According to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report, the Lakers would reportedly pass on Lonzo Ball if the draft was today. I have had my theories in the past on why the Lakers will not draft him, but this report really perplexes me. Lets keep two dates in mind as of right now before we jump to conclusions even on this report. First, Ball's workout with the Lakers is on June 7th and he reportedly needs to blow the doors off his workout in order for the Lakers to draft him. Second, the draft is on June 22nd. There is plenty of time between now and then for more data to consume and minds to change.
Now let's breakdown the Lakers' options if they choose to pass on ball. I have already written pre-lottery why the Lakers should trade down with the Kingshere. With recent Jordan Clarkson trade rumors, I would give up him, Luol Deng, and the 2nd pick for the Kings' 5th pick, 10th pick, and Ben McLemore. The Lakers would probably draft De'Aaron Fox at 5, whom the Lakers have been high on for a while, and Jonathan Isaac at 10 although I would not be shocked if a team trades up before 10 to draft Isaac because he is such a high upside prospect. I can also potentially see the Orlando Magic taking him at 6, but with the way my mock is for the top 10, it would go as follows:
Malik Monk would go to the Sixers because they have a point guard in Ben Simmons, a wing defender in Robert Covington, and big men in Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid so what they need is a dynamic shooter and scorer. Ntilikina is a good fit for the Wolves because Tom Thibodeau likes scrappy, aggressive players and that is exactly what Frank is. The Knicks need a point guard so they probably choose Dennis Smith, Jr. and the Mavericks will take Markkanen because he is somewhat similar to a young Dirk Nowitzki, who would mentor him. Furthermore, Markkanen would fit so well with Nerlens Noel as the stretch 4. This is why I think the Lakers could steal Isaac at 10, whom I think has arguably the highest ceiling in the draft, but also a low floor too. Also, if they are to get Paul George, they already have positions set 1-4 in Russell, Ingram, George, and Randle. While Isaac may not be a center now, he may be down the line if he gains weight and could be a matchup nightmare. I love Ivica Zubac, but he was a second round pick for a reason and we should not put all of our eggs in his basket just yet.
If the Lakers do not trade down, would passing on Ball be smart? In my opinion, Ball is the second best prospect in this draft behind Fultz and would fit well with the Lakers. The caveat is I see this draft with one sure-fire star in Fultz, a maybe-star in Lonzo, a maybe-star in Isaac, and a bunch of role players or borderline all-stars at best. The drop from Fultz to Ball is steeper than the drop from Ball to Fox or possibly even Ntilikina. It is very similar to the NFL draft where there was Myles Garrett and everyone else. This is why I love trading down with the Kings because you can get more value from Fox and Isaac than just Ball while giving up Deng and Clarkson's contracts and take a flier on McLemore who might would be a good gamble on to revitalize his career (even though I am not high on him). If the Lakers are stuck at 2 though, I would take Lonzo Ball because of fit and best available. Jackson and Monk are just not good fits. Jackson does not fit well with Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle and he is not talented enough where you have to take him. Same with Monk and his fit with D'Angelo Russell. Monk will score and shoot but not much else. I do not see that type of player fitting with Russell well. Fox is too big of a reach at 2 because of his low ceiling as a creator and scorer. Tatum or Isaac would be the most logical choices at 2. Isaac is a big gamble because he is extremely raw. Tatum will take time to mold, but he will most likely be an undersized stretch 4. It will take a while to change his game to 3s, layups, and free throws rather than mid-range and high-post touches. If it is not Ball, I would gamble on Isaac, but Tatum would be the other next logical choice.
Now, let's talk about something highly concerning. We have seen quite a few reports so for about this front office and their plans, which means information is being leaked. This is concerning because the front office needs to play poker and not show their hand. With a leak of the Lakers reportedly not being high on Lonzo Ball, they lose some leverage if they are to trade down. If the Lakers say they are high on Lonzo Ball, they can get more trade value out of him if they engage in talks to trade down. These leaks cannot continue if the Lakers want to maximize their return in deals. They also lose some ground if they want to trade up to get Fultz, which I doubt will happen in the first place, but it makes them look more desperate and would probably give up more than they could to get Fultz.
Again, we do not know how legitimate this report is and we still have plenty of time for more evaluation between now and June 22nd including Ball's draft workout on the 7th. I do not expect Lonzo Ball to be a Laker based on this and previous reports. It makes a lot of sense for the Kings to move up and plug him with Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Buddy Hield because Ball will get them open looks. The Kings need a distributor to get them the ball and they have a nice foundation set for the future. Deng is also a good stretch 4 for them as either the starter or 6th man and Clarkson can fit well as that first guard off the bench. The Lakers can still get Fox and take a flier on Isaac. That is just my own subjective prediction. Maybe there will be other draft day trades that I have not considered that may not involve the Lakers. Maybe some stars get traded for draft picks. Let me know your thoughts below.
