On the Lakers-Timberwolves series and why styles still make fights
The first-round matchup between the Lakers and Wolves could be decided by which team can impose their unique will onto the other.
More than stars, narratives or records, the NBA Playoffs have always been about matchups. Styles make fights — a timeless adage for good reason — is one of the biggest reasons the postseason is must-watch TV and why homogeneity in sports remains boring.
Among the compelling first-round series in both conferences, the Lakers-Timberwolves clash may be the perfect example.
On paper, the matchup is a classic fight between big and small. However, there is a caveat. One of the prominent questions surrounding the series has been how the Lakers’ small-ball lineups will fare against the Timberwolves’ size and vice versa.
While there is validity to the skepticism surrounding the Lakers’ reliance on playing heavy minutes without a non-traditional center, the dirty secret to how they’ve survived doing so is that they are not that small.
For example, the shortest Laker in their most-used non-center lineup is 6’5” Austin Reaves. Every other player in that group is 6’6” or taller.
In contrast, it can be argued that the touted larger Timberwolves are not that big. At least, not everywhere, as they feature two players in their starting lineup who are 6’4” or smaller, including 6-foot Mike Conley.
So in reality, the Lakers have leaned into a more medium-ball mindset while the Timberwolves’ traditional size is mostly found in their frontcourt.
To make matters less black and white, the teams also use their respective sizes far differently.
There should be concerns about how the Lakers will defend the likes of Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid and Julius Randle. But not in the classic sense.
As a collective group, the Timberwolves were only 14th in the league this season in post-ups and 18th in pick-and-roll man frequency according to the league’s tracking data.
More horizontal than vertical in their attack, the team instead relied on the dynamic guard play from Anthony Edwards and their strong 3-point shooting, ranking sixth in frequency of spot-ups and eighth in isolation chances.
Where the Timberwolves’ front-court size will present issues to the Lakers when Jaxson Hayes is on the bench is on the offensive glass.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Timberwolves snagged 30.4% of their misses when Randle and Gobert were on the floor this year. That would be the fourth-highest rate compared to the rest of the league this season.
This should raise alarm bells for Los Angeles.
One of the biggest downsides to playing centerless has come on the defensive end, specifically when attempting to end possessions.
Lineups that featured Luka Dončić, LeBron James, Austin Reaves and no big ended the year with a woeful defensive rating of 128.4. They also allowed teams to grab offensive rebounds 33.5% of the time. For context, both numbers would rank dead last in the league.
While this is concerning in the aggregate, the Lakers ultimately found a smaller group that can hold up in both areas. Their version of a death lineup featuring the big three flanked by Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith posted a defensive rating of 111.2 and an offensive-rebound percentage allowed of just 26.9%. Those would rank fifth and eighth, respectively.
Although the Timberwolves may not pound the ball into the post like a 90’s throwback, they will still put pressure on the rim by getting feet into the paint.
Between Edwards and Randle’s bulldozing approaches, the Lakers’ low-man help has to be sharp to offset their lack of a back-line deterrent.
Rotating behind and on the outside will be critical once their initial defensive shell is compromised. If Minnesota can blow by switches, draw two players boxing out Gobert or the Lakers opt to blitz the ball out of Edwards’ hands, this should create open threes for the sixth-best shooting team in the NBA. The Lakers will have to live with the knowledge they can’t take everything away.
It may seem paradoxical, but the Lakers present their own size challenges for the Timberwolves.
Even if some opt to refer to their non-big lineups as small-ball, they must concede that the Lakers may have the most bullying small-ball attack in league history. Regardless of shape or size, Dončić, James and Reaves love to pick on their opposition with grade-school cruelty.
In James’ case, this means backing down smaller players in the post. While they no longer have an Anthony Davis to throw the ball to on the block, the Lakers remain one of the most post-heavy offenses in the league.
According to the NBA’s Synergy data, Los Angeles has the sixth-highest post-up frequency, and James, in particular, is averaging the fourth-most post-ups per game among non-centers this season.
Teams need to put size on James or pay the consequences otherwise. That also applies to Dončić. Instead of attacking inside out like James does against mismatches, Dončić opts to size up his defenders in space.
If defenses switch against Dončić, he’ll play musical chairs until he finds his intended victim. If they’re smaller than he is, he’ll barrel through their chests or simply shoot over the top like they were younger siblings. If they’re taller than he is — hello Rudy — he’ll make them Samba before he creates enough space for his step-back. It’s pretty mean, but also great.
In 28 games with the Lakers, Dončić averaged 6.2 isolation attempts per game, the fourth-highest in the league. He scored an incredible 1.06 points on each possession.
When coupling the likes of James and Reaves, the Lakers finished the year as the fourth-most efficient isolation scoring team.
This should raise alarm bells for Minnesota.
Like the Lakers’ struggles on the glass, the Timberwolves had issues corraling their opponents one-on-one, allowing the seventh-highest points per isolation possession.
Dončić exposed this weakness in last year’s Western Conference Finals where he picked the Timberwolves’ individual and collective defense apart, averaging 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists on 47.3% shooting from the field.
Minnesota has several fiesty and versatile defenders, but many, if not all, lack the requisite size, strength and speed to deploy on each of the Lakers’ Big 3. At some point, you just run out of guys.
And this is what Los Angeles is banking on.
Each team has distinct advantages and disadvantages in this series, which makes it so much fun.
Will the Timberwolves be able to play more than one of their bigs if the Lakers’ perimeter players attack them in space? Can the Lakers downsize and contain Edwards while putting bodies on the Timberwolves’ frontcourt? Who will blink first?
The answers to these questions could decide who, and which style, ultimately comes out on top. Saturday can’t come soon enough.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social.