NET News: The B-Stories Have Been Kind To Duke

Duke’s resume has gotten a bump from some recent developments you may have missed

Duke continues to take care of business as it comes to it’s tournament resume, with its latest beatdown of an ACC foe against Miami another boost to the all-important analytic metrics that drive the NET ranking. Duke sits comfortably at NET #2, behind only an Auburn team that the Blue Devils took down in Cameron.

But as Duke fans know well, what the Blue Devils can control is only part of the story. In recent years, other factors (the relative weakness of the ACC, surprising struggles from supposedly-marquee non-conference opponents, or the legendarily mercurial whims of the selection committee) have caused Duke to end up seeded lower than they would’ve hoped come Selection Sunday. But this year, hidden behind the Blue Devils’ dominance have been other storylines that are actually beneficial to Duke’s chances at an all-important No. 1 seed.

The most important is the reemergence of Arizona: after struggling mightily during the non-conference including a loss to the Blue Devils at home, the Wildcats have roared in their first season in the Big 12. They now sit atop the conference standings at 5-0 including two road wins over (at the time) AP-ranked Cincinnati and West Virginia teams, as well as a convincing home win over Baylor last night. The Wildcats have ascended to NET No. 13 as of today, meaning Duke’s victory at Arizona is now firmly a “top-tier” Q1 win rather than one that is hanging on to its Q1 status.

Meanwhile, the expected cannibalization of the SEC has begun. Just last night two NET Top 10 teams, Florida and Alabama, lost home contests to conference foes. Expectations for former AP #1 Tennessee also cratered following an embarrassing shellacking at Florida last week. If this trend continues, it will be hard for the SEC to claim two No. 1 seeds even despite their clear claim as the top conference in the land, even more so if Auburn continues to separate itself from the pack—which it continued to last night, annihilating NET #18 Mississippi State even without Johni Broome.

Indeed, while January Bracketology is a fool’s errand, those fool’s are almost in unanimous agreement that Duke would be a No. 1 seed if the season ended today. Auburn and Iowa State are the other two clear No. 1 seeds, followed by a hodgepodge of SEC teams, Big East leading Marquette and Big Ten leading Oregon (who have themselves struggled of late). All those teams face much more daunting schedules than Duke down the stretch, meaning the Blue Devils likely need only to “hold serve” in conference, perhaps alongside a final marquee win over Illinois, to earn their spot on the top line.