The Betting Odds for the Oscars Are In, and It’s Not Good News for Sinners Fans

Now that the 2026 Oscars ceremony is only weeks away, anticipation for Hollywood's biggest night of the year is only growing. In the midst of that excitement, Kalshi's prediction markets, which are backed by millions of trading volume, have revealed the favorites for each category. Unfortunately for fans of Ryan Coogler'sSinners, the current betting odds suggest tough odds are ahead for the film during the March 15, 2026, awards show.

Could Sinners Be Shut Out of All the Major 2026 Oscars Categories?

When the 2026 Academy Awards nominations were announced, there was a huge buzz about Sinners racking up 16 nominations, the most in Oscars history. But, Kalshi's betting odds, as of February 23, show that things may not go the way fans of the Michael B. Jordan movie want to see on awards night.

Sinners is only the favorite to win three categories according to the odds. Every nomination is an honor, and even one win would be meaningful. Still, the fact that Sinners isn't favored to win any of the so-called big categories is a blow for fans who are hoping to see major recognition for the film.

The good news is that Sinners could still prevail in several races, and the betting odds say that it is the second most likely to win Best Picture. Still, even in that case, the implied chances of it winning are low.

The Betting Odds for the 98th Academy Awards, According to Kalshi

Based on the trading volume surrounding the 98th Academy Awards, Kalshi has calculated who the 2026 Oscars frontrunners are in each category and their probability of winning. Only the nominees with at least a 1% chance of winning, according to the betting odds, are listed below.

Best Picture

• Adam Somner (p.n.), Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another: 78%
• Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler - Sinners: 14%
• Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes - Hamnet: 6%
• Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme: 3%

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme: 73%
• Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another: 10%
• Michael B. Jordan - Sinners: 9%
• Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon: 4%
• Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent: 3%

Best Supporting Actor

• Sean Penn - One Battle After Another: 59%
• Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value: 27%
• Benicio del Toro - One Battle After Another: 7%
• Delroy Lindo - Sinners: 4%
• Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein: 4%

Best Supporting Actress

• Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another: 52%
• Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners: 26%
• Amy Madigan - Weapons: 17%
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value: 3%
• Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value: 2%

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another: 92%
• Ryan Coogler - Sinners: 7%
• Chloé Zhao - Hamnet: 3%

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley - Hamnet: 91%
• Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: 6%
• Emma Stone - Bugonia: 3%
• Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue: 2%

Best Cinematography

• Michael Bauman - One Battle After Another: 67%
• Autumn Durald Arkapaw - Sinners: 19%
• Adolpho Veloso - Train Dreams: 11%
• Darius Khondji - Marty Supreme: 2%
• Dan Laustsen - Frankenstein: 1%

Best Original Screenplay

• Ryan Coogler - Sinners: 93%
• Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme: 6%
• Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian - It Was Just An Accident: 2%
• Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value: 2%

Best Film Editing

• Andy Jurgensen - One Battle After Another: 78%
• Stephen Mirrione - F1: 18%
• Michael P. Shawver - Sinners: 4%
• Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme: 2%

Best Animated Feature Film

• Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong - KPop Demon Hunters: 91%
• Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino - Zootopia 2: 9%
• Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon - Little Amélie or the Character of Rain: 3%

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon - One Battle After Another: 92%
• Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O'Farrell - Hamnet: 7%
• Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley - Frankenstein: 2%

Best Music (Original Song)

• "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park: 83%
• "I Lied to You" from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and LudwigGöransson: 13%

Best Animated Short Film

• Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens - Butterfly: 51%
• Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski - The Girl Who Cried Pearls: 23%
• Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears - Forevergreen: 13%
• John Kelly and Andrew Freedman - Retirement Plan: 13%
• Konstantin Bronzit - The Three Sisters: 3%

Best Documentary Feature Film

• Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee - The Perfect Neighbor: 53%
• David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková - Mr. Nobody against Putin: 16%
• Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen - Come See Me in the Good Light: 15%
• Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni - Cutting through Rocks: 7%
• Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman - The Alabama Solution: 5%

Best Production Design

• Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau - Frankenstein: 89%
• Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne - Sinners: 8%
• Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton - Hamnet: 3%
• Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis - Marty Supreme: 3%
• Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino - One Battle After Another: 2%

Best Casting

• Francine Maisler - Sinners: 61%
• Cassandra Kulukundis - One Battle After Another: 28%
• Jennifer Venditti - Marty Supreme: 9%
• Gabriel Domingues - The Secret Agent: 2%
• Nina Gold - Hamnet: 1%

Best International Feature Film

• (Norway) in Norwegian and English – directed by Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value: 69%
• (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho - The Secret Agent: 27%
• (France) in Persian and Azerbaijani – directed by Jafar Panahi - It Was Just An Accident: 4%
• (Tunisia) in Arabic – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania - The Voice of Hind Rajab: 3%
• (Spain) in Spanish, French, and Arabic – directed by Oliver Laxe - Sirât: 2%

Best Costume Design

• Kate Hawley - Frankenstein: 91%
• Ruth E. Carter - Sinners: 7%
• Miyako Bellizzi - Marty Supreme: 2%

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey - Frankenstein: 94%
• Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry - Sinners: 6%
• Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg - The Ugly Stepsister: 2%

Best Visual Effects

• Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett - Avatar: Fire and Ash: 95%
• Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean - Sinners: 3%
• Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson - F1: 3%

Best Sound

• Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta - F1: 87%
• Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker - Sinners: 8%
• Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas - Sirāt: 4%

Best Original Score

• Ludwig Göransson - Sinners: 93%
• Jonny Greenwood - One Battle After Another: 5%
• Jerskin Fendrix - Bugonia: 2%

Best Live Action Short Film

• Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata - Two People Exchanging Saliva: 43%
• Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt - The Singers: 31%
• Lee Knight and James Dean - A Friend of Dorothy: 21%