5 questions going into Gervonta Davis vs. Leo Santa Cruz
Gervonta Davis is a young, power-punching dynamo with the kind of following that could make him a superstar one day. Leo Santa Cruz is a four-division titleholder whose volume punching has confounded a string of world-class opponents in his 14-year career.
Something has to give when they meet on pay-per-view Saturday at the Alamadome in San Antonio.
Davis (23-0, 22 KOs) is favored to beat Santa Cruz (37-1-1, 19 KOs) in least in part because of a perceived size and strength advantage. However, anyone who has followed Santa Cruz’s stellar career would say it would be foolish to write him off.
Of course, there are many questions going into the fight, as there are in any important matchup. Here are five of them.
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No. 1
Will size play a significant role in the fight?
Absolutely. Santa Cruz fought at 126 pounds only two fights ago yet is stepping into the ring with a big 130-pounder with as much power pound-for-pound as anyone in boxing. And Santa Cruz’s aggressive, volume-punching style could feed into what Davis wants to do: Santa Cruz will come to Davis, an excellent, dangerous counterpuncher. Santa Cruz says he has bulked up for the fight and feels strong. And, of course, he has sparred with bigger fighters. All that is true. However, he’s accustomed to facing smaller men come fight time. This will be a new experience. Santa Cruz said he will adjust, he’ll box more, if he determines that Davis’ power is a problem. That’s not his strength, though. Santa Cruz wins fights by plowing forward and throwing a zillion punches. That approach just might not work against an opponent as big and strong — and good — as Davis.
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No. 2
Can Santa Cruz take Davis’ power?
Doubtful, at least not for long. One of the most effective ways to build up your punch resistance is to get into inhuman condition. That’s Santa Cruz’s specialty, working extremely hard during training to build stamina and resilience. That only goes so far, though. Davis has 22 knockouts in 23 fights because he can crack and keeps on cracking. It’s possible that Santa Cruz has a better chin than we realize. It’s also possible that his pressure won’t allow Davis the time and space he needs to land big shots. And, who knows, maybe Santa Cruz has a better skill set and ability to avoid punches than we realize. More likely, Davis is going to land hard punches. And if he doesn’t take Santa Cruz out with one early, his punishing blows could wear him down and result in a late knockout.
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No. 3
Will Davis make the agreed-upon 130 pounds?
Probably. “Tank” has had problems with discipline in the past. He initially weighed in 1.5 pounds over the 135-pound limit for his most recent fight – a 12th-round stoppage of Yuriorkis Gamboa last December – before returning to scale and registering 134.5. However, he seems to have recognized the importance of this fight and the value of professionalism. The product of Baltimore moved his camp to Floyd Mayweather’s gym in Las Vegas and, according to him and his camp, it’s been all boxing all the time. Mayweather said Davis was around 134 less than weeks before the fight, which is a good sign. I wouldn’t be shocked if Davis came in over 130, given his history, but I’d be mildly surprised. Davis and Santa Cruz are fighting for both Santa Cruz’s junior lightweight title and Davis’ secondary lightweight belt, which Boxing Junkie doesn’t recognize.
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No. 4
For whom would a victory be bigger?
Santa Cruz. For Davis, this is his first pay-per-view main event. That’s a milestone. If he wins and looks good doing it, he becomes that much bigger of an attraction. And, from a boxing standpoint, it’s a big victory. Santa Cruz is a four-division titleholder, after all. Let’s face it, though: Davis is supposed to win because of his size and power advantages. He’s a 3½-1 favorite, according to BetMGM, for a reason. If he wins – particularly if he scores a knockout – people will say, “Well, Santa Cruz was too small.” Think along the lines of Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia. If Santa Cruz wins? That would be huge for him. He’d receive Hall of Fame consideration as things stand today. If he beats Davis, that might seal the deal. It would change the way he’s perceived, from a excellent fighter to a truly special one.
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No. 5
Did Santa Cruz make a mistake by pursuing this fight?
Depends how you look at it. Again, if he wins, the gamble will have made perfect sense. And if he loses – particularly if he loses badly – he will have been disappointed. Remember: The only loss on his record was a close decision against Fighter of the Year Carl Frampton and he avenged the setback in their rematch. At the same time, he can tell himself and the world that he isn’t in boxing to be mediocre. He can say, “To be great, you have to do great things.” And by taking on Davis he gave himself a chance to accomplish something special. I doubt he’ll regret his decision to fight Davis regardless of what happens on Saturday night.