Week 13 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks, plus an upset special

It’s time to figure out your Survivor picks for the 2024 season. We’ll break down safe, value, and trap picks heading into Week 13.

Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate! And happy last week of November for those who don’t! Whether or not one chooses to celebrate Thanksgiving, we all get a busy week of football. It starts with the Thanksgiving tripleheader, continues with a Black Friday game on Amazon Prime Video, and closes with our remaining slate of Sunday/Monday football.

We saw a couple wild results in Week 12, highlighted by the Cowboys and Titans going on the road to beat the Commanders and Texans, respectively. We almost had a shocker with the Panthers taking the Chiefs to the final play of the game. Even though the Chiefs pulled it out, the Cowboys and Titans wins likely shook up remaining Survivor leagues.

I gave y’all some good advice on avoiding the Steelers, but my Survivor picks were not great last week. I listed the Commanders and Chiefs as safe picks. I did give you the Dolphins over the Patriots as a value pick. I went with the Chiefs in my last remaining league and barely hung on.

It’s now on to Week 13 and the holiday week. There are no byes, so we get 16 games to choose from this week. I’ve got my full picks below. There are plenty of options to consider and every week this season we’ll be breaking down the safest picks, the best value picks, and the potential trap picks. Starting this week, we’re adding another category: upset picks. There are still favorites to choose from, but with things winding down, if you want to get a little wild with your pick to go against the grain, we’ll call out the upset pick we’d consider in a Survivor pool.

Safest picks

Chiefs over Raiders
Lions over Bears

Divisional games can be tricky, but we’re reaching the point in the season where you need to take the plunge. The Chiefs and Lions are both double digit home favorites, and this might be your best week to use either if you still have them available.

Best value picks

Commanders over Titans
Broncos over Browns

This is probably the last week you’d use the Commanders due to their remaining schedule, so fire that one off if you haven’t yet. The Broncos have done consistently solid work against bad teams, and this might be your last best effort if you don’t want to use them against the Colts after their bye week.

Upset pick

Cardinals over Vikings

The Vikings continue to win, but it hasn’t been easy. And now they get a Cardinals squad that I don’t think anybody can really classify in the pecking order. Some weeks they look like world beaters, and some weeks they look like they can’t punch their way out of a wet paper bag. I suspect they give the Vikings trouble this week, so if you really want to find an upset to play, this might be it.

Trap picks

Bucs over Panthers
Texans over Jaguars
Bills over 49ers

The first two fall back into the strategy of avoiding road divisional games if at all possible. The latter is because of the snow. I think the 49ers probably get pummeled in this game. I’m currently a jaded 49ers fan, so if you think this is a safe play, go to town. But with potentially significant snow in the forecast, it might be wise to stay away from this game — especially because the Bills have some strong matchups remaining.