Xs and Os: Prepping Toronto’s pseudo-playoff game against the Knicks
The Toronto Raptors, amid a weeks-long collapse, are about to face a real basketball test. The first one posed to the team since 2022, which team rostered one single player who remains on the team: Scottie Barnes. (By the way, a shocking seven players from that team are no longer in the NBA.) Vis a vis that aforementioned collapse? If the Raptors continue to play unlike themselves and slime their way around the court, they could be absolutely humiliated by the Knicks, who are currently 16-7 and second in the East. They are 8-2 over their last 10 and climbing while Toronto’s stock is losing.
At the same time, New York is 3-6 on the road, and Toronto’s exceptional play earlier in the season means it gets to host this contest. Toronto needs to take this game seriously. It’s very possible that this contest, with far more viewership than a regular regular-season game for Toronto, will have an outsized impact on the All-Star candidacies of players like Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. And more importantly, Toronto needs to stop its slide.
Far more rests on this game than a simple tick in the win-loss column. It is the most important basketball game Toronto has played for a long, long time. (Since the play-in game against the Chicago Bulls that doesn’t bear consideration.) So let’s also take it seriously and prep this thing.
(If you remember these previews from me from back in the day, this is a very condensed version. I’m not writing 6000 words for a one-off game. I have kids now and need to sleep. Still, this will give the lay of the land.)
Injuries
The Knicks report Miles McBride (ankle) is out, while Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) is questionable.
For Toronto, RJ Barrett (knee) is out, while Jamison Battle (ankle) is doubtful and Jamal Shead (quad) is questionable.
The Basic Identities
The Raptors have had multiple identities through the year. For a time, they were a relentless and well-oiled machine of movement, transition tempo, and assists. Recently, their effort has waxed and waned, their shooting has been middling, and their possessions have ground down to isolations without creating much from off-ball screens and cutting. There has been no driving or rim pressure. The defence has seen its rotations far less crisp, its rebounding collapse, and its turnover generation fall apart. Bad!
On the whole, the Raptors rank 10th in offence and 7th in defence, according to Cleaning the Glass. They foul a bunch and don’t win the rebounding battle. But they get to the rim a ton and have been efficient when shooting while winning the turnover battle. (That has especially slipped during the last few weeks without RJ Barrett.) They run in transition more than anyone else, especially after rebounds and, yes, even after opposing makes. They’ve still been a very good team on the year on the whole.
Meanwhile, the Knicks rank second on offence and 13th on defence. They started the season a touch slow (and were even below .500 after five games) but have been fantastic since. They play slow and physical and trust that in a glacial game, Jalen Brunson will do on one end what opposing half-court offences can’t do to OG Anunoby on the other. They create a host of corner triples.
They win the possession battle as much or more than any team other than the Oklahoma City Thunder. Mitchell Robinson smashes the offensive glass, they clean their own, and they simply don’t turn over the ball on offence. This is probably one determining factor of the game: Toronto needs to have more shooting possessions than New York, or it basically has no chance in the game. Turnovers, especially needless ones, will be death for Toronto.
The Season Series
The Knicks beat the Raptors 116-94 on Nov. 30, the only time the two teams played this season. Woof. It was the first contest during which opponents finally went berserk from deep after Toronto rode something of a lucky streak during its winning days that saw opponents far underperform from deep. Not the Knicks. They hit nine in the first quarter, as McBride (not playing in this one) went especially bananas. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl were missing for Toronto and Anunoby for the Knicks.
It’s not like Toronto could just roar into the lead and leave the Knicks in the dust. They’re far, far too good for that. But the Raptors could make a game of it.
That in itself was an answer. It came in the form of Barnes being the best player on a court that also featured Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. (Karl-Anthony Towns? He was playing? Oh yeah, Barnes was guarding him, more or less turning him invisible in the game.) Toronto’s answer came in the form of Murray-Boyles winning his possessions on both ends of the court. It came in the form of remembering what winning looks like for these Raptors.
Unfortunately for the Raptors, that was the high-water mark.
