Checking in on Jamal Shead’s jumper
There’s a great burden laid at the feet of small guards in the NBA, and that burden is, roughly: “be good at everything”.
It’s not easy to overcome the size deficit that constantly surrounds you, but there is still some room in the NBA for small guards to find their way and carve out rotation minutes. Jamal Shead came into the NBA with an almost prodigious reputation for his defense at the college level, and to my eye (though anyone can disagree) he’s been a negative on that end to start his NBA career. However, I think his offense has been ahead of schedule, and that is largely due to 3 things:
- His quickness immediately translated to the NBA level, and is above average even for a guard, allowing him to transport himself around the court.
- He’s more than comfortable with contact, especially with opposing guards who are sliding with him on defense, and will establish contact to win 1 on 1 situations and clear out space for push shots and layups – where his touch has actually been alright (he’s shooting 47% on floaters/runners).
- His willingness to let the jumper fly from downtown.
I kind of want to dig into the third reason, because outside of his defense coming around (which it very well could) I think it’s the biggest swing factor for what happens with his NBA career.
The biggest shooting hurdle to clear, is hitting unguarded threes, and Shead has done so at a 41-percent clip this season. Whether it’s Jose Alvarado or Pat Beverley, the pest guards who hang around get put in the “prove it” camp as shooters and it’s a trial by fire. Shead is well on his way to moving through this one. His guarded C&S jumpers have been converting on 34-percent, and across spot up and transition threes Shead hasn’t wowed anyone, and this stuff obviously has to get better, but it’s fine enough for a rookie with a project jumper. There’s also very little of the catch-hold-launch process that often plagues mediocre shooters. Shead understands where he has to improve and he’s dedicated to getting his shots up when opportunities arise.
When it comes to the more difficult looks — like triples that come off of screens, or after a handoff, or out of isolation — Shead has struggled immensely, shooting a combined 5/26. This stuff usually has a lot to do with the moving parts in the body, and having to organize them while a defender crowds you – it’s difficult. On the whole, Shead is shooting 24-percent on his pull-up triples and 25-percent on his pull-up middy’s.
If we put on the shot doctor cap really quick (not a doctor, not a good one), it’s easy to see what’s limiting Shead’s effectiveness and volume with the pull-up. The vast majority of his pull-ups that go in come when he has lots of room and can use a pound dribble to jump stop into a 2-foot landing. Defenders go under screens/shoot the gap/whatever you want to call it, and Shead gets time to set his feet the way he likes. His feet are set at a dramatic angle which limits how easily he can set them, especially out of motion. He does a good job of getting them set in his catch-and-shoot shot prep, though.
This isn’t a death sentence by any means. Players with these limitations find room for themselves and their shots all the time, it’s just typically related to what else they can threaten the defense with, and how they can manipulate into space with their dribble. Kyle Lowry is a good example of a guy who constantly threatened with other types of creation, but also helped overcome the dramatic angle of his lower half by launching deep threes more often (and being damn good at it) and having a whole bunch of lift on his jumper.
If Shead continues to hit shots where he has space, eventually teams will want to smother that space, and Shead can threaten with downhill creation due to his quickness, and hopefully an improved playmaking repertoire. Once that cat and mouse game becomes an actual thing, then Shead will have opportunities to work on getting into his pull-up on his own terms. These players don’t usually become the high volume shooters — Immanuel Quickley is an absurdly efficient and talented shooter, but he’s also very particular about his feet and working on getting his volume up — but they can certainly become good and valuable shooters.
“I really loved Jamal in college, but it’s really tough to sell organizations on small guards. With Jamal, I do think if he has a coach that believes in him with minutes, and an organization that will give him a bit of belief, he’ll figure out how to pay that back with all the work that he puts in.”
Eastern Conference Scout
This is a lot of speculation about where Shead can go and what needs to happen, so I’ll end off on what has already positively changed. Shead shot just 30-percent from three at the college level, on a shorter line. Everyone on the Raptors raves about him, and his work ethic, and he’s already made a meaningful leap, improving measurably on his floater efficiency and his jumper efficiency. He has fairly simple mechanics up top. It’s pretty easy to believe in him becoming a good catch-and-shoot option at the very least. At least to my eye.
Have a blessed day.
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