How the Luka Dončić trade changes the Lakers’ post-LeBron James outlook
Life after LeBron James suddenly looks much brighter for the Lakers after trading for Luka Doncic.
The dust is still settling on perhaps the most shocking trade in NBA history.
We still have yet to see the fallout from the Luka Dončić/Anthony Davis swap, although longtime NBA insider Chris Haynes reported Sunday that LeBron James plans to stay with the Lakers past Thursday’s trade deadline. Even if the Lakers wanted to continue reshaping their roster by trading LeBron, his no-trade clause would allow him to scuttle any deal.
Either way, the Lakers just vastly improved their post-LeBron outlook by acquiring Dončić. They now have a top-five player to build around moving forward, and they could have enough cap space in 2026 to sign a new costar for Dončić to a max contract.
LeBron is still playing at an All-Star level, as evidenced by his 30-point triple-double against the New York Knicks on Saturday, but he’s repeatedly made it clear that he’s nearing the end of his legendary career.
“I’m not going to play that much longer, to be completely honest,” he told reporters earlier this season. “I don’t know how many years that is. If it’s one year or two years, whatever the case may be. I said the other night, I’m not playing until the wheels fall off. I’m not gonna be that guy.”
Based on how the Lakers’ contracts are currently structured, the 2025-26 season seems likely to be LeBron’s last year in the NBA. If he retires in 2026, the Lakers will have a nearly blank slate to begin building around Dončić.
As of now, Jarred Vanderbilt is the only Lakers player who’s under guaranteed contract beyond 2025-26. He’ll earn $12.4 million in 2026-27 and has a $13.3 million player option in 2027-28.
They also have a $4.2 million team option on Dalton Knecht that they figure to pick up, but their books are otherwise clean.
Dončić is under guaranteed contract for $43.0 million this year and $46.0 million next year before a $49.0 million player option in 2026-27 that he’s a virtual lock to decline. He’s no longer eligible to sign a five-year, $345.3 million supermax extension this offseason in the wake of this trade, but he could sign a four-year, $228.6 million extension with the Lakers.
If he decides to test free agency in 2026, he’d be eligible for a five-year, $296 million deal from the Lakers or a four-year, $219.4 million contract from any other team.
Either way, Dončić’s next contract will likely begin at roughly $51 million annually. That’s a full $7.5 million less than Davis will earn in 2026-27, which will give the Lakers even more financial flexibility heading into the 2026 offseason.
The Lakers were already poised to have max or near-max cap space that summer if LeBron retires after the 2025-26 season. Now, they could have upward of $69 million in cap room even after signing Dončić to his new deal. They’d have to waive Shake Milton and Bronny James to reach that figure, but they’d have only $101.0 million in salary commitments with Dončić ($51.0 million), Vanderbilt ($12.4 million), Knecht ($4.2 million), Austin Reaves’ cap hold ($20.9 million), the guaranteed portion of Bronny’s salary in 2026-27 ($1.25 million) and eight incomplete roster charges ($1.4 million each).
The 2026-27 salary cap is widely projected to land at $170.1 million. If it does, a 25% max contract will begin at $42.5 million, a 30% max will start at $51.0 million and a 35% max will begin at $59.5 million. Not only could the Lakers have max cap room in 2026, but they might be able to hand out a max deal and still have enough cap space left over to sign another impact player or two. They’d also have the $9.7 million room mid-level exception at their disposal.
Granted, all of this assumes that the Lakers can convince Dončić to re-sign with them. The Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat already appear to be angling to carve out max cap space in 2026 as well, so the Lakers might have to fend off some star-thirsty suitors. Then again, convincing free agents to come play with Dončić on one of the NBA’s preeminent franchises might be the easiest recruiting pitch in league history.
For now, it’s unclear who the Lakers might have in mind as their top free-agent target in 2026. Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler and James Harden could all become free agents that summer, but all four will be closer to 40 than 30 by then. De’Aaron Fox could be a free agent as well, although he presumably didn’t just force his way to the San Antonio Spurs only to leave Victor Wembanyama in a year and a half.
Jaren Jackson Jr. might be the top player to keep an eye on. If he doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season, the Grizzlies could only offer him a four-year, $146.8 million extension this summer starting at $32.8 million. That’s well below the $51.0 million max salary that he could command as a free agent in 2026.
If LeBron decides to continue playing through 2026-27, that could cause the Lakers to turn their attention to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić. Both can become free agents during the 2027 offseason by declining their respective $62.8 million player options for the 2027-28 season. Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are among the other players who could hit free agency that summer.
Before turning their attention to finding Dončić a post-LeBron costar, the Lakers first have to get him signed to a new deal. While Dončić is eligible to sign a four-year extension this summer, he might prefer to sign a shorter-term deal that would allow him to sign a 35% max contract as soon as he’s eligible in the 2028 offseason.
He thus might elect to sign a three-year max extension with a third-year player option rather than a full four-year deal this offseason or a five-year contract in 2026. Either way, he’ll be significantly less expensive than Davis for the next few seasons.
If the Lakers do manage to sign Dončić to an extension this summer, all bets are off about what comes next. As long as LeBron retires by 2026 or 2027, the Lakers will be in prime position to land another star to pair with Dončić moving forward.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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