Which Raptors could be surprise breakout candidates this season?
Breakout
[brāk-out] noun:
A sudden advance to a new level.
Heading into the 2024-25 NBA campaign, the number of possible pathways and outcomes for the Toronto Raptors seems greater than in other years in recent memory. And a catalyst for that level of unpredictability is that the talent level of the roster, outside of a select few, is generally a question mark.
How much those uncertainties turn into…well, certainties will drastically change the trajectory of the upcoming Raptors season and beyond.
Most fans have their eyes (and hopes) locked onto the “BBQ” trio of Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickly, and what kind of improvements they show. Rightfully so, considering they’ll be accounting for upwards of 60 per cent of the team’s salary cap moving forward and are undoubtedly the core that’s being built upon.
But as much as the Raptors’ success this year (and beyond) relies on its core trio, how much the roster improves on the periphery will also make a difference.
Teams that eventually turn the corner start by exceeding expectations. And teams that make a habit of exceeding expectations are usually effective at winning around the margins. The Raptors for the better part of a decade were a shining example of both those things. Consistently outperforming their win-total projections and doing it thanks to a knack for developing depth beyond a starting five (refer back to the “bench mob” era).
Admittedly, a 125-98 exhibition win against the Washington Wizards isn’t anything to hang your hat on, but at least for one night to start the pre-season, Toronto reminded fans what competent basketball looks like thanks to adequate depth (shoutout Jamal Shead).
This version of the team, excluding a purposeful tank job, will need to find ways to get back to that standard consistently in order to accelerate the rebuild process.
Meanwhile, barring an All-NBA jump for Barnes or All-Star nods for Barrett or Quickley (all of which are definitely possible, albeit unlikely) any leaps forward by the trio won’t really be exceeding expectations, just meeting them. I don’t typically speak about players as commodities but for the sake of explanation, those three are assets the team’s invested in with an expectation they’ll appreciate in value.
Which is why I chose not to consider the BBQ trio as surprise breakout candidates, instead focusing on role players who are better suited to truly exceed expectations and subsequently sure up the margins of the Raptors’ roster. And in doing so could help Toronto make light work of its lowly 30.5 win-total projection this season.
Davion Mitchell
The former ninth overall pick enters the 2024-25 season as a prime suspect to break out for a variety of reasons, but two in particular. Mitchell will have an opportunity in Toronto that’s larger than any he’s had since his rookie year in Sacramento and will have plenty of motivation to make the most of it as he’s in a contract year.
The guard is set to be a restricted free agent after this season (should the Raptors and him not come to an extension agreement by Oct. 21) and although I expect him to get a second contract from an NBA team, how much they’re willing to pay for that opportunity will depend heavily on Mitchell’s performance in Toronto.
Most fans know the fourth-year player for his defensive prowess, and rightfully so, considering he holds a 111.7 defensive rating over his career. And Toronto fully expects to make the most of “Off-night” and his skills on that end of the floor with their ball pressure-centric defensive scheme this year.
Head coach Darko Rajakovic wants the Most Important Guy (a.k.a. “MIG” as he explained) on defence this year to be the player who’s guarding the ball, and fans should expect Mitchell to be doing plenty of that when he’s on the floor. If he can help lift Toronto to a respectable defensive rating after ranking 26th (118.1) the year prior, it’ll go a long way for both him and the team this season.
Meanwhile, Mitchell should also get first crack at the backup point guard spot and as I’ve written previously, there are indicators that he can take advantage of an increased role. For instance, the Baylor product has been a sound passer through his first three years in the league, posting a 2.95 assist-to-turnover ratio over his career.
Fans got a glimpse of that surehandedness on Sunday. Mitchell stepped into the lead guard role with Quickley sidelined due to a thumb sprain and looked comfortable finding his teammates as finished with five assists on zero turnovers.
Where he really needs to take a leap on the offensive end to truly break out is scoring the ball. Although the 6-foot-2 guard is coming off career-highs in 3-point (36.1) and true shooting (55.5) percentage, the sample size was small considering he played just 15.3 minutes per game last season and took less than five shots a contest. If he shoots those numbers in Toronto, it’s likely he’ll see a larger role — can he sustain that accuracy on more attempts?
