2025 NBA Cup math, schedule update: Rockets unlikely to advance

Entering Thanksgiving week, all 30 teams have at least one of their four group-stage games remaining in Emirates NBA Cup 2025 action. Some have two.

But for the Houston Rockets (10-4 on the 2025-26 regular season, 1-2 in Cup play), elimination appears almost inevitable after Friday’s group-stage loss to the Denver Nuggets.

To explain why, let’s look at the Cup standings entering the week:

After their winning their group in the 2024 NBA Cup, the Rockets have already lost the possibility of doing so in 2025. Even if the Rockets win their group-stage finale at Golden State on Wednesday night, Houston’s best-case outcome is a 2-2 mark.

The only way 2-2 would be tied for the Group C lead is if Portland loses at home to San Antonio on Wednesday, followed by the Spurs winning at Denver two nights later. Without that combination of results, at least one of the Trail Blazers and Nuggets would have three group-stage wins, which inherently eliminates Houston.

But even if that unlikely 2-2 scenario somehow played out, the Rockets would be 1-2 against the other three teams in that 2-2 tie. The Spurs and Nuggets would each be 2-1, thus eliminating Houston as a potential group winner.

So, Group C is off the table.

Mathematically, the Rockets do remain alive for the wild-card slot, which goes to the top second-place finisher in each conference. For example, if this week’s games go according to the Vegas odds, it’s quite possible that the Spurs could defeat Portland but lose to Denver, creating a three-way tie between the Rockets, Trail Blazers, and Spurs at 2-2. Since each team would be 1-1 against the other two, head-to-head, it would come down to point differential — and Houston is well ahead of Portland (-18) and currently tied with San Antonio (+10) there.

Should Houston win that tiebreaker, the Rockets would finish second in in Group C. But looking at the remainder of the West, it’s unlikely for that to be enough to earn the wild card.

For starters, if any second-place team in Group A or Group B gets to three wins, the Rockets are automatically eliminated. Last season, both wild-card teams went 3-1 in group play.

But even if 2-2 somehow becomes enough for a tie, the point differential of the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1, +53) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0, +63) will be difficult to overcome. At the moment, those teams — who play each other on Wednesday — are 43 and 53 points ahead of the Rockets, respectively.

So, in order for Houston’s 2-2 mark to somehow be enough to advance, the Rockets would need to make up at least 43 combined points between the final margin of their road game against the Warriors and the remaining group games for the Timberwolves and Thunder.

To say the least, that’s a tall order.

As a result, while not mathematically eliminated just yet, the odds are overwhelmingly against the Rockets advancing to the eight-team knockout phase.

There could, however, be some consolation. Should the Rockets improbably advance to the knockout rounds as a wild card, they would play on the road in the quarterfinal round. From there, should they win, their next game would be in Las Vegas for a neutral-site semifinal.

On the other hand, if the Rockets are eliminated, they would have two games added to their schedule versus West rivals who they are currently slated to play only three times (and not the usual four for most same-conference teams). These add-on games, which would be played during the week of Dec. 9-16 allow all teams to finish at 82 regular-season games in the final 2025-26 standings — i.e. the same as those who gain additional games from advancing to the knockout rounds. The Cup title game does not count toward regular-season standings.

For the Rockets, in contrast to the wild-card scenario, it’s worth noting that one of those two add-on games would be at home, inside Toyota Center.

The possible opponent pool consists of the Thunder, Warriors, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers — and since these would be non-Cup matchups, it would have to be opponents who were also eliminated in group-stage play.

Breaking down that group of six, the home matchup would likely come against a team that is currently on the books for only one appearance in Houston this season. Based on the current schedule, that’s the Warriors, Nuggets, and Thunder.

Conversely, the other three teams — the Lakers, Clippers, and Timberwolves — are only scheduled to get one visit from Houston this season. So, those would likely be the three in the mix for Houston’s add-on road game.

Since the Warriors are almost certain to be eliminated after the Cup’s group stage — and the Nuggets and Thunder are likely to advance to the knockout rounds — the odds would suggest that Golden State becomes Houston’s additional home game in December.

For the add-on road game, the Timberwolves and the loser of Tuesday’s Lakers-Clippers Cup showdown — both Los Angeles teams are 2-0 in Group B, at the moment — would seem to be the strongest candidates.

So, relative to advancing in Cup play, being eliminated would give the Rockets one additional home game. Furthermore, if the add-on games become the Warriors and Clippers, both of those teams are currently at .500 or below this season. As a result, it’s probably to Houston’s scheduling interest for the Clippers to lose on Tuesday night, though it could be argued that the looming return of Kawhi Leonard makes them more of a threat.

Conversely, should Houston somehow advance, any knockout-round opponent would likely be a stronger team. After all, there’s probably a good reason why that team advanced.

It’s a small silver lining, but it’s not nothing. By not advancing in Cup play, the Rockets are likely to get one more home game at Toyota Center — and it’s likely to be a fun one versus Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and the hated Warriors.

For the Rockets and other teams across the league, those Dec. 9-16 matchups, dates, and times will be announced after the Nov. 28 conclusion of all group-stage games (schedule).

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