Connecticut Preview, 2025-26

State of the Program

After two straight National Championships, it seemed like Dan Hurley had built an unstoppable juggernaut in Storrs. Instead the Huskies stumbled out of the gate, losing three games in Maui. Those three losses in November matched their total loss count from the season before. UConn was still competitive, going 24-11 (14-6) and finishing third in the league, but considering the two preceding years, an 8-seed and second round exit (albeit after a narrow loss to eventual National Champs Florida) had to feel like a disappointment. But instead of regressing, UConn has reinforced their roster with a mix of transfer additions and high school talent. They'll be right back in the mix at the top of the Big East again.

Style of Play

UConn's offense is known for running a ton of sets. It's deep, complex, and firmly structured. They like to play a lot through the middle. Last year they were in the 70th percentile or higher in percentage of post up, inside out, pick and pop, and big man cut/roll plays in the country. The problem UConn's offense ran into was they while they've never been a drive heavy team, their past drives succeeded in finding shooters at the arc. Last year, their shooting tailed off a bit and Hassan Diarra, while a fine reserve, was unable to create shots for himself the way Tristen Newton did. Because he was less of an individual threat and because the shooters weren't as accurate, the offensive efficiency dropped. That said, UConn still ranked #15 in offensive efficiency, which is excellent. It just wasn't elite like the #1 and #3 rankings of the two previous seasons. Offensively, the question will be how long it takes Demary and Smith to catch up to the system. In 2022-23, UConn was a good team that became elite as Tristen Newton turned the corner from game manager to offensive maestro. In 2023-24, Newton's mastery of the playbook led to season-long dominance. The Demary/Smith combo should provide better long range accuracy at the point than Diarra gave, and returning Karaban to more of a catch and shoot role rather than secondary creator should pay offensive dividends. Their offense may be a work in progress in November, but expect big things by the end of the season.

Defense is where UConn really fell off. After ranking in the top-7 both of the championship years, the Huskies were just 75th nationally per kenpom. Breaking down the four factors, it's pretty clear that opponent three-point accuracy was the change. They had suffered poor turnovers and free throw rates before, their offensive rebounding and rim protection was on par with the title years, and they didn't allow significantly more shots from beyond the arc relative to the previous seasons. They did allow teams to make 40+% from deep far more often and struggled to win those games. Defensive three-point accuracy is often considered to be a function of luck, so some of UConn's 2025 backslide may have been bad fortune, but Hurley's teams had ranked in the top-100 of 3PFG% defense in 8 of the past 11 seasons going back to his time at Rhode Island. Five of those teams ranked in the top-40. When it came to challenging shots, UConn simply didn't have the length and athleticism on the perimeter that they had in recent years. Looking at the defensive shot charts from the last three years (above) UConn was dominant in the paint but their arc defense is a major shift. In 2023 and 2024, teams struggled to find good looks at the arc, but the heat map improves significantly in 2025.

Strategically, expect UConn to continue chasing teams off the three-point line and forcing them inside to Reed and Reibe. While opponent accuracy from three can sway things as it did last year, the strategy of limiting threes and denying at the rim has been brutally effective, even last year. Again, the problem wasn't the number of threes or the rim defense, it was almost exclusively how accurate teams were from deep that led to the defensive regression. Reed emerging as a defensive force should help. UConn was 11-2 in games where he played more than 20 minutes and that should be the case more often than not in 2025-26.

2025-26 Outlook 

This roster fits together incredibly well. Demary and Smith provide an excellent 1-2 point guard punch and will have the ability to play together in stretches. Ball will have less defensive pressure on his plate thanks to Demary which will allow him to just be a flamethrower. Last year, it also felt like too much pressure was put on Liam McNeeley to score for UConn. Braylon Mullins is a similarly competent scorer but won't have so much pressure on him to deliver with the talent around him and on the bench behind him. The departure of Samson Johnson is also likely addition by subtraction because it will lead to more minutes for Tarris Reed, who is simply a better player. This team may not reach the heights that Hurley's best teams did, but while we had questions about last year's roster, this year Hurley has answered all of those questions emphatically. Newcomers at the point may lead to a slower start than the Huskies had in their recent championship years, but there are enough options there that it seems likely Hurley will be able to figure that out by February, by which time UConn will be a Big East and National Title threat once again.

One Man's Opinion

This team is reminiscent of Hurley's first title-winning team, and on a tier of their own as our pick to finish #1 in the Big East. Ball and Reed are the returning studs like Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo. Demary and Smith are the newcomers who offer two different point guard looks like Tristen Newton and Hassan Diarra. And Alex Karaban is Alex Karaban, only older. Whether this team reaches those heights remains to be seen. A lot has to come together for any team to make a deep March run. In terms of the Big East, however, I feel they are on a tier of their own and the clear favorites in the league. St. John's may be ranked similarly in the preseason but their roster flaws are too glaring to put them on UConn's level. Marquette and Creighton both are great on one side of the ball but need to prove they are effective on both ends of the court. For the time being, the safe assumption is that the road to the Big East crown runs through Storrs.