UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov staff predictions
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov card in London, Englnad.
The Bloody Elbow staff has made its picks for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov card, and only Nick Baldwin is picking Alexander Volkov to beat Fabricio Werdum in the main event. Meanwhile, it’s a unanimous nod for Jimi Manuwa to once again beat Jan Blachowicz.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov
Mookie Alexander: The threats to Werdum are usually guys with one-punch power. Volkov is not that guy. I don’t know if he’s really capable of overwhelming Werdum with volume, either. Add that to his shaky takedown defense and I think Werdum should have this won… but it is heavyweight, so you can expect craziness from time to time. Fabricio Werdum by submission, round 2.
Fraser Coffeen: I really would love to come up with some reason to pick Volkov here. That’s largely because of Werdum’s Kadyrov connection, but it’s also because the division is just undeniably more interesting with a Volkov win. Werdum winning keeps us largely on the treadmill, but I’m afraid that’s where we are going. Volkov is not a crazy power puncher, and Werdum knows how to outpoint guys over time, and then capitalize when he gets them down. Add in Volkov’s relative lack of skill on the ground, and this feels like a no brainer. Sadly. Fabricio Werdum, sub, R3
Staff picking Werdum: Harry, Bissell, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Staff picking Volkov: Nick
Jan Blachowicz vs. Jimi Manuwa
Mookie Alexander: Seriously… why is this happening again? It wasn’t good to watch the first time and there’s a real chance it won’t be any better the second time. Jimi Manuwa by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: While Manuwa remains a dynamite hitter with a unique pressure style which lives around driving people into the arc of his left hook, it’s becoming unfortunately apparent that his chin just is not great, or even good. Blachowicz has quietly been improving since their last fight: he can wrestle more effectively, he can fight for three whole rounds(!). That being said, he also backs himself into the fence a lot, and Manuwa remains the bigger single shot hitter and a far more effective clinch striker. Improvements aside, Blachowicz is still only two fights removed from utterly gassing himself out against Cummins. Jimi Manuwa by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Blachowicz:
Staff picking Manuwa: Nick, Harry, Bissell, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Tom Duquesnoy vs. Terrion Ware
Mookie Alexander: What rough matchmaking for Ware. Stamann, O’Malley, now Duquesnoy. He was admittedly competitive in his two previous fights but clearly lost them both, and I don’t see him able to cope with the dynamic game that Duquesnoy presents. Tom Duquesnoy by TKO, round 3.
Phil Mackenzie: No bones about it, Duquesnoy’s performance against the Detroit Muscle Blossom was concerning. Not because he lost, but because he looked like he accepted it - in the last round, with everything to play for, he just kind of closed up shop. Young, hungry fighters just shouldn’t be doing that. They should be starving for every win. Ware is a cunning, clever boxer but he has clearly been picked as a bounceback: Duquesnoy should be able to kick from the outside, and more pertinently he should be able to capitalize on Ware’s mediocre takedown defense and tendency to hang out in the clinch. Tom Duquesnoy by TKO, round 2
Staff picking Duquesnoy: Nick, Harry, Bissell, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Staff picking Ware:
Leon Edwards vs. Peter Sobotta
Mookie Alexander: The biggest fight in Jamaican MMA is upon us. Leon Edwards is an underrated talent, while Sobotta has largely improved his skills since he was first cut by the UFC. I think Edwards’ speed advantage will be huge here, and if he can get the range he wants, he can outstriker Sobotta. He has to be very careful with Sobotta’s power, which wrecked Ben Saunders last year, but I like Edwards to get the job done. Leon Edwards by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: An odd kind of Jamaican mirror match here, as these two are both nominally kickboxers who really tend to make their bread and butter in the grappling, with a surprising variety of takedowns in their respective arsenals, and a knack for positional dominance. Edwards isn’t a large welterweight, but he is faster and more powerful strike-for-strike than Sobotta, who despite recent offensive improvements is not a devastating hitter. Against Barberena, Edwards’ striking started to resurface towards the end, and he started to show more effective kick-punch combinations. Sobotta has been a surprisingly fun comeback story, but he is just not as durable as Bryan Barberena. Leon Edwards by TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Edwards: Nick, Harry, Bissell, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Staff picking Sobotta:
John Phillips vs. Charles Byrd
Phil Mackenzie: Kid Dynamite vs The White Mike Tyson? For real? This is a name-based booking worthy of prime Joe Silva. Phillips, the caucasian representation, is the one who fights more like the namesake, albeit with almost none of the defense or craft. His closest analogue is more likely John Lineker in all honesty. Move forward, PUNCH PUNCH PUNCH PUNCH PUNCH. Byrd is a more traditional pot-shotting striker with a powerful jab and a sneaky head kick, and he can also grapple. He is obviously the “better” fighter, but I just feel like he’s going to let himself get put into the fence here, and Phillips is a monstrous hitter. The longer it goes, the more likely Byrd’s three dimensional game is to assert itself, but John Phillips by TKO, round 1
Staff picking Phillips: Harry, Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Tim, Dayne
Staff picking Byrd: Nick, Fraser
