NBA odds, betting preview (Feb. 21): Heat vs. Raptors predictions

The Toronto Raptors will return to action for the first time since the All-Star break when they host the Miami Heat on Friday night.

It’s been nine days since the Raptors suffered a lopsided 131-108 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game before the break. They have losses in five of their last six games, but they’re 3-3 against the spread in that span.

Miami, now without franchise cornerstone Jimmy Butler, stumbled into the break with four consecutive losses, going 0-3-1 ATS in that span.

This will be the fourth—and final—meeting of the season between these two Eastern Conference foes. Miami has taken two of the three meetings but is 1-2 ATS in those contests. Toronto won the only previous meeting on its home floor, 119-116, on Dec. 1.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s tilt between the Raptors and Heat.

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Heat moneyline odds	-150
Raptors moneyline odds	+125
Spread odds	Heat -3 (-110), Raptors +3 (-110)
Game total	Over 219.5 points (-110), Under 219.5 (-110)
Date/Time	Feb. 21, 7:30 p.m. ET

Betting Miami Heat (25-28 SU, 21-31-1 ATS, 28-25 o/u)

The Heat return from the break sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference, but their outlook for the remainder of the season remains bleak after the departure of Butler to Golden State, which acquired the six-time All-Star in a complicated five-team deal earlier this month.

With the theatrics of Butler’s departure now behind them, the Heat will try to rally behind Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo for a playoff push.

Herro dropped 40 points on the Dallas Mavericks just prior to the break. He used that momentum to win the 2025 3-Point Contest during the All-Star weekend festivities, becoming the fifth different Heat player to win the award (most by any team). The guard is shooting 38 percent from long range this season, averaging 3.7 triples per game.

Betting Toronto Raptors (17-38 SU, 32-21-2 ATS, 28-27 o/u)

The final 27 games should be very interesting for the Raptors, who find themselves at a crossroads between tanking for a high draft pick and making a push for a play-in spot.

Sitting 13th in the East, the Raptors are 4.5 games back of the final play-in spot currently occupied by the Chicago Bulls, and they also have the easiest remaining schedule (.399 SOS) in the NBA. There’s a path to meaningful basketball games in April, and Toronto’s front office certainly sent a message to the players on the current roster that it’s not planning a long rebuild by acquiring Brandon Ingram at the trade deadline.

On the other hand, Toronto finds itself with the fifth-best draft lottery odds in the NBA entering play on Friday, but the Brooklyn Nets and fading Philadelphia 76ers are very catchable in the overall standings. If the Raptors play anywhere close to .500 basketball down the stretch, they’ll very likely overtake both of those squads, lessening their odds of a high lottery pick this summer.

Heat vs. Raptors injuries

F Kevin Love (personal) is out and G Herro (shoulder) is probable for the Heat.

As for the Raptors, C Jakob Poeltl (hip) and F Brandon Ingram (ankle) are out.

Heat vs. Raptors betting trends

• The Heat are 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS in the past seven meetings.
• Miami is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games.
• The Raptors are 17-11-1 ATS at home this season.

Heat vs. Raptors player prop trends

• Adebayo has scored 18 points or more in eight straight games, averaging 23.1 per game during that span. His points line is 17.5 (around -105 odds to the over) in this one.
• Ochai Agbaji has scored eight or more points in five straight games, averaging 11.8 per game during that span. He’s around -115 to score more than 7.5 points.
• Adebayo has recorded at least one 3-pointer in seven straight contests and is -160 to accomplish the feat again on Friday.
• Herro has turned the ball over three or more times in six straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s +100 to commit over 2.5 turnovers.

Heat vs. Raptors best bet

• Adebayo over 17.5 points: -105 (best odds @ Betway). Adebayo really caught fire leading up to the All-Star break, and he’ll continue to have more offensive touches the rest of the season with Butler out of the way. He’s averaging five more field-goal attempts per game (17.3) in February compared to the previous month (12.3) while shooting a very impressive 52.9 percent from the field. His usage rate is also up to 26.7 percent from his season average of 22.9 percent during this recent eight-game scoring surge. Toronto is allowing 22.85 points per game to opposing centres this season (20th in the NBA), and with Poeltl sidelined, Adebayo will have a matchup advantage over any combination of Jonathan Mogbo, Orlando Robinson, or Chris Boucher.

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