How Jaren Jackson Jr. missing All-NBA could help the Lakers

It’s now far trickier for the Grizzlies to sign Jaren Jackson Jr. to an extension this summer, which could wind up benefiting the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. narrowly missed out on being named to an All-NBA team this year, which could prove extremely costly for him.

The Grizzlies’ loss might be the Lakers’ gain.

Had JJJ made an All-NBA team, he would have been eligible to sign a five-year extension worth up to $345.3 million this offseason. Since he didn’t, the Grizzlies can offer him no more than a four-year extension worth $146.8 million unless they create cap space this summer to renegotiate his contract before offering him an extension.

The Grizzlies planned ahead in that regard by salary-dumping Marcus Smart (along with their 2025 first-round pick) to the Washington Wizards at this year’s trade deadline. They now have the ability to create up to roughly $17.5 million in cap space this offseason, although doing so would require them to rescind the rights to all of their own free agents, most notably Santi Aldama (restricted) and Luke Kennard (unrestricted).

Conversely, they could keep Aldama’s $11.8 million cap hold on their books and instead create around $6.9 million in cap room, which they could use to renegotiate Jackson’s deal.

If they went with the latter route, they’d bump Jackson’s 2025-26 salary up from $23.4 million to $30.3 million. His extension could begin at 140% of his 2025-26 salary and could contain 8% annual raises from there, so he’d be eligible for a four-year extension worth up to $190.2 million or a five-year extension worth up to $246.2 million. From there, it depends on how much Jackson is willing to gamble on himself.

JJJ could decide to eschew an extension entirely to see whether he makes an All-NBA team next year. If he does, he’d become eligible for a five-year, $345.3 million contract from the Grizzlies. But even if he doesn’t make All-NBA next year, he’d still be eligible for a five-year, $296.0 million deal from the Grizzlies or a four-year, $219.4 million contract from any other team. The latter isn’t far off from the value of the five-year extension that the Grizzlies could offer him while keeping Aldama’s cap hold on their books and using the rest of their cap space to renegotiate his contract.

How does this all tie back to the Lakers, you might be wondering? Well, if LeBron James retires after the 2025-26 season, the Lakers could be in line for $60-plus million in cap space next summer. Not only could they afford to sign JJJ to a max deal, but they’d potentially have cap space left over to round out their supporting cast around him and Luka Dončić.

If the Lakers can’t find a long-term big man to pair with Dončić this offseason, would they view Jackson as the answer in 2026? Will they communicate that potential interest via backchannels before he becomes extension-eligible this summer? Could that goad him into declining an extension with the Grizzlies and betting on himself next year?

The Grizzlies could thwart that by offering JJJ a full max contract extension this offseason — the same value as the one he could sign as a free agent in 2026. To do so, they’d have to renegotiate his 2025-26 salary up to $36.5 million, which means they’d either have to renounce their rights to Aldama and Kennard or trade Brandon Clarke without taking much salary back in return.

If the Grizzlies go that route, could the Lakers convince Aldama to sign with them via the taxpayer MLE? Probably not, as the Grizzlies would have the $8.8 room mid-level exception this offseason if they do dip under the salary cap to renegotiate Jackson’s contract. Could they look to acquire Clarke on the cheap and reroute another contract to a third team to avoid taking back more salary than they send out and getting hard-capped at the first apron? That seems possible.

Either way, the Lakers will now be the bogeyman for any team with a star who can become a free agent in 2026. Teams know that LeBron is nearing the end of his career and that the Lakers will be looking to pair Dončić with another co-star once LeBron does retire. The Lakers figure to be careful with their long-term cap space this offseason with that in mind.

The Lakers might not wind up landing JJJ, but even the threat of them doing so could pressure Memphis into making a painful decision this offseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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