How can Texans clinch a playoff berth in Week 15?

The Houston Texans can win the AFC South this weekend. We break down how they can clinch a spot in the 2025 NFL Playoffs in Week 15.

The Houston Texans needed a late-season surge and a collapse from the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023 to win the AFC South. This year, they can win it halfway through December.

Even if they clinch, they will have something to play for until Week 17. They are two games behind the second- and third-place teams in the conference, but both the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers have some tough games coming up. Houston also needs to build some confidence heading into the postseason, and games against three potential playoff teams in the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens loom large.

Texans playoff berth clinching scenarios

The Houston Texans enter the week at 8-5, two games clear of the Indianapolis Colts at 6-7 with four games left to play. The Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, so going up three games with three to play is enough to clinch the division for Houston.

A Houston win over the Miami Dolphins and a Colts loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 15 is all it would take.

• Texans win AND Colts loss

Houston is a 2.5-point favorite at home while the Colts are 3.5-point underdogs to the Denver Broncos over on FanDuel Sportsbook.

AFC standings entering Week 15

1. y-Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. y-Buffalo Bills (10-3, SOV 59 wins)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, SOV 52 wins)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5, win over LAC)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5, win over DEN, loss to BAL)*
7. Denver Broncos (8-5, loss to LAC)*
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7, win over MIA)
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7, loss to IND)*
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)*
11. Cleveland Browns (3-10) — eliminated
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) — eliminated
13. New York Jets (3-10) — eliminated
14. Tennessee Titans (3-10) — eliminated
15. New England Patriots (3-10) — eliminated
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) — eliminated

Note: In the five-way tie between Cleveland, Jacksonville, New York, Tennessee, and New England, divisional tiebreakers first drop the Titans (loss to Jaguars) and the Patriots (common games tiebreaker to Jets). The Jets then drop behind the Browns and Jaguars due to the conference record tiebreaker and the Browns finish ahead of the Jaguars due to head-to-head. Then it’s the Jaguars and Jets, where Jacksonville wins a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jets and Titans go head to head after that, and New York beat Tennessee. The Titans beat the Patriots, so they are next.

Teams with an asterisk (*) have been eliminated from divisional contention
Teams with an “x” have clinched a playoff spot
Teams with a “y” have clinched their division