The lesson needed re-learning in the second half. The Raptors couldn’t control their own glass, which has been a consistent problem without Jakob Poeltl. Josh Hart hit a contested triple, then saw an uncontested look on the very next possession, which he of course drilled. Ingram committed a silly turnover with unnecessary overdribbling, then another passing without reading the defence, then another as he drove too aggressively into a waiting dig. Though Quickley went berserk, hitting a variety of triples, the Raptors just couldn’t stay connected.
Ultimately, it ended up a massacre despite Toronto making a game of it very, very briefly. But then New York won every rebound, loose ball, and physicality contest, and the game quickly became a beatdown. If Toronto is going to have a chance, the level of precision and attention to detail will need to remain absolute. New York can pull away at any moment, as the Raptors learned well.
Starter Matchups
Toronto:
PG: Immanuel Quickley
SG: Ja’Kobe Walter
SF: Brandon Ingram
PF: Scottie Barnes
C: Jakob Poeltl
New York:
PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Mikal Bridges
SF: Josh Hart
PF: OG Anunoby
C: Karl-Anthony Towns
Last time the two teams played, Ja’Kobe Walter guarded Mikal Bridges. That will certainly remain the same. He did a fairly good job, even holding Brunson to 6-of-19 shooting. He had a great block showing length against a step-through. But the team overhelped, or got caught watching the matchup, and didn’t rotate well behind the play. (That was until Collin Murray-Boyles entered the game later on, but that wasn’t the starter matchup.)
That may be the only matchup that’s the same. (Probably not, but it’s possible.) With Poeltl out for Toronto, Barnes guarded Towns and did a brilliant job. I would guess he’ll do the same again, allowing Poeltl to guard Josh Hart and roam into the lane to keep rotations shorter and sharper. But it’s very possible Poeltl guards Towns to start and keeps things cleaner. I’ll assume the former option. Ingram will likely guard OG Anunoby and Quickley Mikal Bridges. Ingram will have to be very solid. He’s been bullied by big wings in the past this season, and he’s been closing out very poorly in recent games, giving up straight-line drives, especially along the baseline. Anunoby will eat his lunch if that’s the case again.
On the other end, I imagine the Knicks are a little less stylized. Anunoby probably guards Barnes and uses his enormous might to stop Barnes from dominating in the paint. If he wins that matchup, that could doom Toronto’s half-court offence all on its own. Bridges will likely use his noodle length to deter Quickley’s shooting and chase his drives from behind. That would leave Hart on Ingram, although if if New York doesn’t like that option, it could rotate that trio of wing defenders and shift Anunoby to Ingram and Hart to Barnes. Then Towns will of course match up with Poeltl, and Brunson will hide on Walter, as he did last game. Toronto will desperately need to find ways to involve him in actions, whether that means Walter gets some chances as a screener, or if Walter doesn’t play as much. But if Brunson can simply guard the corner and exert little effort on defence, Toronto will be in trouble.
Some other notes:
- Toronto needs to force switches. When Brunson-Towns guards pick and rolls, New York’s defence is pressured in ways that it simply isn’t otherwise. Poeltl is a fantastic screener, and Toronto will use him quite a bit there. But New York will have an easy time keeping Brunson out of actions. Toronto needs to get creative, whether by running Walter in Spain pick and rolls, as a staggered screener in skip the 77, or otherwise. Or even if Walter just screens for the ball himself, ghosts to induce a switch, and then that new player runs a quick get action with Poeltl to get Brunson into the action. There are options. But if New York doesn’t have to move on defence, doesn’t have to make choices, Toronto’s half-court offence will be dead in the water. It has been putrid recently, and it will take real intentionality to score against New York. I’ll be watching the first few scripted plays of the game very closely to see what Darko Rajakovic’s plans are.
- New York doesn’t run as many isolations as it did last year (more on that later). But they still run a fair number. And if Barnes gets to camp in the lane at all, he could really wreak havoc on New York’s offence. When Toronto’s defence is comfortable, and Barnes is unlocked, the Raptors force misses and turnovers quite well.
- Poeltl has to be way, way better than he has been recently. There aren’t many non-shooters on New York, so he’ll need to move around and contest shots while still cracking back to eat the glass. Even when he guards Robinson, if he brings the effort and physicality he had against Boson, he will have trouble impacting the game. If his injury continues to hamper him, Toronto’s defence could be up a creek when Poeltl is on the floor.
