UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos staff picks and predictions

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos fight card in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC 239, and as expected it’s mostly one-sided in favor of champion Jon Jones and Amanda Nunes to defend their titles against respective challengers Thiago Santos and Holly Holm. As for the welterweight fight between Jorge Masvidal and Ben Askren, it’s only a slight edge in Funky Ben’s favor.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos

Mookie Alexander: Phil will explain in Toe to Toe why he’s picking Santos, and that’s presumably because he has a hard-on for chaos and Thiago usually provides that. He also wants to say “Kevin Holland lost to a UFC champion.” And he’s not THAT crazy to think Santos can win it. Thiago is a stupidly powerful kicker and Jones has frankly never fought anyone of that nature. That could play a role in how long Jones is content to be at range before pressing for the clinch. Santos is also someone who needs space to work, so if Jones wants to pressure and make this a close quarters battle then that could fluster Santos, and there’s also the possibility that Thiago’s tendency to be wild with his power shots leads to him getting caught off balance and taken down. This is absolutely a fight where I think Jones is much better suited not kickboxing with Thiago, or else he absolutely can suffer a shock defeat. One thing about Jones though is he never fights stupidly, so he may go the smartest route possible and Santos will just get eaten alive on the ground. Jon Jones by TKO, round 3.

Zane Simon: Jon Jones is bigger, likely stronger, classically more durable, a better wrestler, and likely at least as good a grappler as Thiago Santos. The only major mark in Santos’ favor (and it is a big one) is that he has much more potential for violence when fighting out at range. It’s the kind of question Jones has never really quite had to answer before, especially given that Santos is both at his most vulnerable and at his most dangerous while moving backwards and throwing counter flurries. Will Jones decide to sit out in kickboxing range and try to find out who can do the most damage with their legs? That may not be a fight he’d win. Or, will he march forward, while eating shots, and break Santos with pressure, like Mousasi and Branch did. He’d be safest likely to just try and find a way to tie him up and wrestle him down. But no matter what, I expect the first round of this to be tense and potentially violent, as Jones tries to figure Santos out. After that, Jones will likely have his way. Jon Jones by decision.

Eddie Mercado: Jon Jones is the G.O.A.T. That is all. Jon Jones by submission.

Staff picking Jones: Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Santos: Ed, Phil

Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm

Mookie Alexander: I don’t discount Holm’s chances here of basically repeating her gameplan from the Cris Cyborg fight. It almost (quite ludicrously) won her the decision vs. Cyborg, and she has the ability to do this against Nunes. If this becomes mostly a striking contest then Nunes is just too powerful and too accurate. She’ll do more damage to win rounds and Holm may end up just waiting too much. This is quite a compelling contest and by no means an easy one for Amanda, but I think she still reigns supreme. Amanda Nunes by unanimous decision.

Fraser Coffeen: Holm’s never ending parade of title shots is an unfortunate assessment of the lack of true headlining stars the UFC has made in the women’s divisions. Yes, the Rousey win was big, but that was 4 years ago, she’s 2-4 since, and has had 3 title fights, losing all of them. I’m not saying she’s not good - she clearly is. But she’s just not at the world title level anymore, no matter how much the UFC wants her to be there. Like Urijah Faber before her, she’ll keep winning enough to get these shots, but won’t convert, especially against the fighter who, for my money, has pretty clearly established herself as the greatest fighter we have yet seen in Women’s MMA. Amanda Nunes, Dec

Zane Simon: There’s one key point where Holm could really turn this fight around, and that’s with her unoften used wrestling game. She showed it against Megan Anderson, and dominated a fight that she’d been getting dinged up in early. If she can tie Nunes up, slow her down, and take her down, she may be able to sap her gas tank. Holm is strong enough, tough enough, and has enough cardio to do it. But, she’s also been very content to have point-kickboxing bouts with better strikers and just slowly lose those. No matter what route Holm picks, Nunes will always have the advantage of being the sharper, more violent technician. Even if Holm gets long stretches of control, I’m not confident she’d turn them into a clear win. But, if Nunes gets Holm striking with her, I’m fairly confident Nunes wins that almost every time. Amanda Nunes by decision.

Eddie Mercado: Nunes hits exceptionally hard and knows how to find her target. Holm misses a bunch when she throws, even if it doesn’t sound like it. Holm is savvy enough and durable enough to not get finished on the feet, so this will likely reach the scorecards. Amanda Nunes by decision.