Danny Roberts vs. Oliver Enkamp
Phil Mackenzie: Like Manuwa, Roberts’ chin seems to be a primary weak point. A slick, rangy southpaw kickboxer, his problems have come when people have forced him backwards and trapped him into combinations or pinned him to the cage. Enkamp is not a pressure fighter at all, more of the Stasiak / Bochniak (and I guess Nelson / GSP) brand of karate-style counter fighter. One of the underrated factors which makes that style work for Gunni / GSP is that they force the issue and move forwards, and Enkamp has much more of a tendency to trap himself. Roberts’ takedown defense has held up well in the UFC, so it seems that Enkamp’s paths to victory are more in a single big blitz combination, or in attacking Roberts from the clinch, where Enkamp is surprisingly gritty and active. Still, Danny Roberts by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Roberts: Nick, Harry, Bissell, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Staff picking Enkamp:
Mookie Alexander: I am really excited about Dawodu’s debut. He’s a fun fighter to watch and Henry can often be reckless. This is a sneaky contender for Fight of the Night. Hakeem Dawodu by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Danny Henry beat Daniel Teymur in one of the finest Boxcar Homerings you’ll ever see, walking headlong into every strike until Teymur’s knuckles were bruised and his lungs were struggling. Can he do that to Dawodu? It seems unlikely. Dawodu works off a dipping jab, backed up with a nasty body shot and left hook. His defense works well in a vacuum but often stars to disappear once he throws, which may not necessarily bode well against Henry. However, his cardio is excellent and despite getting himself into a couple of scares, I think he can broadly replicate his fun (and increasingly one-sided) win over Steven Siler. Hakeem Dawodu by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Henry: Harry
Staff picking Dawodu: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Paul Craig vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Phil Mackenzie: Much as I’d like to see the BearJew pick up a win here, this seems like an awful matchup for him. He’s never really developed either the striking or the offensive wrestling to back up his submission game, and fighting off your back is a terrible proposition at LHW, let alone against someone like Ankalaev. The Chechnyan is as battle-hardened as pre-UFC LHWs tend to get and a monstrous ground and pound fighter. As always, rooting for the Kadyrov guy to get wiped out, but Magomed Ankalaev by TKO, round 2
Staff picking Craig: Harry, Bissell, Mookie
Staff picking Ankalaev: Nick, Fraser, Stephie, Tim, Dayne
Mookie Alexander: Ray has been an alarmingly slow starter in recent fights, but he’s the more well-rounded fighter and I see his striking being the difference in this one. Stevie Ray by split decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I guess the real question here is: how on earth did Kajan Johnson knock out Adriano Martins? Is it simply because of Martins’ glacial pace and predilection for one-shot countering? Ray has also shown something of a tendency to get on his bike in recent years, so it’s conceivable that he traps himself in the same way. However, while his defensive wrestling has never really gotten to the level it needs to, Ray is an underrated offensive wrestler when he wants to be, and is just more fundamentally durable than Johnson, despite their most recent performances. Clinches, shots and stand-up exchanges should eventually set up a big shot from the Scot. Stevie Ray by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Johnson: Bissell, Stephie
Staff picking Ray: Nick, Harry, Fraser, Mookie, Phil, Tim, Dayne
Mark Godbeer vs. Dmitriy Sosnovskiy
Mookie Alexander: This could be terrible, then again “this could be terrible” applies to a lot of heavyweight fights. Godbeer has the superior name so he wins. Mark Godbeer by blue-collar decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Godbeer is a tough man style of heavyweight- decently crafty, but focused clearly on just landing his right hand over and over, and without much in the way of ancillary skills to back it up. Sosnovskiy is, at the moment, a can crusher, and it’s always terribly difficult to tell how they’ll do in the UFC, particularly at heavyweight. But Godbeer’s weakness has always been getting put on the fence, taken down and beaten up. Kongo is not exactly the world’s most devastating finisher there, and he put Godbeer away. Will be profoundly unsurprised if Sosnovskiy gets put into one of those “I’m not the strongest guy around” revelatory moments, but give me Dmitriy Sosnovskiy by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Godbeer: Harry, Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Tim
Staff picking Sosnovskiy: Nick, Stephie, Phil, Dayne
Nad Narimani vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Phil Mackenzie: This should be a lot of fun. Narimani is something of a flat-footed counter fighter, who makes it difficult to intrude on his space with an active jab and short combinations. Haqparast impressed me tremendously in a nightmarish style matchup against Held, surviving well on the ground and hurting the Polish fighter on the feet. At only 22 years old, he shows a surprising amount of depth, tons of power and speed, and has been spending time at both Tristar and King’s MMA, which just sounds like a near-perfect combination of gyms for a developing fighter. Narimani is very tough, but I think the short notice and the weight class jump bode poorly here, as he relies a good deal on his size, power and consistency to insulate him from consistent issues like his defense moving backwards. Nasrat Haqparast by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Narimani: Harry
Staff picking Haqparast: Nick, Bissell, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Dayne