Fantasy football start/sit advice for Ravens vs. Chiefs to kick off the 2024 NFL season
A fantasy look inside the AFC Championship rematch
The NFL is back, baby! More good news: The league is spoiling us right off the bat with a stellar matchup in the Thursday night opener. The Chiefs and Ravens faced off just eight months ago in rainy Baltimore for the 2024 AFC Championship game, with Kansas City pulling out a hard-fought 17-10 win on its way to a second consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Both teams are among the AFC favorites again this season, and the Chiefs will be trying to pull-off the first-ever three-peat in the Super Bowl era.
That AFC title game was played in cold and wet weather, which probably helped to depress the score. This time, the game is in Kansas City and while there is the possibility of some rain, weather shouldn’t much of a factor. It’s the second straight year that the Chiefs are hosting the Thursday night opener. Last year, they lost a nail-biter to the upstart Lions, 21–20, but they played that game without Travis Kelce. Also, Chiefs’ receivers treated the football like it was a live rat and dropped a slew of passes, an issue that plagued the team throughout the season. Tonight’s game probably matters more for the Ravens, but both teams would love to start the season with a win, and to have a head-to-head win in its back pocket when it comes time for playoff seeding. The Chiefs are favored by three points, the standard home-field advantage among equal opponents.
OK, enough with the setup. It’s a big game. We’re here to talk about fantasy football! From that standpoint, this should be a fun one, as some of the most prominent names in the game will be on the field. But fantasy managers probably should temper expectations a bit. For one thing, it’s Week 1, and we often see offenses struggle a little right out of the gate. But there’s also this: The Ravens and Chiefs ranked first and second last year in fewest points allowed, with the Ravens allowing just 15.5 points per game and the Chiefs a shade behind at 15.8. Both defenses should again be among the league’s best units. The Vegas total for tonight’s game is 47.5—not low, but not that high either. This likely won’t be a shootout, but there should be more points than the paltry 27 that we got in January.
If you drafted any of the big fantasy guns on these teams, it’s unlikely that you have a better option, and you’re clicking them into your lineup without much forethought. You drafted those guys to be weekly starters, and my general advice is to play your best players, and not get cute. But there could be some decisions to make, so let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are two of the biggest names in the sport, and in fantasy. They’ve each won two NFL MVP awards in the last six seasons, and they’ve each had at least one season as the overall QB1 in fantasy. Mahomes averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game (FPPG) last year. Not only was that a full seven points below his average from the year before (when he finished as the overall QB1, and Player1, in fantasy), it was his only average below 20 FPPG since he became the Chiefs’ starter in 2018. He finished as the QB10 for the season on a FPPG basis and that’s an aberration for him. With the additions (and subtractions … hello, Kadarius Toney) that the Chiefs made to their receiving room this off-season, Mahomes is widely expected to revert to Top-5 form. However, he won’t have one of those shiny new additions, Hollywood Brown (shoulder), in this contest. It’s also a very difficult matchup. The Ravens yielded just 18 TD passes all of last season, and only the Jets allowed fewer FPPG to QBs in 2023. Mahomes is a solid start this week, and he can always erupt for a massive game, but there will be better days ahead.
Reigning NFL MVP Jackson finished last season as the QB3 and projects to run and throw his way to another outstanding campaign. I don’t think he’ll hit his ceiling this week either, as the Chiefs are also a tough matchup. They allowed just 19 TD passes last year, and were a top 10 unit in terms of FPPG allowed to QBs. He’s a decent start this week, of course, but as with Mahomes, temper expectations.
Running Backs
Surprise, surprise, K.C. and Baltimore’s defenses both were among the top-7 units last season in terms of allowing the fewest FPPG to running backs. But I think Derrick Henry and Isiah Pacheco are both solid plays this week, and each should dominate his team’s RB touches. The Ravens inexplicably only gave eight carries to their running backs in the AFC Championship game (including just two in the entire second half) in a game where they never trailed by more than 10 points. It almost feels like the Henry acquisition was a direct response to that failure. He’s in his age 30 season and for the first time in a long time, will be running behind a strong line, in a favorable scheme. He’ll also have the benefit of the threat of Jackson alongside him in the backfield. Baltimore runners have routinely been at or near the league lead in yards per carry and yards before contact, and they haven’t had a downhill bruiser like Henry. I expect Baltimore to commit to the run, and unless the game gets away from them in the first half, Henry should have a busy night in his Ravens debut. I also think he’ll find the end zone at least once.
