Next Up - Miami Down There

Is it a classic trap game?

Date 2/25 || Time 7:00 || Venue Watsco Center || Video ESPN

Duke goes to Miami Tuesday and while on paper it should be an easy game, in the ACC you never know. It’s the nature of the conference.

Miami is just 2-14 in the conference and 6-21 overall. The wins are over Notre Dame and Syracuse, both at home.

The ‘Canes were struggling under former coach Jim Larranaga, who called it quits the day after Christmas, frustrated by the new environment in college sports and by his team’s inability to play defense and rebound, among other things.

He was a brilliant coach but he was also getting up there. No 75, hopefully Larranaga is enjoying his retirement and time around his family. Our sympathies to Mrs. Larranaga, who now gets to enjoy the traditional adjustment of having a retired husband around the house constantly. That goes way up for a retired coach, who is basically working nonstop and year round too.

Miami’s been hampered by the absence of Nijel Pack, who has been out since December. A dangerous three point sniper, if Pack had been available, the ‘Canes would have at least been much more dangerous offensively. Between Pack and Matthew Cleveland, opponents would have been forced to pay heavy attention to both, which would have in turn given Lynn Kidd many more opportunities inside. It wouldn’t have solved the rebounding or defense, but on a hot night you can gun your way past a weak opponent.

Cleveland and Kidd are the heart of Miami’s offense. Brandon Johnson, a native of Raleigh who transferred from ECU, has helped on the boards, but is shooting just 40.3 percent. AJ Staton-McCray, who came over from Samford, has had some nice games for the ‘Canes recently, scoring 22 at Louisville and 21 against Virginia Tech last time out. Jalil Bethea has had some issues adjusting to college ball but he was a 5-star recruit for a reason and must be respected.

Thing is, anyone can get on a heater and if someone starts throwing up threes and hitting them, that spreads to the rest of the team.

Miami of course played at Duke on January 14th which seems like a lifetime ago. Duke won by 35. Miami had trouble shooting, hitting just 23-59 overall and 6-20. They only got to the line twice too.

On the bright side, the ‘Canes only had eight turnovers against Duke’s outstanding defense.

And for the Hurricanes, the good news is that despite the record, they’ve improved. They took Cal to overtime on the road, pushed Louisville, Pitt, Florida State and Virginia Tech until fairly late.

Clearly they’re competing. We don't know exactly why they’re collapsing late but at some point they may figure it out, and when they do, whoever is playing a six-win team is going to be under immense pressure not to blow it. We hope it’s not Duke but it’s likely to be somebody in these last four games.

For Duke’s part, coming off of Illinois is going to be an emotional trap. First, as we’ve said, Illinois is not itself right now. Against a healthy team, Duke might have won by double digits, but 43? Almost certainly not.

People always - always - make this mistake, not least of all in March: we assume that because a team hit peak performance in a game that they’ll stay there.

In reality, it’s not necessarily good news, because you will return to your mean, usually in the next game, and will have to win on grit, hustle and desire rather than the euphoria of playing at your peak.

So it’s certainly possible that Duke will beat Miami by 43 or whatever. With Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach, Tyrese Proctor, Sion James and a bench that’s essentially interchangeable with the starters, the talent disparity is real.

The emotional gap will be real too. Miami has a great asset because it was embarrassed in Cameron. Our guess is that they’re going to come out with nothing to lose and they’re going to play for pride and honor. It may not be enough to overcome what looks like a juggernaut after the New York mugging, but we don't think that it’s going to be as easy at it looks on paper.

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