Next Up - UNC

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06 Mar 2025 16:23

Feb 1, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) calls during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Don’t expect this game to be like the one in Cameron

Duke absolutely destroyed UNC in Cameron in February, winning 887-70. Okay, that’s a typo, it was actually 87-70. It just seemed like it was that bad.

Duke was up 7-6. Then it was 25-8. Then 40-13. In the second half, Duke was up 77-47 before UNC made a nice late rally that had Duke fans buzzing for a minute or two. If it had gone a bit longer, things might have gotten really interesting.

The rematch is going to be fascinating.

UNC went with a four-guard lineup in Cameron against the tallest team in college basketball. In February though, UNC coach Hubert Davis went back to a more traditional lineup with 6-8 Ven-Allen Lubin and 6-9 Jae’Lyn Withers. The hallowed tradition handed down from Dean Smith requires two bigs, typically a forward who plays a supporting role (that would be freshman Drake Powell) and the traditional shooting guard and point guard.

Check, check, check, check and check.

Davis is now bringing Seth Trimble and Ian Jackson off the bench, which ends their competition to start and that’s also worked out well.

A lot of people have pointed out that the Tar Heels are on a six-game winning streak, but try this instead: they’ve only lost once since losing to Duke on February 1st, and that was at Clemson.

And a lot of the wins have been substantial. Sure, Pitt was 67-66 and Syracuse was 88-82.

But NC State was a 24 point victory. Virginia was a 15 pointer. Florida State was an 11 point win, Miami was 19 and Virginia Tech was a complete blowout with the Hokies losing, at home, by 32.

Obviously this is not the same team. And without a Quad 1 win this season, it’s equally obvious Duke offers UNC that NCAA lifeline. And if you don’t think the Cameron Beatdown didn't stick in that baby blue craw, better think again.

Then toss Senior Day into that pyre of emotional jet fuel and UNC is likely to have a huge emotional edge as RJ Davis bids the Dean Dome crowd farewell.

Duke is going to have a hard time matching that level of emotion, but they may have a semi-secret weapon as it looks like Jai Lucas will depart the Blue Devils after Saturday’s contest to start his career at Miami. That could give Duke its own emotional jet fuel depending, of course, on how players react to his departure.

All that said, UNC still faces some serious challenges from the #2 Blue Devils. As we’ve heard all season, Duke is the biggest team in the country and UNC is certainly not that.

Khaman Maluach is 7-2, Cooper Flagg is 6-9, while Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James are all 6-6. Mason Gillis, Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster and Darren Harris are also all 6-6.

Patrick Ngongba is 6-11 and Maliq Brown, if he is able to go, is 6-9 (actually he’s 6-9 either way so never mind).

Over the last five games, we’ve seen some interesting patterns emerge from the Tar Heels.

First, rebounding is much, much better. UNC controlled the boards thusly in those games:

UNC-NC State

40/14 to 21/7.

UNC-Virginia

35/11 to 21/3.

UNC-Florida State

35/13 to 21-4.

UNC-Miami

38/10 to 26/11.

UNC-Virginia Tech

38/7 to 27/10.

How about defense? It’s not great but it’s better than it was:

NC State shot 45.8/33.3 percent and had 10 turnovers.
Virginia shot 45.3/27.3 percent and had nine turnovers.
Florida State shot 54/50 percent and had seven turnovers.
Miami shot 42.6/30 percent and had 10 turnovers.
Virginia Tech shot 37.9/33.3 percent and had 12 turnovers.

Rebounding is probably the biggest difference between UNC 1.0 and UNC 2.0 and that’s obviously due to the improvement of Lubin and Withers.

In the last five games, here’s what they’ve done on the boards.

Against NC State, Lubin had 5/3. Withers had 4/0.
Against Virginia, Lubin had 6/3. Withers had 11/4.
Against Florida State, Lubin had 7/3. Withers had 5/2.
Against Miami, Lubin had 5/2. Withers had 10/1.
Against Virginia Tech, Lubin had 11/3. Withers had 7/1.

However, keep in mind that prior to the lineup change, Trimble was the leading rebounder and he can still do it.

Finally, consider what Trimble and Jackson have done since both moved to the bench. Remember, Jackson had replaced Trimble as a starter when Trimble was injured earlier. Our sense was that Davis had a hard time balancing their roles so having them both come off the bench may be a brilliant solution.

Against NC State, Jackson had 12 and Trimble 15.
Against Virginia, Jackson had 16 and Trimble five.
Against Florida State, Jackson had five and Trimble 17.
Against Miami, Jackson had 11 and Trimble 10.
Against Virginia Tech, Jackson had 19 and Trimble 17.

What to make of all of that? We’d keep an eye on the rebounding and the bench scoring that Jackson and Trimble now offer, but otherwise, none of it really matters because this game is going to be decided emotionally.

We’ve seen all season that Cooper Flagg is not just an exceptional talent; he’s an exceptionally competitive person. Jay Bilas recently compared his competitive desire to Christian Laettner’s and also implied that while Grant Hill was in his opinion Duke’s best-ever player, even Hill didn’t do what Flagg is doing as a freshman.

Consider too that the three point shooting we’ve seen from Knueppel, Proctor, Gillis, James and Evans has made it impossible to double-team Flagg. You either risk giving up a two to Flagg or a three to one of Duke’s perimeter snipers. You can’t leave Maluach alone because at 7-2 he’s a constant lob threat and we don’t think anyone on UNC’s team except for Jalen Washington can get up with him. Certainly he presents major challenges for Lubin, who is a half-foot shorter.

Duke’s guards should be able to pressure UNC’s smaller starters and Duke’s overall size should make it more difficult for Jackson and Trimble to penetrate.

It wouldn’t surprise us to see Powell have a big game. At 6-6, he’s highly athletic and can compete with most of Duke’s defenders this side of Maluach.

Basically though, this game is going to come down to emotions and in that regard, UNC has a major advantage that Duke may not be able to match.

However, it’s also hard to match Flagg. Unless you have a young Lew Alcindor or Patrick Ewing stashed away, Flagg is the ultimate weapon. He’s like water - he just flows where there is opportunity and fills in the holes and that allows his teammates to play to their strengths.

If Duke shoots threes well, defends well, keeps UNC off the boards and stays out of foul trouble, it could be a great night for the Blue Devils.

Just don’t count your eggs too soon.

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Next Up - UNC

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