On the Warriors’ expanded rotation and how defense is both a cause and consequence of it

Dubs blow another double-digit lead.

Much has been said about Steve Kerr’s choice to employ a 12/13-man rotation — largely unprecedented in the NBA’s regular season, where a coach usually trusts around 10 guys on his team to play the bulk of the minutes. Kerr, who is known for being media savvy and somewhat reserved in terms of revealing deeper tactics at hand, previously stated the reasoning behind that decision as having several guys who deserve rotation minutes; instead of shrinking the rotation, he instead decided to play as many of them as possible.

While that rationale may be valid, I believe part of the reason for that increase in rotation size is related to the kind of defensive scheme the Golden State Warriors have been playing this season. Consider that they’ve employed a much more aggressive trapping coverage that mostly doesn’t discriminate in terms of who the opposing ball handler is. The Brandon Bostons of the world may have as much of a chance of getting the two-to-the-ball treatment as the Shai Gilgeous-Alexanders of the world. That scheme requires not only a high degree of communication and connectedness — it demands a ton of physical and mental energy, especially from the defenders in the back who have to rotate and compensate for the vulnerable window that trapping on the ball creates.

Not to mention that the Warriors have been part of the league-wide increase in full-court pressure frequency: compared to last season’s full court pressure rate of 16 possessions per game, the NBA is seeing teams send pressure at a rate of 24 possessions per game this season. Again, just like their aggressive half-court defense, pressuring the ball and employing high pick-up points require tons of energy expenditure. In that regard, expanding a rotation lowers minute loads across the board, allows for fresher legs to sub in, and (ideally) results in a more energized defense built for the aggression and vigor that the scheme demands.

However, would that really address the concern of fatigue? Is playing an aggressive defensive scheme inherently tiring regardless of how expanded the rotation is? Would that be too much of an accommodation given the need for more capable offensive players to be on the floor as much as possible? Is the scheme itself contributing to the lack of offensive juice that’s been plaguing the Warriors as of late, especially during second halves?

Kerr would be the first to deny that fatigue is playing a significant part behind their current two-game losing streak, in which they blew a 17-point lead to the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday and blew an 18-point lead to the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Rather, Kerr stated that it was a matter of execution, or lack thereof, that did them in. I don’t particularly think those two reasons are mutually exclusive: fatigue can result in lack of proper execution; a failure to execute can be mentally exhausting, which significantly contributes to overall fatigue.

The Warriors weren’t up to par with their defensive execution against the Nets, particularly with their trapping. While there were pockets of success against Cam Thomas:

Note the last instance of trapping in the clip above — particularly, the spacing that was created in the weak side with the Warriors employing a “roamer” to cover the short roll at the nail:

The distance between Thomas and Keon Johnson in the weak-side corner is called a “triple gap” — meaning that they are approximately three passes away from each other. Of course, a long skip pass to the corner means that, in reality, they are one pass away from connecting. But Curry’s presence on the weak side means a skip pass is at risk of being intercepted, or that the pass floats just enough to give Curry time to recover. Instead, Johnson dishes to Ziaire Williams at the nail, with Curry coming over to cover him. If not for Curry getting his hands on the ball, Williams would’ve had an easy pass to Johnson in the corner for a good look.

(Even so, the reset possession allows Thomas to blow by Moses Moody and kick out to the perimeter for a decent look that just missed.)

The Nets creating double and triple gaps like the one above played a huge part in their perimeter success, with the Warriors scrambling to cover those gaps but eventually not being able to plug the leaks happening all over the floor. This was exemplified by the same kind of gap creation that the Warriors weren’t able to stop further down the line:

Being able to cover a huge amount of ground in a short period of time has been a defining hallmark of this Warriors defense. But they were stretched to their limit against the Nets; what were once possessions on a string has been creeping eerily into overhelp territory. Some of that has been due to a reduced ability to get to the open spots on time, while other instances have involved ineffective point-of-attack defense — whether it’s allowing ball handlers to turn the corner in isolation situations, or pick-and-roll defense that has been too slow to contain one or both parties involved on offense.

Fatigue or lack of execution — whichever it is that’s plaguing the Warriors right now, it certainly seems dire at the moment if it’s also affecting their best defender in Draymond Green, who showed some cracks in terms of keeping his assignment from blowing by. While one can make an argument that point-of-attack defense has historically been Green’s weakest trait as a defender (relatively speaking), he normally doesn’t make mistakes like this:

Whatever the case, Curry — in his comments postgame — seems to think that a day of practice is what the Warriors will need for them to work on their defensive issues.

“You come up with some of the patterns that are showing themselves... if there’s a consistent pattern when we’re getting breakdowns on defense,” Curry said. “I think tonight it was trusting that there’s help behind drives, not overhelping, and then kicking out to shooters. We got to work on our communication and again the trust of how a five-man defense is supposed to run. At any practice window you have or any practice session, it usually builds that connection that you need, especially after a couple losses. Because we all got to be in this together. Nobody should run for the hills or press the panic button. Practice definitely helps keep everybody together because we got to talk out some stuff.”