a season.
What are those conditions? How is a trap game defined?
This comes courtesy of Football Outsiders:
“Team X has a ‘trap game’ when it plays team Y but it’s looking forward to playing team Z the following week. If team X falls into the trap, they underperform against team Y, possibly losing a game that they would be expected to win easily.”
Pro Football Focus offered this definition:
“A trap game is defined in a variety of ways, but it essentially boils down to a high-ranked team playing in a game that everyone expects them to win against a far lesser opponent (not necessarily a losing team).”
Still not clear? Just roll with us.
The following list of the top-10 trap games on the Pac-12 schedule includes several non-conference affairs but, for the most part, is based on our projections for contenders and pretenders.
Victims of the traps are in bold.
(For a full breakdown of the schedule, go here.)
— Just missed the cut: Hawaii at UCLA, BYU at USC, Arkansas State at Washington, Washington State at Oregon, Portland State at Washington State, Utah at Oregon State and Washington at Arizona.
Sept. 4: Fresno State at Oregon: An easy call considering the extent to which the Week Two trip to Ohio State will loom over every aspect of Oregon football throughout the offseason. Meanwhile, Fresno State has a former Pac-12 quarterback (Washington transfer Jake Haener) and loads of returning starters who were around in 2019, when the Bulldogs nearly beat USC and Minnesota.
Sept. 18: Sacramento State at Cal: The Bears will be fresh off a high-stakes collision at TCU and tempted to cast an eye forward, to their Sept. 25 conference opener at Washington. Meanwhile, Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor will have the Hornets, who won the Big Sky in 2019, immaculately prepared to face his alma mater.
Sept. 18: Utah at San Diego State: The long WAC/MW history between the Aztecs and Utes won’t be enough to conjure full-throttle energy from the visitors, not with this matchup coming a mere week after Utah’s real rivalry (the Holy War). And if the Aztecs lose the previous week in Tucson, Utah will have even less inspiration.
Oct. 2: USC at Colorado: The Trojans should be feeling good after a strong September and won’t be able to ignore a South showdown with Utah looming the next week — making this the ideal time for a suboptimal showing, at altitude, against an opponent they have handled every year since CU joined the conference.
Oct. 2: Washington at Oregon State: Washington’s Week Three visit from Arkansas State is an obvious candidate for inclusion here — too obvious for our purposes. The trip to Corvallis has plenty of trap game trappings, what with the Huskies coming off a date with newly risen nemesis Cal. The nine-game winning streak over OSU, including a 19-7 slog two years ago in Corvallis, will contribute to the malaise.
Oct. 8: Stanford at ASU: A home game on a Friday night, jammed between two division road games (after UCLA, before Utah), places the Sun Devils in a vulnerable spot. And because of its brutal schedule, Stanford won’t have the record or ranking to generate a sense of urgency from ASU. But the Cardinal is plenty capable of taking down a division contender.
Oct. 30: Arizona at USC: Easy pick based on its spot on USC’s schedule: immediately after the rivalry game at Notre Dame and before an anticipated trip to Arizona State that should carry division implications. Adding to the likelihood the Trojans bring much less than their best to the proceedings: The last time USC lost to the Wildcats, in 2012, many of its current players were in elementary school.
Oct. 30: Colorado at Oregon: The timing of this matchup — one week before the Ducks play arch-rival Washington — is reason alone for inclusion on our merry list. But let’s add Colorado’s rugged early schedule and likely sub-.500 record to the calculation, plus the blowout victory by the Ducks two years ago, and we have the ingredients for a classic trap.
Nov. 12. Utah at Arizona: By this point in the season, the Wildcats should be at/near the bottom of the division and the Utes at/near the top. Then consider the recent pummeling administered by the Utes in this series, and they could be double-digit road favorites. The likelihood of a letdown is amplified by what lies ahead for Utah: A home date with Oregon.
Nov. 20: ASU at Oregon State: What warm-weather team wouldn’t be thrilled about its second consecutive trip to the Pacific Northwest in the middle of November? ASU will be coming off a marquee game in Seattle and has the Territorial Cup ahead. Also, the Sun Devils will be returning to the scene of an easy win just 11 months earlier. Urgency won’t be joining them for this trip.
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