In the Raptors pre-season opener he went 2-for-4 from the field (including a smooth snatch-back middy) but missed both his attempts from beyond the arc.
Although it was a relatively quiet statistical night for Mitchell, he lived up to his defensive reputation and checked the right boxes as a facilitator. His impact was undeniable and evidenced by a game-high plus-22 rating through his 20 minutes of action.
His per-36 numbers of 12.4 points and 4.4 assists from last season would be very welcomed by the Raptors this year, and well beyond anything the team got from the backup guard spot last year down the stretch. And while it remains to be seen if that’s possible for him to maintain with an increased role, those projections aren’t far off from his rookie campaign when Mitchell averaged 11.5 points and 4.2 assists in the lone season he averaged over 20 minutes a game.
Ochai Agbaji
When the news came through that Bruce Brown Jr. would miss time to start the season following arthroscopic knee surgery, one of my first thoughts was that Agbaji had been given a golden opportunity.
After joining the team courtesy of a deadline deal with the Utah Jazz last season, the former lottery pick underwhelmed in his first half-season with Toronto. Agbaji averaged 6.7 points and shot a dismal 39.1 per cent from the field and even worse 21.7 per cent from distance. And for all the physical tools and noticeable athleticism the 6-foot-5 wing possessed, he wasn’t exactly shutting down opposing players (117.9 defensive rating in Toronto). In fact, his impact on the defensive end was hardly noticeable as the team’s rating barely changed with him on or off the floor.
So, part of why he is a candidate for a breakout season is because the bar we’re starting at is already fairly low. Anything beyond a net-neutral impact would be exceeding expectations at this point. I had him behind Mitchell, Brown, and Kelly Olynyk in the rotation to start the year, scrapping with the rookies for minutes. But with Brown out and the Raptors focused on perimeter defence this year, Agbaji should be a noticeable part of the rotation to begin the season.
For what it’s worth, he’s typically been a better shooter for his career. His averages of 32.6 percent from deep and 74.4 percent from the charity stripe aren’t eye-popping but at least indicate he’s been able to knock down shots in the NBA previously. I expect (hope) those numbers will tick back up towards his usual levels of production.
On Sunday he did nail just one of his three attempts from distance but hey, one make on a 33 per cent clip is technically better than his 0.6 on 21.7 per cent last year as a Raptor… so, baby steps?
And while the 3-point scoring will be a big part of his ability to break out this year, how efficient he is at getting to the rim will also be a factor. Despite his obvious strength, size and flashes of effective cutting, Agbaji wasn’t the most productive finisher close to the basket in Toronto. He converted on 61 percent of his looks at the rim, 38th percentile amongst wings, and if we step back just a little bit to shots between 4-14 feet, Agbaji’s conversion rate tanked to five per cent (1-for-22).
That’s not NBA-level offence. It gives defences huge windows of opportunity to stop everyone else when Agbaji can’t finish in wide swaths of the floor. If these improve dramatically, he’s a breakout candidate. If not, he’s a waiving candidate. And like his 3-point efficiency, both were well below his usual levels of production throughout his first two seasons in the league.
Given that, do we just chalk up his underwhelming play last year as a negative effect of the mid-season move?
And going back to the Raptors’ pre-season opener, it was positive to see Agbaji look more comfortable around the rim, finishing three of his four layups, a couple of which were through contact.
Additionally, it’s no secret that he relies heavily on his teammates for his offensive production. In Toronto, 74 percent of his makes came off assists and 100 percent of his triples were off a pass, which is high for a guard. On Sunday all four of his makes came off an assist. The hope is that by playing alongside willing initiators off the bench like Mitchell and Olynyk, after having a full off-season and camp to familiarize with each other, the Kansas product can make good on some of his potential coming out of college.
The Raptors need defence and depth off the bench and in theory, Agbaji has the tools to provide it. If he can do so while getting to a respectable level on offence, his prospects on the Raptors get much greater. And while he’s not in a contract year like Mitchell, the Raptors have a club option for Agbaji next season worth $6.38 million. If he can’t figure it out this year, it won’t be hard for the team to simply cut bait and look elsewhere. The onus is on him now.
