Cracketology: Big East Win Targets

Photo by Ella Johnson | The Villanovan

As the calendar turns to February, things look pretty bleak for the Big East. Just three teams are safely in the field at the moment and everyone else seems to be moving away from the bubble rather than towards it. Today we'll take a look at current Wins Above Bubble scores from T-Rank and use that to calculate what the Big East needs from its at-large contenders to get over the hump. Bear in mind that right now, there are 27 teams between +1.0 and -1.0 WAB, so we're looking for Big East teams to get above +1.0 to be considered on the right side of the bubble. So what to Big East teams need to do to secure NCAA bids? Let's look:

UConn Huskies (21-1, +7.7 WAB): 0 wins

Dan Hurley's team could lose all of their remaining games and still safely be in the field, likely as a single-digit seed. They would take some bad losses along the way, so the Selection Committee would certainly knock them down a bit, but they would still have a +2.65 WAB and will be dancing no matter what happens.

St. John's Red Storm (16-5, +2.3 WAB): 4 wins

The Johnnies need to go 4-6 the rest of the way to feel secure. That would give them a +1.75 WAB that should be enough. They are favored in all their remaining games except against UConn. If they want to move their seed up, they really need to pick up at least one of the UConn games. There just isn't much left on the schedule for them to really improve their resume.

Villanova Wildcats (16-5, +2.3 WAB): 5 wins

In his first year at Villanova, Kevin Willard should feel pretty secure of dancing. They don't have a ton of heft at the top of the resume, but they are favorites in 8 of their remaining 10 and 3 of their 5 road games are against teams in the bottom half of the league. A 5-5 record would give them a +1.55 WAB. Like St. John's, there isn't a ton of room to move up, with the late February games against UConn and at St. John's being their only real resume movers.

Photo by Mason Bashkoff | Seton Hall Athletics

Seton Hall Pirates (16-6, +0.7 WAB): 6 wins

The Pirates are getting back on track after a four-game losing skid, but it doesn't get easier with road games at Villanova, Creighton, and Butler in their next four. The downside for them is they only have 9 games left and are underdogs in 6. What would really help are wins against the three teams above them as they currently only have one projected win over the field (N.C. State). If they don't win at 'Nova on Wednesday, they likely will need to either beat UConn or St. John's in the last week of the season to feel safe. Getting to 6-3 down the stretch would put them at +1.97 WAB and almost certainly secure. 5-4 would have them on the bubble and given the parity on the bubble this year, particularly with their lack of high-end wins, it probably wouldn't be enough.

Butler Bulldogs (13-9, -1.3 WAB): 8 wins

Thad Matta's seat has to be feeling a bit warm. Losing at St. John's is acceptable, but a home loss to Georgetown likely ended their fading bubble hopes. They need to go 8-1 down the stretch to feel at all comfortable, which would give them a +1.66 WAB.

Creighton Blue Jays (12-10, -1.6 WAB): 8 wins

Greg McDermott has seen his team drop 3 of 4 with two of those losses being to bottom feeders Providence and Marquette on the road. They are hanging on by a thread with only 9 games remaining. The Jays are also underdogs in 6 of those with 5 away from home. They need a miracle. 8-1 would qualify as a miracle and put them at +1.66 WAB.

Photo by Ian Bethune | Storrs Central

Georgetown (-2.5 WAB) & Xavier (-2.6 WAB): Win Out

Both of these teams are effectively done and would have to go undefeated the rest of the regular season. For the Hoyas, that would put them at +1.55 WAB while Xavier would get to +1.98 WAB. Put this in the virtually impossible bin, and note these teams do play each other on February 28th so even if both get red hot, they won't both finish in the at-large places.

DePaul (-3.1 WAB), Providence (-4.5 WAB), & Marquette (-6.5 WAB): 4 wins at MSG

DePaul is the only one of these that can get over 0.0 WAB by winning out, but their bad losses and lack of quality wins will have them on the outside looking in. Both Providence and Marquette have already taken on too much water to get above zero, so their only hope is a four-game run in the Big Apple.

Let's look at the current seed list and field:

Multibid Leagues

Big 10: 10

SEC: 9

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

A-10: 2

MAC: 2

Mountain West: 2

WCC: 2