The Oscars' Best Actor Race May Officially Be Over

The BAFTA Film Awards took place on February 22, 2026, with One Battle After Another taking home the award for Best Picture and Jessie Buckley continuing her sweep in the Best Actress category.

The BAFTAs are one of four major awards ceremonies that help experts predict what's going to happen at the Oscars, and this year's ceremony has made a major decision regarding the Best Actor race.

Robert Aramayo Won The BAFTA For Best Actor

This year's Best Actor race has been hard-fought between Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio for their performances in Marty Supreme and One Battle After Another, respectively. While Chalamet is the clear frontrunner, many fans suspected that One Battle After Another's ongoing momentum could carry DiCaprio to victory alongside it.

Chalamet has already won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, but we're several months away from the Oscars and it's not too late for a shake-up in the race.

However, the BAFTAs would have needed to honor DiCaprio for this momentum to really pick up speed—and they didn't. Instead, they awarded Best Actor to Robert Aramayo in one of the ceremony's biggest surprises, recognizing British talent and seemingly swinging the Best Actor race in Chalamet's favor.

The BAFTAs are typically the most unpredictable precusor for the Oscars, with the British Academy's winners rarely lining up with the Oscars' winners one-to-one. But still, giving an actor the opportunity to stand on a global stage and make a statement about their work is crucial in building Oscars momentum.

Chalamet has been given two opportunities for this now, and DiCaprio hasn't had any this year. The BAFTAs could have been his last chance to kickstart his narrative; the only remaining ceremony is the Screen Actors' Guild Awards, and Chalamet is the clear favorite there too.

Chalamet won the SAG Award last year for his turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, and returning just twelve months later to win again would be a record-breaking feat. While he failed to turn his SAG victory into an Oscars victory last time, he's got much more momentum this year—and DiCaprio isn't campaigning anywhere near as loudly as Adrien Brody was last year.