Is Jakob Poeltl Set To Have A Career Year?

Jakob Poeltl sticks out like a sore thumb on a young, rebuilding team. Truthfully, big men of his caliber tend to find themselves on contenders or, at the very least, perennial playoff teams that need his unique blend of playmaking, defense, and finishing at his position. There’s a reason Isaiah Hartenstein inked a 3-year/$87M deal to join the Oklahoma City Thunder: non-star bigs who can do multiple things at a high level don’t tend to fall out of trees (or enter the open market after a tremendous season).

That is why many jump to trade conclusions. Could the Raptors flip Poeltl at this year’s deadline to a team needing his skill set? The New Orleans Pelicans need a starting center, and the Los Angeles Lakers want to add size. Can the Raptors capitalize and sell Poeltl off to the highest bidder?

I lean in the opposite direction. Sure, the Raptors could decide in February that, based on their record and prospective lottery odds, moving the starting center they traded picks for in 2022 is the best way to secure their long-term future. It’s well within the realm of possibilities. But with how vital Poeltl is to the development of the Raptors’ core, how well he fits within both their offensive and defensive philosophy and his own improvements, Poeltl may well be set to have the best season of his career.

Raptors fans saw firsthand Poeltl’s impact when he was sidelined last season. The Raptors went 4-28 in the games he missed. The team went from mediocre on defense when Poeltl was on the floor boasting a woeful 116.77 defensive rating to downright terrible without him, allowing over 120.5 points per 100 possessions. The offensive drop-off was even worse. With Poeltl, the Raptors put up 116.4 points per 100 possessions. Without him? 111.39. Which would have been in the bottom quarter of the league in the 2023-2024 season.

It goes underrated, especially in rebuilds when lottery balls are of the utmost importance, but establishing a baseline of competency is vital for a team’s development.

Poeltl is precisely that: the status quo within which the young players on the team can exist. We can look at multiple different rebuilds recently and find they get stuck there (in the upside-down where rebuilds last forever) because they don’t establish that baseline. The Houston Rockets went from a 22-60 team to a 41-41 team by adding Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to their young core to set the tone. And so many of their young players have looked better alongside competence. The Detroit Pistons have struggled to set that tone, and they hope that, with the additions of Tobias Harris and JB Bickerstaff, they can do the same this season.

Poeltl’s playstyle also plays a factor in this. He’s selfless offensively, doing the dirty work, setting screens for Immanuel Quickley, sealing off defenders to create driving lanes for RJ Barrett, and connecting with Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick on cuts off of high-post actions that are the bread-and-butter of Darko Rajakovic offensive system because he trusts in the wise big man to make the right play. His finishing in the short roll is elite — ranking in the 90th percentile among all players in his position in the short mid-range area, finishing on over 55 percent of his looks in his time in Toronto, according to Cleaning The Glass. Despite not being the jump-out-the-gym type, he still does well at the rim, finishing over 75 percent of his looks.

All of this makes life easier in the Raptors’ ecosystem. More than easier, it’s required for the ecosystem to even exist. It provides an environment that helps nurture the growth of BBQ and Dick. If Toronto were a greenhouse, Poeltl would be the sprinkler system, ensuring each player (or plant) is well-fed. Without him, growth could wither on the vine.

As the Raptors’ core players flourish, they’ll see more attention from defenses. Coverages will be geared towards stopping them and the best counter to that? Having a big man who can do the things Poeltl does: alleviating the pressure off his stars.

In turn, that’s allowed Poeltl to have a high level of production, and that’s shown so far in this preseason: a clean 14 points, eight rebounds, and four assists in 25 minutes in the Raptors’ final preseason game against the Nets, 15 points, 16 rebounds, and four assists in a win against the defending champion Celtics, 14 points, and 13 rebounds in the loss against Boston, where he was one of the only bright spots. His finishing around the basket has been superb, the push shot has never been more potent, and he’s connected with Barnes on a few beautiful pick-and-roll opportunities. Besides, this is all without Barrett and Quickley, who have developed some nice chemistry with their trusty Austrian big. The Quickley-Poeltl pick-and-roll, for example, should be one of the main pillars of the Raptors’ offense this season.

So, why will he have a big year?

Well, first, as mentioned above, the added attention that Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley will receive should put more pressure on Poeltl to deliver offensively. His touches will go up as a result, and there will be more opportunities for him to have bigger offensive nights. And now that the team is finally built around Rajakovic’s principles of motion, shooting, cuts, and passing, Poeltl’s contributions will be more relevant than ever.

Second, his impact on the defensive end (and the coaching staff stressing that end of the floor this season) will likely increase his minutes. Remember that baseline competency? Well, the Raptors want to establish that defensively. Poeltl has hovered around 26.5 minutes per game in his time in Toronto, but that could very well end up being anywhere between 29 and 30 minutes a night.

Add all that up, and you can expect a big year out of the Raptors’ starting center in terms of box-score production, on-off impact, and how he helps with the overall development of their stars.

Perhaps his excellent year incentivizes the Raptors’ front office to move him when he’s operating at the highest level. Or maybe they recognize the importance of his presence as they build toward the future.

Because that type of player? It’d take a lot for me to trade.

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