Why Ochai Agbaji will be the key to Toronto’s trade deadline

With the trade deadline a little under two weeks away, the time to make a move is quickly approaching. The newly appointed head decision maker for the Raptors, Bobby Webster, has taken his time evaluating the roster’s needs and canvassing the market in his first season at the helm. In terms of roster needs I don’t think there’s any real questions there: the Raptors need size, and they need shooting. But how they address those needs is another predicament altogether. You see, as things currently stand, the Raptors’ have limited avenues they can pursue to improve the team.

As we look down Toronto’s roster, the list of players that are valuable to other teams (and that the Raptors are willing to trade) is slim. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram are here to stay. RJ Barrett has proven to be an integral cog in Toronto’s offense. Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley’s value is diminished to a level where Toronto would have to attach assets to move off their long-term contracts — which frankly makes them more valuable to Toronto than any other team. Collin Murray-Boyles and Jamal Shead have become long term building blocks. And Sandro Mamukelashvili has proven to be a key reserve. This leaves Webster with just a handful of players to trade as he searches for upgrades.

Then, there’s the reports that the Raptors are simply looking to duck the luxury tax. If that’s the goal, then big swing trades are likely off the table, and the answer becomes clearer. It’s simple math. Ochai Agbaji is the key to Toronto’s trade deadline.

Why Agbaji? Why not Gradey Dick or Ja’Kobe Walter? Well, primarily because Agbaji is the sixth highest paid player on the team at approximately 6.3 million dollars, trading him is the easiest way to duck the tax rather than flipping the lesser salaries of the aforementioned shooting guards. He’s also a restricted free agent this off-season which gives the acquiring team some financial flexibility. Not to mention the fact that he’s three years older than Dick and four years olders than Walter. I think we would agree that it’s far more worthwhile for the Raptors’ to bet on their development than Agbaji’s. At this point Agbaji is really the only asset on Toronto’s books that they can both afford to lose and possibly has value to another team (especially if a second-round pick or two is attached).

Now, for those of you that have been amped about the Raptors making a swing for the fences trade, this may not sound very exciting. But the truth is, the team isn’t ready for a move like that yet. At this point last year, the Raptors were 14-32. Contenders aren’t built overnight, and I think a roster rebalancing move is what this team needs rather than an overhaul. The starting lineup has played limited games together and there’s intrinsic value in growing as a group. A small and simple Agbaji trade could be just what the team needs, helping to unclog the shooting guard logjam — and assuming he’s traded for a center — would put a band-aid on that problem too.

Okay, so if Agbaji is the best candidate for a trade, what could the Raptors possibly get in return for a guy who’s shooting 19% from three this season? Keep in mind that the Raptors have to send out approximately one million dollars more than they receive to stay under the tax line.

Well, on Tuesday, Sportsnet’s Michael Grange reported that two names to keep an eye on for a potential trade are Brooklyn Nets’ Day’Ron Sharpe and Orlando Magic’s Goga Bitadze. Both are solid backup centers for their respective teams and would represent a significant upgrade over the cobbled together center core the Raptors have been rolling out this season.

Sharpe, at just 24 years old and standing at six-foot-ten, is averaging 7.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in just 17.9 minutes per game while shooting 61.4% from the field, 21.4% from three (on less than one attempt per game), and 66.7% from the free throw line. Over nearly his entire career he’s had a positive net rating, largely due to his rebounding and ability to force turnovers. When he’s on the court his team grabs more offensive rebounds, more defensive rebounds, and forces more turnovers. He ranks in the 91st percentile of bigs in assist rate. And this year he’s also seen a drastic improvement in his rim finishing, and his screening could boost the play of Quickley as an added bonus.

Bitadze on the other hand, is 26 years old and stands at six-foot-eleven, he’s averaging 6.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 16.8 minutes per game while shooting 68.8% from the field, 20.0% from three (on 0.3 attempts), and 73.1% from the free throw line. He’s far more efficient than Sharpe, but less bruising down low as a rim threat. Though his defense is strong as both a shot blocker and in getting steals.

Bitadze has carved himself a role with the Magic as a backup five man, but with Moritz Wagner recently returning from an ACL injury Bitadze’s minutes are likely to wane. The return of Wagner presents an opportunity for the Magic to flip Bitadze and Agbaji could be an excellent addition. Currently the Magic rank 29th in three point accuracy and 26th in frequency. While Agbaji has clearly been in a slump this year, he has a career accuracy of 34.0%, and maybe the change of scenery would do him some good.

The issue with a trade for both centers is that Sharpe makes 6.2 million while Bitadze makes 8.3 million. Both trades would require the Raptors to send additional salary out to slip under the luxury tax. It makes a deal far more difficult, especially in the case of Bitadze where the Raptors would have to add nearly 3 million in salary, leaving only Dick’s contract as a possible addition. For Sharpe, the job is far easier, his salary is less than Agbaji’s and the Raptors could throw in Jonathan Mogbo to get it done. Of the two Sharpe would likely cost more in draft capital, but would allow the Raptors to keep Dick and in my opinion is a better fit than Bitadze. (Doesn’t hurt that Sharpe and Barnes also played at Montverde together)

With multiple reports stating the Raptors’ desire to stay under the tax this season, and the lack of options to do so, I would hold off on buying an Agbaji jersey. He represents both the easiest way to duck the tax and open up minutes for other shooting guards (a position in which the Raptors have a dozen players). While his on-court value may not be high, he’s a relatively cheap (and expiring) contract a playoff team could take a swing on or with additional pick compensation could be enticing for a team like Brooklyn to move off Sharpe as they continue their endless rebuild.

With just under two weeks until the trade deadline on February 5th, Agbaji represents Toronto’s most likely pathway in achieving their goals. Regardless of where he ends up, it seems that Agbaji’s days as a Raptor are numbered.

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