Oklahoma Preview, 2025-26
Oklahoma Sooners
November 28th, 2025 at Credit Union 1 Arena in Chicago, IL
Head Coach: Porter Moser (367-301 overall, 74-59 at Oklahoma)
Three-Year NET Average: 53.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 46.7
Projected 2025-26 T-Rank: 31
Photo by Brendall Vargas | University of Oklahoma
State of the Program
For the fourth year in a row under Porter Moser, when Oklahoma looked up at the end of January, they were in a familiar position: on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. For the fourth year in a row, they suffered a losing record from the start of February until Selection Sunday. The first three times that happened under Moser, they missed the Tournament. Last year, aided by the monster that was the SEC, they still managed to sneak in as a 9-seed, losing to UConn in the first round. As is becoming more normal in the transfer era, their top seven rotation players all left through graduation, transfer, or NBA Draft early entry. Moser returns just two rotation players that averaged double-digit minutes last year and built the rest of his rotation through the portal. The question in Norman is whether that NCAA bid and a general focus on football was enough to quell hot seat talk, or if another disappointing end to the season could have Moser moving on.
Rotation
Expect ball-handling duties to be shared pretty equally between St. Joe's transfer Xzayvier Brown and Miami transfer Nijel Pack. Both are competent creators and efficient scorers. Based on how Moser likes to play, Brown will likely be the one attacking the rim and either finishing through contact or kicking out to shooters. Pack is best as a motion catch-and-shoot option. Both are competent but unspectacular defenders. Derrion Reid was a five-star recruit for Alabama who saw his numbers dwindle as the season went on. He was likely just not a great fit for Alabama's rim/three heavy offense as he took 22.7% of his shots in the midrange while making just 36.8% of those. He has the athleticism and length to be a high-level talent on both ends, but he's at his best on the interior and to truly develop as a wing needs to get more comfortable outside the arc. Oklahoma fans are hoping that a system friendlier to his game and a potential freshman-to-sophomore leap could lead to breakout star status for Reid. Tae Davis has labored his way up the high-major ranks, arriving at Oklahoma after stints at Seton Hall and Notre Dame. Davis showed off his highest usage and efficiency last year. He's not afraid to mix it up inside and while he's not the best shooter, his aggressiveness pays off in offensive rebounds and trips to the free throw line. Mohamed Wague will be this team's defensive anchor. He has been a career rotation player, but when he plays, his teams shine defensively. His West Virginia freshman year team was 7.6 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor, his Alabama sophomore year team was 7.7/100 better with him on the floor, and last year's Oklahoma team was 8.5/100 better with him on the floor. While he's a capable shot blocker, it's as much his quick hands and ability to create turnovers inside that makes him a dangerous defender. He's also a very high efficiency offensive piece and dominant interior finisher; he converts 69.6% at the rim with 87.5% of his shots taken there. The bench generally has experience in Oklahoma's system, though not on the court. While Dayton Forsythe played efficient reserve minutes last year, both Jadon Jones and Jeff Nwankwo redshirted in 2024-25 for the Sooners. All three are dangerous three-point shooters, bolstering what is typically a strength of Moser's best teams. Freshman Kai Rogers hails from Milwaukee and was productive at Overtime Elite but will likely get reserve minutes this year.
Style of Play
Moser runs a heavy dribble-drive offense, with the ball-handler getting to the rim or creating shots with drive-and-kick or pick-and-roll options. Those cuts could come from anywhere, with both perimeter players like Reid and Nwankwo or bigs like Davis and Wague able to finish at the rim. His best offenses have come with multiple creators (Custer/Richardson at Loyola, McCollum/Uzan in 2023-24, Elvis/Fears in 2024-25) and this roster is no different with Brown and Pack following that mold. The Sooners also like to get out in transition. They've ranked in the 77th or better percentile each of the past two years in transition usage despite sub-100 turnover rates each season. Expect them to attack quickly off both turnovers and made baskets. One note, Oklahoma's offense tends to get worse as the season goes on, which isn't particularly helpful for a Marquette team that will play them in November. Their overall efficiency, particularly on the offensive end, has declined with the start of conference play once teams have more tape on them to review. Bear in mind the numbers below are adjusted for tempo and strength of opponent, so this isn't just a "beating up on cupcakes" phenomenon. That's also underscored by their overall record.
Moser's defense is complex, prioritizing positioning and movement over raw athleticism. Wague is a good example as someone who excels at keeping teams out of the paint without being a dominant shot-blocker. Expect his teams to switch frequently while sticking to man-to-man. His teams challenge every shot and their movement cuts down passing lanes. While athleticism hasn't been a necessity (see his 2021 Loyola-Chicago team ranked #2 nationally) this team does have more athleticism than he's had in the past. Reid, Jones, and Nwankwo all have high defensive-upside while Rogers 7'3" wingspan provides a true rim-protecting presence when Wague goes to the bench.
2025-26 Outlook
On paper, there's a lot to like with this Oklahoma roster. The two-guard tandem, the talent and athleticism on the wings, and the strong defensive backbone all point to a team that should be NCAA caliber. However Pack, Reid, Jones, and Nwankwo all missed significant time last year with injuries, particularly the latter two who redshirted because of those injuries. This team's depth could be tested this year. If Oklahoma is healthy, the pieces are in place to finally sustain season-long success, but don't be surprised if the defense takes longer to come together. The Sooners rank #311 in returning minutes (11.1%) according to T-Rank and while they do have more athleticism to execute the defense, most of the best offensive players (Brown, Pack, Davis) and best defensive players (Forsythe, Jones, Nwankwo) aren't the same people. Moser will have to figure out his rotation and this feels like a team that may not be clicking until January or February, which would be quite the shift from Moser's history at OU. In addition to Marquette, they also have Gonzaga, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and Wake Forest on their non-conference schedule, all of whom will be hoping to get into the NCAA at-large mix. If they don't get off to their typical strong start, another February fade could have Moser looking for work come March.
Marquette Connection
This will be the first time Marquette has played Oklahoma, but what's worth looking at is the contrast at the top. In 2021 after Marquette hired Steve Wojciechowski, Marquette found itself one of the most prominent jobs available in a coaching carousel where Arizona, Cincinnati, Indiana, Minnesota, North Carolina, Penn State, and Oklahoma all also turned over. At the time, this very blog had contributors advocate for both Porter Moser and Shaka Smart. Moser had a number of ties to Marquette. He was an assistant to Tony Barone at Creighton and Texas A&M, whose son Brian would later play at Marquette. After a pair of head coaching stints, Moser became an assistant to former Marquette coach Rick Majerus at Saint Louis. While Smart was hired by Marquette a day before (March 26th) Moser's Loyola-Chicago team was eliminated from the 2021 NCAA Tournament (March 27th), it was Moser who was the closest candidate to getting the Marquette post before the Smart decision was made and Marquette's decision (coupled with Indiana hiring Mike Woodson on March 28th) led Moser to move on to Oklahoma,