Staff picking Nunes: Fraser, Phil, Nick, Stephie, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Holm: Ed, Tim

Jorge Masvidal vs. Ben Askren

Phil Mackenzie: Fascinating fight. Masvidal is one of the best all-rounders in the game, with a Mousasi-esque level of technique in almost every phase, and a similarly Mousasi-esque gift for allowing every opponent to have the fight that they want to have. Askren is one of the most purely one-dimensional fighters in the welterweight division, and probably (decent) MMA as a whole. I think he can get takedowns on Masvidal, but the question is whether he can keep getting them. He simply doesn’t have the pressuring footwork or even the striking (don’t laugh) of someone like Demian Maia, nor does he have Maia’s distance closing shot, and that fight was incredibly close, with a slim margin of victory. Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision.

Mookie Alexander: Picking Jorge Masvidal fights will forever be a pain in the ass because you never know what you’re going to get. Some nights he’s an absolute killer and other nights he starts out as an absolute force and then drifts his way right into a contentious split decision defeat. If Masvidal can stifle Askren’s wrestling then yeah, this will be all Masvidal on the feet as he jabs Ben to pieces and possibly knock him out as Askren becomes more desperate when shooting in. I can also see Askren’s takedowns being not just as great as advertised but he’s able to make this a grappling match that Masvidal won’t be able to get out of. Here’s to a smart Masvidal performance and he’ll get the upset win. Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: There’s a very very good chance that Masvidal gets taken down early, fights his way up, stuffs Askren’s next entry, and then just starts blasting him. However, one of Masvidal’s greatest problems has always been his willingness to meet opponents skill-for-skill in whatever fight they bring. Against Darren Till, he was happy to have a slow paced striking battle from range. Same with Stephen Thompson. Against Demian Maia, he went for a guillotine the first time Maia shot in... HE TRIED TO SUBMIT DEMIAN MAIA. Sometimes that kind of battle of wills still gets Masvidal wins. He’s exceptionally tough and skilled. But it also has picked him up his fair share of funky losses. I just get the feeling Askren is going to come out wrestling, and Masivdal is going to try and out-wrestle him--and lose. Ben Askren by Decision.

Eddie Mercado: I want Masvidal to win. He’s one of the most technical pure fighters that I’ve ever seen, which is extremely impressive considering he came up fighting on Kimbo Slice’s street circuit. Masvidal has also lost a lot of fights that he thought he technically won, and his ability to drop rounds is the worst attribute to possess against a Ben Askren. Masvidal will probably be too willing to grapple when he should probably just disengage into open space. For that, I’m taking Askren. Ben Askren by Decision.

Staff picking Masvidal: Ed, Phil, Stephie, Mookie
Staff picking Askren: Nick, Fraser, Tim, Dayne, Zane, Eddie

Luke Rockhold vs. Jan Blachowicz

Phil Mackenzie: I guess the question here is whether Rockhold left his chin and/or his athleticism back in the gym at AKA. If not, he’s just a more powerful, consistent fighter who can (or could) keep a tremendous pace at kicking range. Blachowicz may struggle to lace his jab past the lead hand and shoulder of a southpaw, and in general is not a particularly skilled striker if he’s forced to be aggressive, which could open him up to the counter right hook from Rockhold. If it hits the ground, much as Blachowicz has improved, he’s probably toast. All things considered, Luke Rockhold by TKO, round 2.

Mookie Alexander: Blachowicz has gotten so much better from the lumbering mess that was him gassing out in a round against Patrick Cummins. There’s every bit the possibility that he has the power to send Rockhold out of there early, as there should be questions about how good Luke’s chin is. Beyond that, Rockhold is still much more well-rounded than him and it’d be a total mismatch on the ground. Luke Rockhold by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: If Jan Blachowicz were more willing to just sit down on hard looping shots and walk forward, I would absolutely pick him to win this fight. In fact, he’ll have a real chance at taking Rockhold out, just due to his tendency to flurry off his first landed counter shot. But, once Blachowicz does start moving forward, he almost always ends up in the clinch, willingly tying people up and looking to wrestle and grapple. Rockhold is a monumentally difficult fighter to try and beat up in tight. And if it goes to the ground, I sincerely doubt Blachowicz can match Rockhold there. End of the day, I just don’t see Blachowicz willing to lead enough to put Rockhold away standing or able to stay composed enough to keep off the mat. Luke Rockhold by submission, round 2.

Staff picking Rockhold: Ed, Phil, Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Blachowicz:

Michael Chiesa vs. Diego Sanchez

Phil Mackenzie: How on earth is Sanchez on a win streak? I mean, yes, one answer to that could be that the people he’s been fighting aren’t very good... *checks the record*... OK that is literally the answer. Fine. Well, Chiesa is basically Diego but younger and a better takedown threat. That means we could get some great scrambles, as Diego’s grappling has remained basically intact. However, Diego’s once-legendary chin has deteriorated horribly, and he had some bad scares in that Craig White fight. Michael Chiesa by TKO, round 2.

