How the Raptors can make shots when it matters
The Raptors are betting everything on next season. They traded for Brandon Ingram, paid him, and sat him. They are strategically resting players to maximize their chances at a high lottery pick. Among the Raptors stars, the attention to detail has flown somewhat out the window as the season crawls to a finish. Punching the clock, as it were.
They have flipped the defense around completely — as they’ve been one of the best defenses in the league in 2025, and were the best defense in March — so, they have something to point to. Darko Rajakovic’s contract has been guaranteed — which doesn’t guarantee he’ll finish it out in Toronto, just that they haven’t considered looking elsewhere. They’re betting on next year. Big time.
So, how does a team that is bottom 6 in catch-and-shoot jumper efficiency, dead last in pull-up jumper efficiency, third worst at the rim (all per synergy), even begin to think about being good? Does Brandon Ingram, talented a shot maker as he is, even remotely paper over the chasm of on-ball talent that the Raptors have been surrendering to other teams? Well, probably not. However, the hope is that he is the figure that sorts the Raptors rather out of whack hierarchy, into order.
Keep in mind, the Raptors are ranked 4th in the NBA per Cleaning The Glass’ expected field goal percentage, which takes the average shooting performance from each spot on the floor across the league, and spits out how a team should perform. The Raptors take valuable shots, per location, and make very few of them. They’re also, last I checked, last in the NBA in points per possession in on-ball plays, and 5th in volume of off-ball plays used. Coach Darko is trying very hard to help this limited team avoid their, erm, limitations, but that’s an impossible ask.
A lot of times it seems like expected efficiency on shots is based around past experience for players, and I don’t think that’s an ironclad way to look at things. More than ever, in the NBA, the type of offense being run and the quality of on-ball talent is the biggest swing factor for how guys 4-11 shoot the basketball or finish at the bucket. Who makes it easier for the other players? How clear can the coach make role definition, allowing for players to thrive within them?
Basically, the Raptors have a: “Barnes is asked to do too much, RJ Barrett is asked to do too much, Immanuel Quickley needs to shoot more threes, everyone needs to make more shots” problem. And the short answer to fix this is, at least in part, is – Ingram with his above average playmaking, and well above average on-ball gravity will bend the floor to create:
- More open threes for the Raptors glut of role players (they’re middle of the pack in unguarded catch-and-shoot efficiency), and most importantly, Quickley.
- Passes to Barnes & Barrett in particular, to drive off the catch more often – where they both have more success as at rim finishers.
Let’s investigate these 2 points, and if it makes sense for them to improve.
In Ingram’s last full season (64 games played), the Pelicans were the 4th best team in the NBA when it came to 3-point percentage. As a team, they shot 45-percent from downtown out of Ingram’s isolations, and 39-percent out of his pick n’ rolls, combining to shoot 116 of 288 (40%). This isn’t necessarily a home run stat, because it’s also true that the Pelicans have shot worse from downtown when Ingram is on the floor, and taken triples less frequently over both of the last two seasons. However, Ingram is moving to a faster paced, more pass-heavy offense, so the hope is clearly that his gravity and passing can enhance the types of looks the Raptors get, without grinding the team into an isolation heavy squad.
This all seems feasible, because Ingram does have hefty on ball gravity, and he is a willing passer. The Raptors will be moving Quickley into off-ball actions more often next year and should be able to incentivize more motion from him without the ball. Read Louis’ tremendous piece on Quickley here. Also, just by proxy of looking at players like Ja’Kobe Walter & Gradey Dick who shoot 41% and 46% respectively on unguarded 3-point catch-and-shoot jumpers, for example – more open shots = more makes.
Both Barnes & Barrett have seen their unassisted baskets sky rocket this season, and they’ve both seen their efficiency take noticeable dips along with it. They were both asked to create, a lot, from a whole bunch of different places on the floor and in a wide variety of playtypes. Both players are shooting significantly worse at the rim this season in comparison to last, and they’re both shooting much worse from downtown. The answer for why with Barrett is really simple, as the amount of cutting and transition catch & go opportunities — where he was very efficient — have been decreased, and he was forced to pull-up more often – a weak link of his game. With Barnes, the 3-point stuff gets a little bit more complicated, but his rim efficiency is intrinsically tied to being able to attack off the catch, rather than off of his own dribble.
Ingram’s presence can bring back some of these off-ball opportunities for Barnes & Barrett, and on top of that can allow the two of them to get more of their creation reps against lesser defensive matchups and bench lineups as well.
Of course, on top of all of this you can expect a certain level of improvement from a team that boasts so many young players. Dick, for example, has seen his 3-point percentage dip this season, but that’s in direct relation to how much harder his shot diet got. Walter has improved measurably when it comes to hitting his C&S looks over the course of this season. Both Jonathan Mogbo & Jamal Shead have seen huge gains in their 3-point efficiency in relation to their college performances. Improvement can be expected to some degree for young guys. However, there’s contextual motivators here as well.
Is it likely that everything hits at once? Absolutely not. It’s pretty rare for a whole team to uniformly improve, as nice as that might be. From where I’m sitting though, I think there’s a strong likelihood that the Raptors are able to improve things measurably, just because of how many different places they could improve from. We’ll see. Next season hinges on some of this stuff.
Have a blessed day.
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