The Bench
Neither team sees a whole lot of points from its bench players, with the Raptors (24th) and Knicks (28th) both ranking near the bottom there. On the other hand, both teams win minutes with bench players in the game, with Toronto (third) and New York (11th) both near the top for bench plus-minus. So there’s a lot going on there beyond scoring.
For Toronto, Gradey Dick and Sandro Mamukelashvili and Jamal Shead just win minutes. Sure, there’s a lot going on beneath the surface. All three have seen their play dip during this losing streak. But the team remains better with its bench in the game. The Barnes-plus-bench lineup especially has been dominant, at a laughably dominant plus-33.0 points per 100 possessions. Every iteration of that group flat-out dominates the possession battle, takes virtually every shot at the rim, and flat-out runs in transition like you wouldn’t believe. There’s money in them there hills.
The Ingram-plus-bench group has been just okay. That’s one major problem right now for Toronto is that Barnes is carrying every lineup with Barrett out. Dick and the rest of the bench players aren’t creating much for themselves. It all relies on primary creators. That’s one area where Barrett is greatly missed, simply as another creator. If Toronto can cobble together won minutes with Barnes on the bench (Shead, Dick, Ingram, Murray-Boyles, Mamukelashvili have won minutes together!) and build a lead with Barnes on the floor, that’s a path to victory.
For New York, with Hart starting and Robinson back to the bench (probably) and McBride out, there is just no scoring coming off the pine. Tyler Kolek and Jordan Clarkson will get some shots up. But Toronto will have a real advantage if New York plays loose with its rotations. The Knicks are dominant with five, four, or three starters on the floor. Brunson and Towns can carry a huge amount of creation burden, no matter who they play with. Fewer than three and New York starts to lose minutes. Meanwhile the Raptors are the best team in the league with one starter on the floor and near the top with two. That doesn’t bode well if both teams tighten rotations as if the game were a playoff matchup.
Offensive and Defensive Styles
The Raptors and Knicks are, in many ways, opposites.
The Knicks are a plodding team that relies heavily on guard creation. The Raptors are a blazing fast team that asks less of its guards than almost any other in the league. New York doesn’t run nearly as many pick and rolls as it did last year, but it still runs more — and is far better at them — than Toronto. New York doesn’t rely on nearly as man movement (the cut frequency is half as high, off-screen frequency half as high) as Toronto. And yet it is far more efficient when shooting out of cuts. New York does pass even more than Toronto, and it is even better at limiting turnovers. Mike Brown has done an excellent job with New York’s offence.
The Knicks don’t run a lot in transition, but they are very efficient when they do so. (Thanks Bridges, Anunoby, and Hart!) They have more and better shooters than the Raptors, and they are near the top of the league in efficiency and frequency on spot-up attempts, while the Raptors are near the bottom in both. If this becomes a simple half-court shooting contest, the Raptors will lose.
One similarity between the teams is that with Mike Brown replacing Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks initiate via handoff far more this season. They rival Toronto there for frequency and are almost as efficient on those plays. Towns being such a deadly long-range shooter means a whole lot there in moving the defence before handoffs even begin.
Defensively, the Knicks don’t have enough feasible pick-and-roll coverages with Towns in the game. He is poor at navigating drop, and New York is poor at protecting him when he switches or goes up to the level of the screen. Poeltl could do damage there.
Prediction
I hate to do it, but I don’t see a whole lot of paths for Toronto to win. Poeltl has to play at his best. Barnes has to dominate. I actually don’t have a whole lot of worry about that one, but Anunoby missed the last contest when Barnes drove some winning stretches. It will be harder this time around. Ingram has to hit his shots and play far, far, far, far better defence than he has in recent weeks. And Toronto has to win the possession battle.
Do all that, and the Raptors probably go to Vegas. But in all likelihood, it’s too much to ask for right now from a team that can’t find its identity for 48 minutes at a time. A win would do wonders for Toronto in turning its season around. A loss would continue a slide that is endangering Toronto’s brilliant start to the season.
This game is more important than most.
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