Mookie Alexander: Trying to outgrapple Diego is still really hard to do, so that’s a legitimate path to victory for Sanchez. But Chiesa is also huge even at welterweight and can probably light him up on the feet, and he’s not even some super dangerous striker. Michael Chiesa by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: I am 100% here for Diego Sanchez to keep surprising against under developed strikers who want to grapple against him. But, I’m always going to pick against him at this point in his career. He just gets hit too easily early in fights, no matter who he’s fighting. Michael Chiesa via KO, round 1.

Staff picking Chiesa: Ed, Phil, Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Sanchez:

Gilbert Melendez vs. Arnold Allen

Fraser Coffeen: El Nino! Look, I will admit to being a total Melendez mark, dating back to watching him hit a shoot Death Valley Driver in Shooto so many years ago. So I’m trying to be really excited for this one. But then I remember - he’s 1-5 in the UFC, and he’s on a two year layoff. And he’s 37. To be fair, you’d be hard pressed to find many fighters with as brutal a schedule in their first 6 fights in the Octagon - no shame in any of those losses. And no offense to Allen, but I don’t see him as being on the level of Alvarez/Barboza/Pettis/etc. Still, as much as I want to pick Giblert here, I’m just can’t shake that terrible BJ Penn feeling. Arnold Allen, depressing TKO

Phil Mackenzie: This is a strange fight. Melendez’ issues of late have been that he just isn’t diverse enough on the feet and has been up against major-league offensive threats who have been able to punt the shit out of his body and lead leg as he wades forward. That being said, if you can’t just outpower him, he’s still (probably) a dangerous and powerful mid-range boxer. Allen has settled into more and more of a movement-heavy style, but he’s also not a hugely powerful puncher, so he’ll have to carefully rack up points. His tendency to go for round-sealing blitzes could take Melendez off-guard... or it could just get Allen clobbered by a man who has never been scared to take one to give one. I guess I have to pick Allen, just for the way these two have trended, but I think it’s a tough matchup for him. Arnold Allen by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: If Allen can just go out and be a constant wildman, who pressures Melendez everywhere and always, I’d be willing to bank on his gas tank and toughness to carry him to a win. But, that fight he had against Rinaldi was UGLY. He fought a remarkably slow pace and, beyond the commentary talking up how good he looked, landed less than 10 more punches than a man who has never been known for his striking ability. Melendez may be on a hell of a skid. But it’s almost exclusively against longtime elite talent. Former champions, title challengers, and the still monstrously powerful Jeremy Stephens. I have yet to see Allen look like a singularly more technical fighter than Melendez anywhere, and if he’s going to try and have a slow paced kickboxing battle against Gil, I think Gil’s hands are still sharper. It may be that Melendez’s body is just too worn out, and that he’ll look decent and then get a freak knee injury that ends the fight or something. But, until that happens, I’m just not seeing the clear path for Allen to win. Gilbert Melendez by decision.

Staff picking Melendez: Ed, Tim, Dayne, Zane
Staff picking Allen: Fraser, Phil, Nick, Stephie, Eddie, Mookie

Nohelin Hernandez vs. Marlon Vera

Phil Mackenzie: Hernandez looks to be a functional striker, and so look for him to tune up an inert-looking Vera for the first round before Chito remembers how to fight to above the level of the competition he’s up against. Marlon Vera by submission, round 2.

Zane Simon: Hernandez is lanky and fun. He’ll likely be competitive, especially early--where Vera’s slow starts tend to plague him. But, he’s not a great power striker and doesn’t push a great pace. Even against smaller, less polished strikers he’s had a number of fights where he’s only barely been able to distinguish himself as the winner (and a couple he’s lost). Vera takes time to figure out his opponent’s timing and rhythm, and gets beat up a lot while that’s happening. But once he has his reads, he’s a remarkably violent fighter. And he’s tough as hell. Marlon Vera via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Hernandez: Tim
Staff picking Vera: Ed, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Eddie, Mookie

Claudia Gadelha vs. Randa Markos

Phil Mackenzie: Gadelha is looking like she’s a dangerous combination of “kind of shot” and “figured out”. Her basic problems of a sketchy gas tank and heinous punching form have only been exacerbated by what looks like a tendency for her confidence to be shaken. Markos isn’t a dramatically different fighter to Gadelha with her own messy punching form and lacking defense. While she lacks the kind of explosive power that Gadelha used to show, that increasingly seems to have been draining away from Gadelha’s game anyway, and Markos is tough as hell, notably hard to outgrapple, and fights hard for three rounds. Randa Markos by unanimous decision.

