Wimbledon’s final 4 men’s players, ranked by most likely to win the championship

Ranking the four remaining men left in the Wimbledon bracket by their championship chances.

The GOAT, the two most talented players in the history of men’s tennis, and an American guy walk into a bar. Except it’s not a bar, it’s a grass tennis court. And it’s outside. In England. It’s the Wimbledon Men’s semifinals—you get it.

The Wimbledon Men’s Singles draw has broken down into the coolest-possible group that includes everything you need in a Final Four. Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz will be squaring off on Friday to see who has what it takes to win tennis’ most prestigious trophy, the Wimbledon Championship, on its most hallowed cathedral, Centre Court.

You probably have questions: how will they match up, why is this so cool and who is going to win? Let’s break it down, with both scientific and completely-unscientific stats, from least likely to most likely.

4. Taylor Fritz

Career Grand Slams: 0

FanDuel Odds of Winning it All: 18 to 1

How Old I was the last time an American man won a major?: 7 months old

Combined Career Record against Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic: 1-16 (single win came over 18-year-old Sinner in 2021)

Does he actually have a chance of winning?: No.

Oh come on, are you serious with that?: Yes.

But what if he…: Shut up.

Fritz just made his second career major semifinal in the last calendar year, potentially signaling the 27-year-old is ready to finally win one of these and break the American men’s tennis drought that has lasted all-but-seven-months of my entire life. But let me tell you why that isn’t going to happen.

Fritz is a hostage to his ranking. He is an all-time grinder who plays in a ton of tournaments which boost his ranking skyward; he’s constantly ranked in the top 10, and recently has been a mainstay in the top 5 at Grand Slams. And he will beat anybody he is supposed to beat. But absolutely nobody else.

Tennis is very much a pedigree sport. You will not be taken seriously as a major contender until you prove you can beat the best players in the world in five set matches. Fritz has shown zero evidence he is capable of that, and (barring injury) he has zero chance of beating Carlos Alcaraz on grass. So even if he manages to overcome those odds, he will then have zero chance of beating Sinner or Djokovic in the Final. So basically, Fritz’ chances are zero times zero to the power of zero divided by zero. My calculator just exploded.

I want him to win desperately. I have been waiting for this torturous drought to end for my entire existence. But Fritz versus Alcaraz is like pitting a parakeet in single combat against a Velociraptor with a bazooka. And even if it wins, it then has to beat either a tiger with a laser sword or a great white shark. The drought won’t end this year.

3. Novak Djokovic

Career Grand Slams: 24

FanDuel Odds of Winning it All: 5 to 1

Age: 38 — 11 years older than Fritz, 15 year older than Sinner, 16 years older than Alcaraz

Is he the GOAT?: Yes.

Does that really matter in this situation?: Kind of.

Does he actually have a chance of winning?: Yeah…yes. Sure. Sure…

Djokovic is reportedly considering retirement, so we shouldn’t take this major semifinal lightly; it could very well be his last one. But man, this is going to be a tough sell.

There was a time when the Joker (or Djoker if we need to distinguish from Nikola Jokic) could and would beat anyone on tour once Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal began to wither away. In 2021, he had a real opportunity to be the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win a Calendar Grand Slam, or all four majors in a single year. He snagged three-of-four that year, and three-of-four in 2023. But in the six majors since, he’s been totally blanked by Alcaraz and Sinner.

Those two are Djokovic’s reckoning. While Sinner has yet to prove himself on grass, his current abilities far outshine anything the 38-year-old Serbian can currently muster. And then there’s Alcaraz, who is aiming to three-peat Wimbledon for the first time since Roger Federer won five straight in the early 2000s. The runner up for each of Carlos’ titles? Novak himself.

There is a path for Djokovic, but it’s not based in tennis reality. It’s based in the cinematic glory of somehow beating the two harbingers of his personal apocalypse back to back, and show the world that he isn’t done yet. That winning 25 Grand Slams to finally pass Margaret Court’s 24 doesn’t come with slow, methodical progress. It comes in an impossible blaze of glory.

2. Jannik Sinner

Career Grand Slams: 3

FanDuel Odds of Winning it All: 2 to 1

Confusingly-skinny limbs: 4

Hat?: Forward.

Elbow?: Possibly injured

Does he have a chance of winning?: Absolutely.

But how good is that chance?: Decent, but he’s not the favorite.

Sinner is the only member of the Final Four to come in with a legitimate injury concern — he hurt his elbow against Grigor Dimitrov in a match he was on his way to losing before Dimitrov himself had to retire due to injury. It didn’t look too bad against Ben Shelton, though, as the World Number One weathered 140 MPH serves and won in straight sets.

We all know Sinner can win this thing. He has taken exactly half of the last six Grand Slams, but only ever on hard court. He is shnasty, though, and has developed his game relentlessly to become more efficient, more compact, more unable to lose. He’s got everything.

Playing against Djokovic is the hardest his draw could have possibly gone, regardless of seeding. Djokovic has won seven of these things, and is clearly comfortable on the surface in a way that Sinner isn’t yet. But the difference in skill continues to grow with every passing month; Sinner keeps getting better, and Djokovic keeps getting older. It’s going to be a real chess match to see which wins: physical skill or surface experience.

But then that leaves Alcaraz, who Sinner will have to grind to beat here. We’ll get into why that’ll be so hard in a second, but Sinner is more than capable of forcing Alcaraz play his absolute best to beat him. If the Spaniard slips for even one second, Sinner will pounce.

1. Carlos Alcaraz

Career Grand Slams: 5

FanDuel Odds of Winning it All: -195

Wimbledon winning streak: 19 matches

Beatable on grass?: Probably not.

Vibes?: At an all time high

Does he have a chance of winning?: Is this a real question?

Yes, like how good is his chance just answer the question: Extremely.

Alcaraz is a fascinating character in tennis, if not sports, history. After witnessing by far the greatest era of men’s tennis with its three greatest players are battling year after year, Alcaraz pulled up and asked: “what if I was just better?”

His best comparison is probably Patrick Mahomes, who forced everyone to concede that, while Tom Brady was the GOAT, he was definitely the best human ever to play football. But this is even more clean cut: Alcaraz is more athletic, more tuned and more skilled than the Big Three ever were. They played within their era, and played a brand of tennis that brought dizzying success. But Alcaraz is better. He’s the upgrade.

Sometimes overwhelming strength can be beat with a curveball, with lesser players sometimes forcing Alcaraz to adapt his play on the fly to deal with a game he didn’t want to play. But he can always do it, and only Sinner has shown he can consistently confound Alcaraz, and only Sinner really has a chance at stopping this freight train. But it doesn’t feel particularly likely.

Sinner is bringing weird vibes and a tougher draw into this semifinals. Alcaraz is bringing his usual explosive game and ear-to-ear smile after completely eviscerating Cameron Norrie in the quarters. And coming off that French Open win, the whole world will want to see these two square off again. The data favors Alcaraz on this surface, but I just want to see them throw down.