Gradey Dick
Speaking of Kansas products, the Raptors sophomore is another player I believe could be a breakout candidate this season.
I know most fans expect a second-year player to take a step up, but by how much is what’ll make a difference for the Raptors’ prospects this season. With Brown out to start the year and Mitchell likely taking the reigns of the second unit, Dick presumably falls into that vacant starting spot alongside BBQ+Poeltl.
There’s an argument that with such a focus on correcting the defensive woes of last year that Agbaji could see time with the starting unit but if the goal is to build around Barnes then surrounding him with an abundance of shooting and spacing makes lots of much sense.
Behind Immanuel Quickley, Dick is the Raptors second best 3-point scorer with a 36.5 percent conversion rate. The 20-year-old was even better from the corners, knocking down 48 percent of his attempts (92nd percentile).
Meanwhile, as concerning as Dick’s slow start to his rookie campaign was, he picked things up in the back half of the year and enters this year much more composed because of it. At media day he spoke about feeling less stress and anxiety — and a calm, cool and hopefully confident version of the former 13th overall pick should be an exciting watch for Raptors fans.
His potential on offence alongside four capable and effective passers in the starting unit is very high, but that’s more of a given. It’s what he can manage to figure out on the defensive end that’ll truly determine breakout status. Dick was undeniably a liability on defence last year. The Raptors’ defensive rating was 3.4 points worse with him on the floor while he held an individual mark of 119.1 for the season.
And although those are discouraging signs for a 6-foot-8 wing player, there is potential that he can be better on that end this season. For one, he’s put on weight heading into his second year. Around 15 pounds according to Rajakovic. That added strength should help him deal with contact more effectively. I believe it was less a matter of his willingness to defend that hurt Dick last season, and it was more how easily he got moved out of the way or fell behind on plays due to effective contact.
This is the same player who was tied for most charges drawn (five) on the team as a rookie, so putting his body on the line clearly isn’t an issue. In Summer League, he was rotating ahead of the ball and getting to his spots with pace. Which is why I believe that although he likely won’t be a plus-defender, he can at least make an effort not to be hunted on that end this season. Given an off-season to really catch up to the speed of the NBA game — if he can take advantage of his size on the perimeter — it’ll make all the difference.
On Sunday, we saw even more flashes of how he’s improved defensively. The footspeed was noticeably quicker and helped him both at the point of attack and in passing lanes. He was recovering on his defensive assignments with more zip and it helped disrupt Washington’s flow. That added weight also came in handy as he was able to bump off opponents and stay involved on plays defensively (fighting through a Jonas Valanciusnas is no easy task!).
What makes the trio I selected as my candidates for surprise breakouts even more intriguing is that even if just one of them really pops off this season, it should help raise the game of the other two.
All three will likely spend lots of time together coming off the bench for the Raptors, and although Mitchell started on Sunday, we got a glimpse of what to expect. There were two different stretches in the third quarter with all of Mitchell, Agbaji and Dick on the floor (equalling roughly five minutes) and the results were generally positive.
Offence looked sharp as the Raptors shot 8-for-10 from the field through those stints, taking advantage of some great spacing albeit against a moribund Wizards defence. Agbaji even got a pair of layups off assists from Dick, notably a nifty bounce pass in transition resulting in an and-one finish. On the other end, Toronto’s defence was alright in that span as it held Washington to 4-of-9 shooting, but wasn’t anything to write home about.
This season is all about development for the Raptors, but it can’t just be for the core of the roster. It has to extend to the margins. At media day Rajakovic spoke about building a strong foundation for the house moving forward, and if that’s the case, it’ll require more than three building blocks and a seven-foot slab of Austrian pine — support beams are necessary!
And I believe Mitchell, Agbaji and Dick are among those who have the right combination of opportunity and potential to set themselves up to be a part of that foundation. If Mitchell or Agbaji can score at higher and more efficient clips and Dick can get involved in Toronto’s disruptive defensive style, their impact shifts dramatically…and so does the rebuild timeline.
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