Nakatani favoured to beat Magramo in WBO title bout!
0
27
Tomorrow in Tokyo we'll see Junto Nakatani (20-0, 15) [中谷 潤人] and Giemel Magramo (24-1, 20) battle for the vacant WBO Flyweight title, with the two men battling at Korakuen Hall for the title that was vacated earlier this year by Kosei Tanaka (15-0, 9) [田中恒成].
For us this is very much a 50-50 bout, but notably the bookies don't see it the same as us. In fact they have a pretty clear cut favourite.
The bookmakers have got the unbeaten Nakatani as a 1/2 favourite to win the bout and become the new champion. We do wonder if this is done to home advantage and the advantages of the officials, all of whom are from Japan to try and limit the issues that have arisen due to Covid19. It's also worth noting that Magramo will have had his training interrupted by spending 2 weeks in isolation in Japan.
As for Magramo he is priced at 15/8 to take the upset, and he is a legitimately live under-dog here. Notably he has faced better competition, overall, than Nakatani but he is in his opponents back yard and will be fighting in Japan for the first time.
The draw is best priced at 20/1.
As well as the "To win" market there is also a "Method of Victory" market, which is a really interesting market here. The most likely outcome, in the eyes of the bookies, is a decision for Nakatani, with odds of 7/5 being available. This is an interesting price, given all 3 judges are Japanese, but both men have suggested they will be looking for a KO. The odds on Nakatani to take home the early victory is 5/2 whilst Magramo is 5/1 too take home a stoppage victory. A decision for Magramo is best best priced at 3/1.
Despite both men predicting a stoppage win, the bout isn't expected to have an early conclusion. It's 8/15 to go the scheduled 12 and 6/4 to end within the distance. For those looking for a little bit more value the bout is 13/8 to go more than 10.5 rounds and 4/9 to not reach the mid-way point of round 11.
Related - Old fashioned fine tuning and the quick study: Giemel Magramo versus Junto Nakatani (preview)
For us this is very much a 50-50 bout, but notably the bookies don't see it the same as us. In fact they have a pretty clear cut favourite.
The bookmakers have got the unbeaten Nakatani as a 1/2 favourite to win the bout and become the new champion. We do wonder if this is done to home advantage and the advantages of the officials, all of whom are from Japan to try and limit the issues that have arisen due to Covid19. It's also worth noting that Magramo will have had his training interrupted by spending 2 weeks in isolation in Japan.
As for Magramo he is priced at 15/8 to take the upset, and he is a legitimately live under-dog here. Notably he has faced better competition, overall, than Nakatani but he is in his opponents back yard and will be fighting in Japan for the first time.
The draw is best priced at 20/1.
As well as the "To win" market there is also a "Method of Victory" market, which is a really interesting market here. The most likely outcome, in the eyes of the bookies, is a decision for Nakatani, with odds of 7/5 being available. This is an interesting price, given all 3 judges are Japanese, but both men have suggested they will be looking for a KO. The odds on Nakatani to take home the early victory is 5/2 whilst Magramo is 5/1 too take home a stoppage victory. A decision for Magramo is best best priced at 3/1.
Despite both men predicting a stoppage win, the bout isn't expected to have an early conclusion. It's 8/15 to go the scheduled 12 and 6/4 to end within the distance. For those looking for a little bit more value the bout is 13/8 to go more than 10.5 rounds and 4/9 to not reach the mid-way point of round 11.
Related - Old fashioned fine tuning and the quick study: Giemel Magramo versus Junto Nakatani (preview)