Mookie Alexander: I think Gadelha is on the decline but Markos is also so horribly inconsistent that I can’t put my trust in her to get the win here. Gadelha’s gas tank woes are a huge concern and she’s looking a little less durable with each passing fight. Markos is rather predictable in her style of fighting and isn’t particularly powerful. We could see some interesting grappling exchanges if Markos can get this fight to the mat and force some scrambles, but I see Gadelha building an early lead and hanging on for dear life to win on the scorecards. Claudia Gadelha by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Both women are capable of pushing fast paced fights that they can’t maintain. For Markos, the problem seems to be that she gets caught up in patterns, doing the same thing over and over, even if it’s stopped working. For Gadelha, however, it just seems like she gets tired quickly. And once she gets tired, she starts to panic. She’s generally competed better against better competition than Markos, but I’m not sure that if Markos doesn’t just keep coming after her over and over, and doesn’t get submitted, that Gadelha won’t fall apart sooner or later. Randa Markos by split decision.

Staff picking Gadelha: Ed, Nick, Stephie, Tim, Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Markos: Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Zane

Alejandro Perez vs. Song Yadong

Phil Mackenzie: Alejandro Perez is a tough matchup for Song, as he is for almost everyone. As a classic spoiler, he’s hard to take down, sticks monotonously to the same pace for an entire fight, and rarely gets stuck in position. He also doesn’t hit too hard, and Song can create brief moments of incredible dynamism. That should be enough to get him a decision in a matchup which could be quite frustrating. Song Yadong by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Perez is a really tough fight for Song. A neutralizer that lays obvious traps as he backs himself to the cage and waits to flurry off his opponent’s aggression. It tends to make people hesitant. And even the fighters that don’t hesitate have trouble stopping him from landing hard shots that can turn a close fight. In this case, though, I think Song is just too fast and has too many tools. He’s likely one of the fastest fighters at 135 (maybe Garbrandt beats him, but that’d be about it). And he’s got polished technique everywhere. A good power wrestling game, good boxing fundamentals and good movement in the pocket. If he stays composed, picks his spots, and mixes in some wrestling, he should take constant advantage of Perez’s willingness to put himself in poor defensive positions. If he gets too confident and just tries to wade in and whomp Perez? This could be a tough learning point for him. Song Yadong via decision.

Staff picking Perez: Ed, Tim, Mookie
Staff picking Yadong: Phil, Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Eddie

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Jack Marshman

Phil Mackenzie: This seems like an easier version of the Stewart fight? Marshman is a more dangerous fighter on the feet, but he lacks Stewart’s solidity in the clinch and pure horsepower. Shahbazyan is incoherent, but in a way which implies a lot of innate athleticism, confidence and talent. He’s a notably enthusiastic wrestler, and Marshman’s takedown defense is just plain bad. Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: There’s still a solid chance that Marshman could put Shahbazyan away if he just throws a well timed flurry and catches the Glendale Fight Club fighter sleeping. Marshman is far and away the most experienced (winning) fighter that Shahbazyan has ever faced. And he’s not near as likely to just charge into tie ups as either Stewart or Byrd were. However, as Phil notes, Marshman’s takedown D ain’t great. And his tendency to fight only in bursts of punches makes it difficult for him to pull away from even much less technical opposition. Too many chances for Shahbazyan to take over the momentum, not enough chances for Marshman to gain it back. Edmen Shahbazyan by decision.

Staff picking Shahbazyan: Ed, Phil, Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Marshman:

Ismail Naurdiev vs. Chance Rencountre

Phil Mackenzie: Naurdiev beating Prazeres was one of the more genuinely astonishing upsets I can think of in recent memory. Naurdiev had shown next to no chance of having the functional wrestling necessary to fight off a tank like Prazeres, but he looked far better than his regional fights, and just kept getting back up until he wore Prazeres out. Rencountre is one of those fighters who has clearly decided that the best way to maximize a long frame is via lots of movement to keep range, but is just a touch too ungainly to make it work. Naurdiev should get more room and space to get his own kick game rolling. Ismail Naurdiev by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Naurdiev: Ed, Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Dayne, Mookie, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Rencountre:

Julia Avila vs. Pannie Kianzad

Phil Mackenzie: I like Kianzad a lot, but she has always struck me as someone who learned how to be a functionally skilled MMA fighter very very quickly, but also hit her physical ceiling about 0.4 seconds after doing so. Avila is aggressive and powerful, and increasingly I feel like that might just be enough. Julia Avila by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Avila: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Fraser, Dayne, Mookie, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Kianzad: Ed, Tim