Four stats I like for the Raptors offense so far
It’s a cold, brisk night in Toronto. I take my son down the 1 line to union station, where we exit and begin the short walk to Scotiabank Arena. We’re here to watch a Raptors game. We scan our tickets, cut through the concourse, and step out into the arena before us. My son looks at me, a twinkle in his eyes, and says: “Dad, is this where they make the stats?”
So, stats are important. Especially stats that measure simple, important things. The Raptors are, as of now, the 9th ranked offense in the NBA (per cleaning the glass) and the 11th ranked halfcourt offense. Some of this, surely, has to do with their pace of play and they’re paying for that on defense. However, they’re tinkering and trying things to sort out that side of the court. For now, I’d like to focus on 4 stats that I think are really important for where the Raptors are offensively.
1. RJ Barrett is shooting 73-percent at the rim.
There’s always been this inherent tension in Barrett’s game around his rim pressure. Why? Well, because he is historically a below average finisher, and especially relative to his volume. It’s why his development as a passer last season was particularly nice to see – because the playmaking out of his drives became arguably his greatest asset as an offensive weapon. Before this season, Bobby Webster cited getting Barrett less attention on offense so he could attack second side actions. It’s not an entirely new thing, as Barrett was operating in this fashion during at least a portion of his first half season with the Raptors – next to Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes.
Barrett has quietly been the most adaptable offensive player on the Raptors roster. Taking on different forms and usage whenever asked. This year? He has found a fairly potent mix of transition opportunities, second side attacking, primary pick n’ roll handling, and cutting. The result? A true-shooting percentage of 65%, a very passable 37% from downtown, and nearly matching Brandon Ingram in drives per game.
It’s become quite clear that Barrett is capable of getting past his man and downhill. He’s also okay at finishing over rim protectors as a cutter. He has trouble though, getting past his man and finishing over rim protectors in the same possession. It’s a hard ask, and I don’t blame him for it. I will credit he and the Raptors though, for finding a more complementary balance for him. He’s seen a slight drop in points per game and a huge boost in efficiency.
2. Brandon Ingram is shooting 60% on pull up middy’s and 43% on C&S triples
This one isn’t as exciting or layered as the Barrett stat. This is what Raptors fans, and the Raptors front office wanted from Ingram. It’s what analysts like myself, who liked the trade at the time, were envisioning. The Raptors were a team last year that got the ball to great spots on the floor. They were a team that ranked 4th in the NBA in expected effective field goal percentage because they were taking shots from “good” spots on the floor – and missing them. They ranked 23rd in actual effective field goal percentage. This year, they are 7th in effective field goal percentage, and they rank 13th in the expected stat.
Ingram was brought here to help create, sure, but he was brought to Toronto to make shots. And to take tougher shots. In doing all this, he was meant to juggle the Raptors offensive hierarchy accordingly and place easier shots into the hands of others. So far, he has done it in spades. When the ball pings around the court and finds his hands to finish from downtown? He’s cashing, even if it’s a contested look. When the Raptors offense stalls out and needs a savior, he’s been there to scoop them out of mediocrity in the halfcourt, and he’s doing it with mid-range shot making.
He’s been as advertised.
3. Scottie Barnes is scoring as a roll man 3x more than last season
While the trio of Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett are all scoring north of 20 points per game, I’ve highlighted above how Ingram and Barrett are creating and finishing in the halfcourt. This has left less room for Barnes to drive offense on ball. Still though, he’s currently averaging a career high in points. It’s because the Raptors have him running out in transition far more often now, where he’s making a killing (79th %ile as a scorer, top 25% of the league in volume) as a finisher. They’re also asking him to connect the dots on offense more often as a finishing big. A screener and roller.
Click here for a breakdown on Barnes’ screencraft and rolling from Louis and I.
Barnes is far too talented to never get on ball reps, yes, but he’s also far too good a finisher, too big, too strong, to never be asked to set screens and roll with gumption towards the cup. His usage as a screener has gone way up from last season, and so too has his finishing. It’s not even necessarily about how he’s finished there — because he’s gone up against some of the biggest frontcourts in the NBA in the first stretch of the season — but rather that the Raptors have a clear idea on some of his usage and how they can utilize his skillset. Not to mention the trickle down effect of Barnes being much more than a scorer, but a downhill facilitator after the catch.
If we’re talking drives that start with the ball in his hand? Barnes has seen his numbers take a drastic dive according to last year. But, the Raptors are supplementing that by getting him downhill without asking him to beat someone off the dribble. In doing so, they’ve cut away at some of the volume he has in the mid-range and moved it back towards the rim – a huge boon.
4. Collin Murray-Boyles is dunking nearly twice as often in the NBA vs. College
So, this one is two-fold. It’s very important to me that CMB has the athleticism, the lift, the physicality, and the length to dunk the basketball and finish possessions. In all of my pre-draft analysis and post-draft analysis I credited CMB for having what I view as rather immaculate touch as a finisher. However, that isn’t much of a feature as an undersized big, but rather a means of survival. CMB can finish in difficult contexts, and creatively over big rim protectors. But, he needs easy looks at the rim, too.
The fact that he’s dunking says a couple things to me. Firstly, that his quick leaping ability, his length and his strength are translating pretty well to the NBA for him to compete above the rim on occasion. Secondly, that the Raptors are actually creating a nice amount of lay downs and locating their big(s) for opportunities to finish at the rim in this manner. It’s something to keep an eye on, and will likely be something that defines CMB’s efficiency as a big going forward, at least in part.
Those are the stats! Hope you enjoyed!
Have a blessed day.
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