What are the tire strategies for the F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?

A one-stop strategy is likely the preferred option in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, but might we see some drivers roll the dice?

Max Verstappen stunned the field to take pole position for the Formula 1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

But the job is not done for the Red Bull driver.

He, along with everyone else, spent Saturday night in Jeddah pouring through the data to come up with the best tire strategy options for Sunday’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

Let’s run through the options.

What happened at the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?

Last season’s race at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit was a rather dull affair.

Not only was it the second race of the 2024 F1 season — when Red Bull and Max Verstappen were at their most dominant — but Lance Stroll’s crash on Lap 7 brought out an early Safety Car and brought the grid into the pits. With most of the field starting on the medium C3 compound, most of the grid switched to the C2 hard compound, running the rest of the way on that tire.

Some drivers went with a different strategy, most notably Lando Norris, Nico Hülkenberg, and Lewis Hamilton. Those three started on the medium compound but stayed out when Stroll’s crash brought out the Safety Car, picking up track position and betting on additional chaos.

But when that intervention never arrived, all three dipped into the pits in the closing stages to make their mandatory tire change. Hülkenberg made his stop on Lap 33 and switched to a set of hard tires, ultimately finishing tenth.

Next to pit was Hamilton, who stopped on Lap 36. Stopping that late allowed Hamilton to go the distance on the soft tire, which was the same strategy Norris used, who pitted a lap later on Lap 37. Both drivers finished inside the top ten, but could not get by rookie super sub Oliver Bearman, who was making his debut for Ferrari in place of Carlos Sainz Jr. and was running on the hard tires that the team bolted on during his stop under the Safety Car.

What are the recommended strategies this year?

Again, Pirelli expects this race to be a one-stop affair. Last year the medium-hard strategy was the preferred format, and that is likely the majority approach this year.

Notably, Pirelli has gone a step softer with the tires this year, opting for the C3, C4, and C5 compounds. So while last year the teams that went medium-hard used the C3 and then the C2, this season that approach would use the C4 and the C3.

However, the tires have held up well at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit this week, and while Pirelli thought going a step softer with the compounds would bring a two-stop strategy into play, they concede that the robust nature of the tires this year means a one-stop is still on the table.

“From what we have seen so far, bringing a step softer trio of compounds has not significantly altered the overall picture,” said Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, after practice on Friday. “From the few meaningful long runs in the second session, we saw not much graining, and that only on some cars. Furthermore, it was clear today that this phenomenon remained largely the same from one session to the next, which means it could be a factor to consider when it comes to managing degradation during the race.

“In terms of lap times, the degradation level was essentially similar to last year’s, or perhaps just slightly higher. Therefore, it’s hard to see there being a major change in strategy, with the one-stop on paper the quickest route, while the two-stop is a bit more competitive than before but not sufficiently so to be a valid alternative.”

As you can see in the below table from the official F1 website, a medium-hard strategy sees the pit window open around Lap 16 to Lap 22, pushing the rest of the way on the hard tire:

But you will also note some other potential strategies, which we will discuss in short order.

What can Lando Norris try from P10?

Let’s start with the current leader in the Drivers’ Championship standings.

Lando Norris entered Saturday’s qualifying session as the favorite for pole position, given his performance over three practice sessions and the relative strength of the MCL39.

But a wobble into Turn 4 early in Q3 saw Norris end up in the wall, ending any dreams of pole position.

The McLaren driver will start tenth and might need to roll the strategy dice if he is going to threaten for a podium, given how overtaking has proven difficult in Jeddah the past few seasons.

Norris could opt to start on the softs, putting the softer compound to use over an early push stint, and then make his stop around Lap 10 to Lap 16, going the rest of the way on the hard tire. That is Strategy 4, above, and with one set of new soft tires available, this might be his best bet.

He could also flip the script on the medium-hard option, start on a set of the hards, and run as long as possible. Then pit around Lap 28 to 34 and use the softer medium compound, while the rest of the grid around him is probably on fading hard tires.

What about drivers further back in the field?

In Pirelli’s post-qualifying report, Isola noted something rather interesting. Several drivers have two sets of new hard tires remaining. Why might this be?

The chaos factor.

The Jeddah Corniche Circuit is one of the fastest street circuits in the world, and the combination of 27 corners, high speeds, and looming walls punishes mistakes. Since the first Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in 2021, there has been at least one Safety Car each year.

Isola believes the teams that are entering Sunday with two fresh sets of hards are betting on more than one Safety Car making an appearance.

“When it comes to strategies, we don’t feel the situation has changed since yesterday and it’s no coincidence that, although it’s not yet confirmed, the vast majority of drivers, 15 of the 20 to be precise, have all saved two sets of hards,” said Isola in Pirelli’s post-qualifying report. “The C3 [hard] seems to offer the best performance and, without too much degradation a one-stop strategy is on paper the quickest way, with the order medium-hard being favorite, pitting between Laps 14 and 20.

“There are a couple of reasons why many have opted to save two sets of this [C3] compound: firstly to be ready for any possible safety car situations, which have often been seen at this track and secondly, to have a backup in case there’s a significant step up in degradation tomorrow.”

As you’ll see in a moment nine of the drivers in the top ten have two fresh sets of hard tires. Only Carlos Sainz Jr., who starts sixth, has just one fresh set of the C3 compound available.

Near the back of the grid two drivers — Jack Doohan in P17 and Hülkenberg in P18 — have two new sets of hard tires available.

As Isola frames it, if you have to switch to a two-stop race because of Safety Car situations, it is good to have two sets of hard tires available.

“It’s interesting that teams decided to keep both sets of hard,” said Isola to the official F1 channel. “They shouldn’t be used in a normal situation but we know Safety Car probability here is quite high, and if you have to move from one stop to two stops, the hard is the best tire.

“I’m not saying the soft is completely out of the game – but if you have to fit another set with 15 laps remaining, hard is better than soft.”

You could see drivers like Doohan and Hülkenberg at the back of the grid start on the softs, and potentially roll the dice on a two-stop strategy given they each have two sets of the fresh hard tires available.

What tires does each driver have available?

This graphic from F1.com illustrates the tire compounds available to each driver, with SN standing for “soft new,” SU standing for “soft used,” and so on: