The Liberals may have lost seats in Ontario — and their majority — because of crime and Trudeau fatigue

OTTAWA — In the first weeks of the campaign, Liberal incumbent Helena Jaczek said decided voters she met at the doors were intent on voting for Mark Carney because they thought he was the best person to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“As time went on and Mr. Trump was less vocal, and perhaps as (Conservative Leader Pierre) Poilievre softened his image somewhat during debates, I think then a lot of the people who hadn’t given the election much thought decided they really had to concentrate,” she said in a recent interview with National Post.

“And then what we got at the doors was more of, ‘Well, it’s time for change, the Liberals have had their time, and I’m looking at alternatives.’”

Jaczek was ultimately re-elected in Markham—Stouffville — a riding she’s represented federally since 2019 — but most of her Liberal colleagues in York region were defeated by the Conservatives. In fact, she and Tim Hodgson are now the sole representatives of the 905 region which encompasses the cities of Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill.

There were other stunning losses for the Liberals in the Toronto area. Kamal Khera, who had just been promoted to Minister of Health in March, lost the stronghold of Brampton West in a neck-to-neck battle against Conservative candidate Amarjeet Gill.

And Ya’ara Saks, who formerly served as Minister of Mental Health and Addictions, lost her seat of York Centre by 12 percentage points to former Conservative leadership contender Roman Baber who had been campaigning for the Tories in the riding since 2023.

Other notable losses for the Liberals occurred in southwestern Ontario, including in Hamilton, Niagara and Windsor — areas acutely affected by the trade war with the U.S.

“I think it’s fair to say the reason that the Liberals didn’t win a majority is because they did not perform in Ontario as well as they might have hoped to,” said Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer for Pollara and former research strategist for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

“It’s really the only part of the country where their seat totals went down by any significant margin from the last election campaign,” he added.

The Liberals still ended up winning 69 seats, with 49 per cent of the popular vote, but the Conservatives managed to increase their seat count to 53, with 44 per cent of the popular vote. The Conservatives gained 16 seats, and the Liberals lost nine compared to 2021.

Arnold noted that the Liberals still managed to make some significant gains at the expense of the Conservatives Monday night especially in Eastern Ontario — picking up Poilievre’s Ottawa-area riding of Carleton and ridings like Peterborough and Bay of Quinte.

“But in York Region, in Peel region, in parts of southwestern Ontario, it was not a good night for the Liberals,” he said.

Liberal incumbent Francesco Sorbara, who lost in Vaughan-Woodbridge against Conservative Michael Guglielmin, said he heard concerns at the door relating to public safety and immigration but also years of “disappointment” about Trudeau’s government.

“Those issues are very important. And at the same time, the Trump factor and the threat to our economy and sovereignty were also talked about, of course,” he said.

A Liberal Ontario MP — who won their riding — said that Sorbara was one of the most vocal members of caucus on the issues of public safety and crime, but he and others were not taken seriously about car thefts and home invasions during the Trudeau government.

The MP said their party might have underestimated Conservatives, who were heavily focused on crime in the latter part of the campaign, because they were relying on the fear of Trump to drive voters back to the Liberals and form a majority government.

“We thought we could coast to victory because of that,” said the MP, who was granted anonymity to speak more freely about their thoughts on the campaign.

Jaczek said crime was not an issue that was raised in her riding, but noticed that it came up often when she went doorknocking in the neighbouring riding of Markham—Unionville.

She said the Liberal candidate, Peter Yuen, had statistics on hand showing that auto thefts and crime more generally in York region had decreased significantly over the last year.

Ultimately, Yuen lost the riding after a tight race against his Conservative opponent.

In a recent note, Abacus Data pollster David Coletto said that crime — especially auto theft — might not have been a top ballot question, but it played a “subtle but effective role” in York region. He said that the area had seen a spike in auto thefts in recent years, and though incidents declined in 2024, perceptions that crime was out of control lingered.

“Pierre Poilievre’s ‘tough on crime’ message—focusing on bail reform and organized car theft rings—landed well with suburban commuters who rely on their vehicles and felt their communities were becoming less safe,” Coletto wrote.

As for the Liberals’ losses in southwestern Ontario, Arnold said they can be explained by the collapse of the NDP which “did not move uniformly to the Liberals.” While urban progressives drifted towards the Liberals in places like Toronto and Ottawa, he said, blue collar voters ended up supporting the Conservatives.

“That’s how the Conservatives were able to win places like Windsor and Cambridge, whereas in more kind of downtown, big city places, the NDP vote is more white collar, it’s more traditionally progressive, and it broke more Liberals there,” he said.

Despite some losses in Ontario, Mark Carney’s Liberals are still ending up with a rare fourth consecutive term on Monday. They elected 168 seats — only four seats away from a majority government — in a historic comeback. Liberals who spoke for this article said they were grateful to Carney for leading their party to victory.

Asked during his first press conference since the election if Ontario cost him his majority, Carney said “arithmetically, yes.”

“But we could pick other seats that went various ways… Canadians voted for many reasons in different circumstances,” he said.

Carney said his priority as prime minister was to stand up to Trump and get the best deal for Canada, but said he also has other priorities that will be shared in his government’s speech from the throne that will be delivered by King Charles III on May 27.

National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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