As for Pacheco, he has little competition for carries and while Samaje Perine might take some of the third down and passing work, he’s a brand new arrival, and they clearly trust Pacheco. He had at least 24 touches in three of their four post-season games, including 28 against these same Ravens. He’ll get plenty of rushing opportunities in this game, including whatever red zone and goal-line chances there are, and he should also see a few targets from Mahomes. Start him with confidence.
None of the backup RBs warrant consideration this week.
Wide Receivers
Here’s where it gets a bit interesting. If you drafted either Rashee Rice or Zay Flowers, you almost certainly took them as your second or third receiver, with the expectation that they’d be weekly starters. I think they’re both decent plays this week. Rice emerged as the Chiefs’ top WR target late last year and was the WR10 from weeks 11-17 (Half PPR). He appears to have avoided a suspension for now and with Brown missing this game, is a must-start.
Flowers is also a good start this week. He was the Ravens’ leading WR as a rookie in 2023, and the team didn’t add much at the position this off-season. He had a strong outing vs the Chiefs in the AFC title game, with 5 catches for 115 yards. He also came within a Raven’s beak of scoring what would’ve been a pivotal touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter, but fumbled at the goal line. “That sucked”, quoth the Raven fans. Actually, their expletives were much, much worse. And don’t think Flowers has forgotten that play either.
Chiefs’ rookie speedster Xavier Worthy presents an interesting dilemma for fantasy managers this week. On the one hand, he’s a rookie making his NFL debut, and we don’t really know how the Chiefs plan to use him, what his snap or target share will be, or what to expect. Rookie receivers often take a few games to hit their stride. Justin Jefferson, who was selected in the same range of the NFL draft as Worthy, didn’t make any noise until week 3 of his outstanding rookie season. But on the other hand, with Brown likely out, he should get more opportunities right away, plus with his blazing speed you might only need one big play for him to outscore whoever you’re also considering. It obviously depends on your roster, and in Week 1, with no byes and very few players injured, you’ve probably got your entire roster at your disposal. But Brown’s injury creates the opportunity you want, and if you can find a way to get Worthy into your lineup without sacrificing too much, I think it’s worth a shot.
I don’t see any reason to try to force any of the other receivers into your lineup this week. We keep hearing that “this is the year” for Rashod Bateman, but if you rostered him, he’s a stash, so be smart and stash him for now. The remainder of receivers on both squads are most likely sitting on your waiver wire at the moment, and not your bench.
Tight Ends
Like QB and RB, this is a no-brainer. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are both Top-5 options at the position (if not higher). Start ‘em if you’ve got ‘em. Andrews was in a car accident during the summer and didn’t practice for two weeks after that, but he’s good to go. Kelce had a monster performance in the AFC title game (11-116-1), and while the Chiefs figure to again manage his load throughout the season, the soon-to-be 35 year-old future hall of famer is still a must-start every week. The backup tight ends aren’t worth considering as long as the starters are healthy.
Kickers
This is another easy call. Both kickers should be fired up without a moment’s thought. If you have one of them, you had to be among the very first in your league to select a kicker. We can talk about the wisdom of that at another time. They each kicked just one field goal in the AFC championship game, but I would expect multiple attempts for both, given the quality of the defenses and better weather. Justin Tucker (90.2%) and Harrison Butker (89.1%) sit first and second all-time in field goal accuracy. Yes, you read that right. Both are also capable of hitting from long range, so bonus points are in play.
D/ST
It’s Week 1, and nobody is carrying two defense/special teams. If you drafted one of these units, you’re playing them. Period. It’s not the best matchup for either one.
That’s all I’ve got. Enjoy tonight’s game, and good luck with your fantasy teams this week and throughout the season. My full fantasy preview for Week 1 will be running on SBNation sister site Big Blue View later today, and my Waiver Wire column will run there on Monday, so please check those out!