Raptors Trade Deadline + Offseason
Per one of the NBA's most trusted sources, Zach Lowe:
Toronto and Washington are both eager to add another rotation player, per several league sources. The Raps roster is a little heavy on bigs after the Ibaka deal, and they still have trade chips -- all their own picks, and some interesting young guys. They have the maximum 15 players under contract, but if necessary, they could waive Jared Sullinger to clear a roster spot.
I don't personally think the Raptors offer any 1st round picks for a rental (they need the cheaper contracts)...but they could maybe do the Denver deal for Wilson Chandler (who's still under contract for next season for only $12M) mentioned earlier:
The Nuggets, for their part, are seeking a lottery-protected first-round pick and swap rights on another pick for Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, sources say.
Would the Raps flip their 2018 pick, and swap rights on 2019? Or the 2018 pick and a future 2nd rounder? That still seems steeper to me than Masai would want to go (especially considering the necessary inclusion of Joseph or a young player to make up the salary difference). That being said, typically players being shopped go for less than the original asking price.
The acquisition of Wilson Chandler would open up this possibility: Moving Demarre Carroll in the offseason, and getting off the $30.5M he's still owed. Wilson Chandler slides into the starting lineup, and though you lose a bit of defense, you gain a bit of offense (at about a $3M discount). Another benefit is that Chandler will be a free agent by the time Powell's cheap-o contract expires, whereas Carroll's contract overlaps Powell's first bid into restricted free agency.
Oh, and Chandler gives you another piece for this year's playoff run.
Finally:
Any deal involving an expensive Drakes veteran will probably wait until the summer, when the team faces a severe luxury tax crunch.
Carroll and Valanciunas are the only players that fall under this category - ie "expensive Drakes veteran" - with Derozan/Lowry being untouchable. So aside from some young guys (I think it would be safe to say that Wright/Powell are off the table for rental deals), that really only leaves Sullinger and Joseph as possible assets the team would move at this deadline (Patterson is key in this year's playoff run, so he's not going anywhere either), along with remaining young guys (Fred Van, Poeltl, Siakam, Bruno).
What will those guys and a pick or two net the Raptors? It's hard to say.
Wilson Chandler's contract necessitates a certain amount of salary heading out the other way. Joseph/Sullinger works (but would require the Nuggets to waive a player currently on their roster). Either Joseph + one of Bruno/Poeltl/Siakam works too from a money standpoint.
Giving up Joseph isn't a huge loss, as he seems to be the most expendable guy with actual salary attached to his roster spot. But throwing in anyone outside of Bruno starts to hurt the Raptors future increasingly. Can the Raptors afford to ship out Joseph, Siakam and a pick? Probably not.
The only player that can be matched alone with Sullinger (aside from Joseph) to meet the incoming salary is Poeltl. Poeltl would be an intriguing piece for the Nuggets. Jokic is their center of the future, but having acquired Mason Plumlee, they'll soon be paying through the teeth for a backup C. Poeltl has 3 years remaining on his cost-controlled rookie contract, and acquiring him gives the Nuggets an opportunity to develop Poeltl while shopping Plumlee.
The internal valuation of Poeltl, Siakam, and future 1st round picks will determine which of the three is dangled in deadline offers.
Here is where the future meets the past: That valuation is likely in large part tied to the team's assessment of Valanciunas.
Chances are there's a very real discussion about Valanciunas' long-term place on the team. His game doesn't fit today's style, and he's nowhere near dominant enough to build a roster around. He's also making $13M+ compared to Nogueira next season. That's money that could quite frankly be used elsewhere. If the team was high enough on Poeltl and Siakam, they should feel pretty confident in their ability to split time at backup C (with Nogueira moving full-time into the starter position). That makes moving them at a deadline deal less likely (or having to choose between one and the other), and increases the likelihood of shipping out a future pick instead.
The fact is, next year's salary cap starts to look more and more daunting if the Raptors play the 'sit and wait' game. The Raptors can permit themselves to sit out the rest of the trade deadline. But this offseason will not allow any time for second guessing. Valanciunas and Joseph are both good candidates to bring in either draft assets or young players on cheap contracts. Both have somewhat antiquated games (a C who can't really defend, a PG who can't shoot) that would quite frankly have more value to other teams lacking Toronto's depth.
We already know the Raptors will do everything they can to bring back Ibaka. Patterson's future is less clear. At only 27, his versatile game has tremendously more value to the Raptors than either Joseph or Valanciunas. Does the front office see it that way? It's unfortunate if they don't, given their supposed interest in analytics.
With a proactive front office, next year's opening day roster could look something like this:
C: Nogueira, Poeltl, Siakam
PF: Ibaka, Patterson
SF: Wilson Chandler, Bruno Caboclo
SG: Demar Derozan, Norman Powell
PG: Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright, Fred Vanvleet
(Under these circumstances, Chandler would be acquired for Joseph, Sullinger, 2018 1st)
Including a roster spot for next year's first round pick, that would bring the Raptors to 13 NBA contracts, with the possibility of bringing back 2 players in outgoing trades of Carroll/Valanciunas. Losing Carroll makes you a bit thinner at the wing, but with both Powell/Wright able to stand in for spot minutes, the team could look elsewhere for a backup SF with less pressure to commit to a long-term player. Maybe Bruno makes an unexpected leap and shows he can handle 12 mins a night at the position (we can dream, can't we?). Perhaps a trade involving Valanciunas or Carroll brings you back a cheap wing defender on a decent contract (a trade to Nets with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson sort of fits the bill). The Raptors could even use their draft pick to pick up a wing defender. As with every team, Raptors will be able to use 2-way contracts for 2 players in addition to their 15 man roster (maybe a place for their 2nd round pick and Axel Toupane for wing relief).
This may ultimately be too unlikely a scenario. Valanciunas and Carroll could likely be dumped for little returning salary, but flipping Joseph or Sullinger and an asset to a team like the Nuggets (who already have too many picks as it is), is not likely to take place.
One other name which could likely fit the profile is Al-Farouq Aminu, as Portland tries to shed salary for picks. As long as the Raptors kept Ibaka/Patterson, they should have enough shooting at the 4 to permit them to have Aminu's inconsistent shooting at SF.
Finally, Alec Burks is making Terrence Ross type money, despite spending about half his career on the injured reserve. Is it possible that he could provide the defensive chops needed for the Raptors starting unit? A career 36% shooter from 3, he'd be slightly undersized for the position, and his injury history would likely give anyone pause.
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Alternatively, the Raptors could purely go the route of cheaper 3 month rentals:
-PJ Tucker
-Tony Snell (RFA at end of season, with the Bucks trying to shed salary)
-Justin Holiday (Knicks should absolutely bring him back, but the Knicks are dumb and do dumb things)
-CJ Miles (likely to decline his player option for next season)
-Andre Roberson (RFA)
-Langston Galloway
-Garrett Temple (one more year on cheap movable contract)
Who would you like to see at the trade deadline, and what would it cost to get them?